Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Case Shiller House Prices Increase Slightly in November

by Bill McBride on 1/26/2010 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released their monthly Home Price Indices for November this morning.

This monthly data includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (10 cities and 20 cities). This is the Seasonally Adjusted data - some sites report the NSA data.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 30.4% from the peak, and up about 0.2% in November.

The Composite 20 index is off 29.5% from the peak, and up 0.2% in November.

NOTE: S&P reported this as "down", but they were using the NSA data.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 is off 4.5% from November 2008.

The Composite 20 is off 5.3% from November 2008.

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Case-Shiller Price Declines Prices decreased (SA) in 6 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in October.

In Las Vegas, house prices have declined 56.2% from the peak. At the other end of the spectrum, prices in Dallas are only off about 4.6% from the peak. Several cities are showing price increases in 2009 including San Diego, San Francisco, Denver and Dallar. Prices have declined by double digits from the peak in 18 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities.

The impact of the massive government effort to support house prices led to small increases in prices over the Summer, and the question is what happens to prices as these programs end over the next 6 months. I expect further price declines in many cities.

Last 10 Posts