Wednesday, May 26, 2010

New Home Sales increase to 504K Annual Rate in April

by Bill McBride on 5/26/2010 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 504 thousand. This is an increase from the revised rate of 439 thousand in March (revised from 411 thousand).

New Home Sales Monthly Not Seasonally Adjusted Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows monthly new home sales (NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted).

Note the Red columns for 2010. In April 2010, 48 thousand new homes were sold (NSA).

The record low for the month of April was 32 thousand in 1982 and 2009; the record high was 116 thousand in 2005.

New Home Sales and Recessions The second graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions for the last 45 years.

Sales of new one-family houses in April 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000 ... This is 14.8 percent (±19.5%)* above the revised March rate of 439,000 and is 47.8 percent (±26.0%) above the April 2009 estimate of 341,000.
And another long term graph - this one for New Home Months of Supply.

New Home Months of Supply and RecessionsMonths of supply declined to 5.0 in April from 6.2 in March. This is significantly below the all time record of 12.4 months of supply set in January 2009. This would be about normal, except the months of supply will increase next month when sales decline.
The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 211,000. This represents a supply of 5.0 months at the current sales rate.
New Home Sales Inventory The final graph shows new home inventory.

New home sales are counted when the contract is signed, so this pickup in activity is related to the tax credit.

For new home sales, the tax credit selling ended in April and sales will probably decline sharply in May.