Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Credit Crisis Indicators: Worse

by Bill McBride on 10/15/2008 02:05:00 PM

This will be a daily post. Here are a few indicators I'm watching for progress on the credit crisis.

  • The yield on 3 month treasuries: 0.14% (UGLY - Worse today)

  • The TED spread: 4.38 (UGLY - Worse today)

  • Activity in the Treasury's Supplementary Financing Program (SFP). This is the Treasury program to raise cash for the Fed's liquidity initiatives. If this program slows down borrowing, I think that would be a good sign.

    Here is a list of SFP sales. Two more $30 billion auctions announced today. NO PROGRESS.

  • The A2P2 spread is 4.32 for Tuesday. A slight improvement over Friday.

  • Industry contacts. I'm tracking some financing deals there are being held up right now. If these deals complete that would be a good sign (I'll post something when this happens). No improvement yet.

    Update:
    Bob in MA sent me this:
    The two year swap spread from Bloomberg: No progress.

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