Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Philly Fed State Coincident Indicators: Still a Widespread Recession in July

by Bill McBride on 8/25/2009 11:30:00 AM

Philly Fed State Conincident Map Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. Forty six states are showing declining three month activity.

This is what a widespread recession looks like based on the Philly Fed states indexes.

On a one month basis, activity decreased in 35 states in June, and was unchanged in 8 states. Here is the Philadelphia Fed state coincident index release for July.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for July 2009. In the past month, the indexes increased in seven states (Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wisconsin), decreased in 35, and remained unchanged in eight (Hawaii, Indiana, Nebraska, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Virginia) for a one-month diffusion index of -56. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in three states (Mississippi, North Dakota, and Vermont), decreased in 46, and remained unchanged in one (South Carolina) for a three-month diffusion index of -86.
Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityThe second graph is of the monthly Philly Fed data of the number of states with one month increasing activity. Most of the U.S. was has been in recession since December 2007 based on this indicator.

Note: this graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

A large percentage of states showed declining activity in July. Still a widespread recession in July by this indicator ...