Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Case-Shiller House Prices and Stress Test Scenarios

by Bill McBride on 6/30/2009 09:30:00 AM

Please see: Case-Shiller: Prices Fall in April for the seasonally adjusted composite indices.

NOTE: I'm now using the Seasonally Adjusted (SA) composite 10 series.

This graph compares the Case-Shiller Composite 10 SA index with the Stress Test scenarios from the Treasury (stress test data is estimated from quarterly forecasts).

Case-Shiller Stress Test Comparison Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The Stress Test scenarios use the Composite 10 index and start in December. Here are the numbers:

Case-Shiller Composite 10 Index, April: 151.27

Stress Test Baseline Scenario, April: 152.90

Stress Test More Adverse Scenario, April: 146.95

So far prices are tracking between the two stress test scenarios.