Friday, October 23, 2009

Philly Fed State Coincident Indicators Show Widespread Weakness in September

by Bill McBride on 10/23/2009 11:00:00 AM

Philly Fed State Conincident Map Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. Forty one states are showing declining three month activity. The index increased in 7 states, and was unchanged in 2.

Here is the Philadelphia Fed state coincident index release for September.

In the past month, the indexes increased in nine states (Idaho, Indiana, Louisiana, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Vermont), decreased in 39, and remained unchanged in two (North Carolina and Nebraska) for a one-month diffusion index of -60. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in seven states (Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Vermont), decreased in 41, and remained unchanged in two (Nebraska and South Carolina) for a three-month diffusion index of -68.
Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityThe second graph is of the monthly Philly Fed data of the number of states with one month increasing activity. Most of the U.S. was has been in recession since December 2007 based on this indicator.

Note: this graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

A large percentage of states still showed declining activity in September.