by Bill McBride on 8/27/2007 10:00:00 AM
Monday, August 27, 2007
Total existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – slipped 0.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 5.75 million units in July from an upwardly revised pace of 5.76 million in June, and are 9.0 percent below the 6.32 million-unit level in July 2006.Click on graph for larger image.
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $228,900 in July, down 0.6 percent from July 2006 when the median was $230,200, the highest monthly price on record. The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.
The first graph shows the NSA sales per month for the last 3 years.
The pattern of YoY declines in sales is continuing. For New home sales, March is usually the strongest sales month of the year. For existing homes, the Summer months are more critical.
The second graph shows the months of supply. With the months of supply now well over 8 months, we should expect falling prices nationwide.
The 9.6 months of supply is the highest since 1982 - when mortgage rates averaged 16% (see Freddie Mac)!
The third graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to NAR, inventory increased to an all time record 4,592,000 in July.
Total housing inventory rose 5.1 percent at the end of June to 4.59 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.6-month supply at the current sales pace, up from an upwardly revised 9.1-month supply in June.More on existing home sales later today.
Note: For existing homes, the sales data is compiled at the close of escrow. So this report is mostly for homes were the sales agreements were signed in June or even May. This is all pre-turmoil, and even the August existing home report will be mostly pre-turmoil.
Posted by Bill McBride on 8/27/2007 10:00:00 AM