Thursday, May 22, 2008

National House Price Indices: OFHEO vs. Case-Shiller Graphs

by Bill McBride on 5/22/2008 01:23:00 PM

Case-Shiller vs. OFHEO House Price Index Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the OFHEO Purchase Only Index (through Q1 2008) vs. the Case-Shiller National Index (through Q4 2007). (Q1 2000 = 100 for both indices).

Note that the Case-Shiller National Index showed a larger price increase during the boom, and is now showing a faster price decline.

Case-Shiller vs. OFHEO House Price Index The second graph shows the year-over-year change in the price indices. The Case-Shiller index showed larger annual percentage increases than OFHEO during the boom, and is now showing larger annual percentage declines.

The Case-Shiller index for Q1 2008 will be released next Tuesday at 9 AM ET, and the index will probably be at about the same level as the OFHEO index on the first graph, and will probably show a year-over-year price decline close to 15%.