Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Ceridian-UCLA: Diesel Fuel index Falls Sharply in June

by Bill McBride on 7/13/2010 08:20:00 AM

This is the new UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce IndexTM

Press Release: Amid Fears of Double-Dip Recession, PCI Falls Sharply in June

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management tumbled 1.9 percent in June after its impressive 3.1 percent gain in May.
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“While June’s number is substantially down, erasing two-thirds of May’s great gain, the daily and weekly activity on which the monthly PCI is based does not suggest that the economy is heading over a cliff,” said [PCI Chief Economist Edward Leamer]. “Part of the apparent strength of May and weakness in June is the result of the Memorial Day holiday occurring on the last day of May, allowing the negative Memorial Day effect which is usually confined to May to leak into June. More importantly, the June weakness was confined to the first two weeks, and by the second half of June, we were seeing strong growth again.”
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The PCI is based on an analysis of real-time diesel fuel consumption data ...
Pulse of Commerce Index Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the index since January 1999.

The decline in June is just one month (partially offsetting the large increase in May), and the three month average is still increasing.

Note: This index appears to lead Industrial Production (IP), but there is a significant amount of monthly noise. This is a new index and is something to follow along with other transportation data.