Friday, August 06, 2010

July Employment Report: 12K Jobs ex-Census, 9.5% Unemployment Rate

by Bill McBride on 8/06/2010 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 131,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Federal government employment fell, as 143,000 temporary workers hired for the decennial census completed their work. Private-sector payroll employment edged up by 71,000.
Census 2010 hiring decreased 143,000 in July. Non-farm payroll employment increased 12,000 in July ex-Census. Also June was revised down sharply to 267,000 221,000 jobs lost (revised from 125,000 jobs lost).

Employment Measures and Recessions Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the unemployment rate and the year over year change in employment vs. recessions.

Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 131 thousand in July. The economy has lost 52 thousand jobs over the last year, and 7.7 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007.

Ex-Census hiring, the economy added 12,000 jobs in July. The unemployment rate was steady at 9.5 percent.

Percent Job Losses During Recessions The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms (as opposed to the number of jobs lost).

The dotted line is ex-Census hiring. The two lines will rejoin later this year when the Census hiring is unwound.

For the current employment recession, employment peaked in December 2007, and this recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and 2nd worst in terms of the unemployment rate (only early '80s recession with a peak of 10.8 percent was worse).

This is a very weak report, especially considering the downward revision to June. The participation rate declined again, and that is why the unemployment rate was steady - and that is bad news. I'll have much more soon ...

Update: there is much more in the next post: Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks

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