Sunday, May 10, 2009

Sunday Night Futures

by Bill McBride on 5/10/2009 11:25:00 PM

Stock Market Crashes Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph is from Doug Short of (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".

The S&P 500 is up 37.4% from the bottom, but still off 40.6% from the peak.

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

Shanghai The second graph is the Shanghai SSE composite index. I used to post this graph with the subtitle "Cliff Diving"!

The Shanghai composite is up again tonight, and this index is now up 54% from the bottom, but still off 55% from the peak.

Both these markets show how the denominator impacts percentages. Imagine a market that peaked at 100 and dropped to 30. Then rallied back to 50. The market would the be up 67% from the bottom: 50 minus 30 = 20, divided by 30, but still off 50% from the peak. That is why it helps to report both numbers!

The S&P 500 is up 37.4% from the bottom, but that just puts it near the level following the early October crash.

The U.S. futures are off tonight:

CBOT mini-sized Dow

Futures from

CME Globex Flash Quotes

And the Asian markets. The Asian markets are mixed.

And a graph of the Asian markets.

Best to all.