Saturday, August 07, 2010

Duration of Unemployment

by Bill McBride on 8/07/2010 07:35:00 PM

An update by request ...

Unemployment Duration Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the duration of unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force. The graph shows the number of unemployed in four categories: less than 5 week, 6 to 14 weeks, 15 to 26 weeks, and 27 weeks or more.

Note: The BLS reports 15+ weeks, so the 15 to 26 weeks number was calculated.

In July 2010, the number of unemployed for 27 weeks or more declined slightly to 6.572 million (seasonally adjusted) from 6.751 million in June. It is possible that the number of long term unemployed has peaked, but it is still very difficult for these people to find a job - and this is a very serious employment issue.

The less than 5 weeks category increased in July and is now at the highest level since January - and that is concerning.

Note: Even though these numbers are all seasonally adjusted, they can't be added together to calculate the unemployment rate.

Employment posts yesterday (with many graphs):

  • July Employment Report: 12K Jobs ex-Census, 9.5% Unemployment Rate for graphs of unemployment rate and a comparison to previous recessions.
  • Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks
  • Employment Report: Temporary Help and Diffusion Index