Thursday, January 29, 2009

Philly Fed: Activity Declined in Every State in December

by Bill McBride on 1/29/2009 12:04:00 PM

Here is a new record that will never be broken! The Philly Fed index shows - for the first time ever - declining activity in all states in December (see bottom graph).

Here is the Philadelphia Fed state coincident index release for December.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for all 50 states for December 2008. The indexes decreased in all 50 states for the month (a one-month diffusion index of -100). For the past three months, the indexes increased in three states, Louisiana, North Dakota, and Wyoming, and remained unchanged in one state, Alaska.
Philly Fed State Conincident Map Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. Almost all states are showing declining activity over the last three months.

This is what a widespread recession looks like based on the Philly Fed states indexes.

Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityThe second graph is of the monthly Philly Fed data of the number of states with one month increasing activity. For the first time ever, the Philly Fed index showed no states with increasing activity.
The indexes decreased in all 50 states for the month (a one-month diffusion index of -100).
Most of the U.S. was has been in recession since December 2007 based on this indicator - and now ALL states are see declining activity.