Saturday, July 03, 2010

Double Dip Search Trends

by Bill McBride on 7/03/2010 08:53:00 AM

From Google Trends, search trend on "double dip"...

Teen Employment

It appears the 2nd half slowdown is here, but I think the U.S. will avoid a technical "double-dip" recession. As I noted last week, for the unemployed and marginally employed, and for many other Americans suffering with too much debt or stagnant real incomes, there is little difference between slower growth and a double-dip recession.

And a repeat of a couple graphs from yesterday ...

Percent Job Losses During Recessions Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession in percentage terms.

The dotted line shows the impact of Census hiring. In May, there were 339,000 temporary 2010 Census workers on the payroll. The number of Census workers will continue to decline - and the gap between the solid and dashed red lines will be mostly closed in three or four months.

Employment Population Ratio This graph shows the employment-population ratio; this is the ratio of employed Americans to the adult population.

The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 58.5% in June from 58.7% in May. This had been increasing after plunging since the start of the recession, and the recovery in the Employment-Population ratio was considered a good sign - but the ratio has now decreased for two consecutive months.

Note: the graph doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Employment posts yesterday:
  • June Employment Report: 100K Jobs ex-Census, 9.5% Unemployment Rate for graphs of unemployment rate and a comparison to previous recessions.
  • Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks with graphs - including recessions aligned at bottom.
  • Employment Report: Temporary Help and Diffusion Index
  • Fewest Teen Jobs added in June since 1951
  • Last 10 Posts