Friday, August 20, 2010

Huge miss coming on Existing Home Sales?

by Bill McBride on 8/20/2010 03:20:00 PM

MarketWatch is reporting the consensus for July existing home sales is 4.85 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate).

And from Dow Jones: Week Ahead

"July existing-home sales ... likely declined 4.3% from June"
June sales were reported as 5.37 million, so a decline of 4.3% would be 5.14 million SAAR.

Note: July existing home sales will be reported next Tuesday.

Housing economist Tom Lawler's preliminary forecast was 3.95 million SAAR (based on a bottom up analysis).

Many of the regional reports showed sales declines of 20% or more from July 2009 when the NAR reported sales of 5.14 million SAAR. A 20% decline from July 2009 would be in the low 4 millions ...

Maybe the MarketWatch and Dow Jones consensus numbers are incorrect (other numbers will be released later today), or there is probably going to be a big miss next Tuesday. Take the WAY under!

Next week will be VERY busy - I'll have more in the weekly preview on Sunday.