by Bill McBride on 8/21/2009 08:53:00 AM
Friday, August 21, 2009
Existing home sales for July will be released at 10 AM ET.
From CNBC: Existing Home Sales May Top 5 Million: ING Analysts
Existing home sales may have crossed the 5 million mark in July, as buyers are coming back to the market, analysts from ING bank said in a market research note Friday.But no mention of the first-time home buyer frenzy? As I noted earlier:
"The surge in the number of signed contracts… suggests existing home sales are about to cross the 5-million mark. There is a fair chance sales already crossed that barrier last month," the note said.
"Sales pushing above 5.1 million – the pre-Lehman level – would help to make a convincing case that this is not just a correction, but a real pick-up in activity," ING analysts wrote.
Expect a surge in existing home sales (and some new home sales) over the next few months. Expect all kinds of reports that the bottom has been reached. (Like the ING report via CNBC)
Expect the frenzy to end ...
Here is a repeat of a graph by buyer type in Q2 from the Campbell survey.
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
According to the Campbell survey first-time buyers accounted for 43% of sales in Q2 (investors another 29%).
Source: Summary Report--Real Estate Agents Report on Home Purchases and Mortgages, Campbell Communications, June 2009 (excerpted with permission)
Posted by Bill McBride on 8/21/2009 08:53:00 AM