Friday, July 02, 2010

June Employment Report: 100K Jobs ex-Census, 9.5% Unemployment Rate

by Bill McBride on 7/02/2010 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 125,000 in June, and the unemployment rate edged down to 9.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The decline in payroll employment reflected a decrease (-225,000) in the number of temporary employees working on Census 2010. Private-sector payroll employment edged up by 83,000.
Census 2010 hiring decreased 225,000 in June. Non-farm payroll employment increased 100,000 in June ex-Census.

Employment Measures and Recessions Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the unemployment rate and the year over year change in employment vs. recessions.

Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 125 thousand in June. The economy has lost 170 thousand jobs over the last year, and 7.5 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007.

Ex-Census hiring, the economy added 100,000 jobs in June. The unemployment rate fell to 9.5 percent.

Percent Job Losses During Recessions The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms (as opposed to the number of jobs lost).

The dotted line is ex-Census hiring. The two lines will rejoin later this year when the Census hiring is unwound.

For the current employment recession, employment peaked in December 2007, and this recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and 2nd worst in terms of the unemployment rate (only early '80s recession with a peak of 10.8 percent was worse).

The decrease in the unemployment rate was because of a decline in the participation rate - and that is not good news. Although better than May, this is still a weak report. I'll have much more soon ...

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