by Bill McBride on 7/27/2009 10:00:00 AM
Monday, July 27, 2009
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 384 thousand. This is an increase from the revised rate of 345 thousand in May.
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
The first graph shows monthly new home sales (NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted).
Note the Red columns for 2009. This is the 2nd lowest sales for June since the Census Bureau started tracking sales in 1963.
In June 2009, 36 thousand new homes were sold (NSA); the record low was 34 thousand in June 1982; the record high for June was 115 thousand in 2005.
The second graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions for the last 45 years. New Home sales have fallen off a cliff.
Sales of new one-family houses in June 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000 ...And another long term graph - this one for New Home Months of Supply.
This is 11.0 percent (±13.2%)* above the revised May rate of 346,000, but is 21.3 percent (±11.4%) below the June 2008 estimate of 488,000.
There were 8.8 months of supply in June - significantly below the all time record of 12.4 months of supply set in January.
The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 281,000. This represents a supply of 8.8 months at the current sales rate.The final graph shows new home inventory.
Note that new home inventory does not include many condos (especially high rise condos), and areas with significant condo construction will have much higher inventory levels.
Months-of-supply for inventory has peaked, and there is some chance that sales of new homes has bottomed for this cycle - but we won't know for many months. However any recovery in sales will likely be modest because of the huge overhang of existing homes for sale.
I'll have more later ...