Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Philly Fed State Coincident Indicators Show Improvement

by Bill McBride on 12/22/2009 11:59:00 AM

Here is a little more positive data ...

Philly Fed State Conincident Map Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. Twenty five states are showing declining three month activity. The index increased in 20 states, and was unchanged in 5.

Here is the Philadelphia Fed state coincident index release for November.

In the past month, the indexes increased in 26 states, decreased in 16, and remained unchanged in eight (Colorado, Idaho, Indiana, Louisiana, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Utah) for a one-month diffusion index of 20. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 20 states, decreased in 25, and remained unchanged in five (California, Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island) for a three-month diffusion index of -10.
Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityThe second graph is of the monthly Philly Fed data of the number of states with one month increasing activity. Based on this indicator, most of the U.S. was in recession from about December 2007 through October 2009 - although the graph shows the recession ending in July 2009 (based on other data).

Note: this graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

A majority of states were showing increasing activity in November for the first time since the beginning of the recession.