by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2022 08:20:00 PM

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May. This is a composite index of other data.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for May from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.41 million SAAR, down from 5.61 million. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 5.35 million SAAR for May.

by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2022 03:03:00 PM

Housing economist Tom Lawler has been sending me his predictions of what the NAR will report for 12 years.  And he has graciously allowed me to share his predictions with the readers of this blog.

The table below shows the consensus for each month, Lawler's predictions, and the NAR's initially reported level of sales.  Lawler hasn't always been closer than the consensus, but usually when there has been a fairly large spread between Lawler's estimate and the "consensus", Lawler has been closer.

The NAR is scheduled to release Existing Home Sales for May, tomorrow at 10:00 AM, Tuesday, June 21st.

The consensus is for 5.41 million SAAR in May. Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 5.35 million SAAR. 

Over the last 12 years, the consensus average miss was 147 thousand, and Lawler's average miss was 72 thousand.

Existing Home Sales, Forecasts and NAR Report millions, seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR)
Month	Consensus	Lawler	NAR reported1
May-10	6.20	5.83	5.66
Jun-10	5.30	5.30	5.37
Jul-10	4.66	3.95	3.83
Aug-10	4.10	4.10	4.13
Sep-10	4.30	4.50	4.53
Oct-10	4.50	4.46	4.43
Nov-10	4.85	4.61	4.68
Dec-10	4.90	5.13	5.28
Jan-11	5.20	5.17	5.36
Feb-11	5.15	5.00	4.88
Mar-11	5.00	5.08	5.10
Apr-11	5.20	5.15	5.05
May-11	4.75	4.80	4.81
Jun-11	4.90	4.71	4.77
Jul-11	4.92	4.69	4.67
Aug-11	4.75	4.92	5.03
Sep-11	4.93	4.83	4.91
Oct-11	4.80	4.86	4.97
Nov-11	5.08	4.40	4.42
Dec-11	4.60	4.64	4.61
Jan-12	4.69	4.66	4.57
Feb-12	4.61	4.63	4.59
Mar-12	4.62	4.59	4.48
Apr-12	4.66	4.53	4.62
May-12	4.57	4.66	4.55
Jun-12	4.65	4.56	4.37
Jul-12	4.50	4.47	4.47
Aug-12	4.55	4.87	4.82
Sep-12	4.75	4.70	4.75
Oct-12	4.74	4.84	4.79
Nov-12	4.90	5.10	5.04
Dec-12	5.10	4.97	4.94
Jan-13	4.90	4.94	4.92
Feb-13	5.01	4.87	4.98
Mar-13	5.03	4.89	4.92
Apr-13	4.92	5.03	4.97
May-13	5.00	5.20	5.18
Jun-13	5.27	4.99	5.08
Jul-13	5.13	5.33	5.39
Aug-13	5.25	5.35	5.48
Sep-13	5.30	5.26	5.29
Oct-13	5.13	5.08	5.12
Nov-13	5.02	4.98	4.90
Dec-13	4.90	4.96	4.87
Jan-14	4.70	4.67	4.62
Feb-14	4.64	4.60	4.60
Mar-14	4.56	4.64	4.59
Apr-14	4.67	4.70	4.65
May-14	4.75	4.81	4.89
Jun-14	4.99	4.96	5.04
Jul-14	5.00	5.09	5.15
Aug-14	5.18	5.12	5.05
Sep-14	5.09	5.14	5.17
Oct-14	5.15	5.28	5.26
Nov-14	5.20	4.90	4.93
Dec-14	5.05	5.15	5.04
Jan-15	5.00	4.90	4.82
Feb-15	4.94	4.87	4.88
Mar-15	5.04	5.18	5.19
Apr-15	5.22	5.20	5.04
May-15	5.25	5.29	5.35
Jun-15	5.40	5.45	5.49
Jul-15	5.41	5.64	5.59
Aug-15	5.50	5.54	5.31
Sep-15	5.35	5.56	5.55
Oct-15	5.41	5.33	5.36
Nov-15	5.32	4.97	4.76
Dec-15	5.19	5.36	5.46
Jan-16	5.32	5.36	5.47
Feb-16	5.30	5.20	5.08
Mar-16	5.27	5.27	5.33
Apr-16	5.40	5.44	5.45
May-16	5.64	5.55	5.53
Jun-16	5.48	5.62	5.57
Jul-16	5.52	5.41	5.39
Aug-16	5.44	5.49	5.33
Sep-16	5.35	5.55	5.47
Oct-16	5.44	5.47	5.60
Nov-16	5.54	5.60	5.61
Dec-16	5.54	5.55	5.49
Jan-17	5.55	5.60	5.69
Feb-17	5.55	5.41	5.48
Mar-17	5.61	5.74	5.71
Apr-17	5.67	5.56	5.57
May-17	5.55	5.65	5.62
Jun-17	5.58	5.59	5.52
Jul-17	5.57	5.38	5.44
Aug-17	5.48	5.39	5.35
Sep-17	5.30	5.38	5.39
Oct-17	5.30	5.60	5.48
Nov-17	5.52	5.77	5.81
Dec-17	5.75	5.66	5.57
Jan-18	5.65	5.48	5.38
Feb-18	5.42	5.44	5.54
Mar-18	5.28	5.51	5.60
Apr-18	5.60	5.48	5.46
May-18	5.56	5.47	5.43
Jun-18	5.45	5.35	5.38
Jul-18	5.43	5.40	5.34
Aug-18	5.36	5.36	5.34
Sep-18	5.30	5.20	5.15
Oct-18	5.20	5.31	5.22
Nov-18	5.19	5.23	5.32
Dec-18	5.24	4.97	4.99
Jan-19	5.05	4.92	4.94
Feb-19	5.08	5.46	5.51
Mar-19	5.30	5.40	5.21
Apr-19	5.36	5.31	5.19
May-19	5.29	5.40	5.34
Jun-19	5.34	5.25	5.27
Jul-19	5.39	5.40	5.42
Aug-19	5.38	5.42	5.49
Sep-19	5.45	5.36	5.38
Oct-19	5.49	5.36	5.46
Nov-19	5.45	5.43	5.35
Dec-19	5.43	5.40	5.54
Jan-20	5.45	5.42	5.46
Feb-20	5.50	5.58	5.77
Mar-20	5.30	5.25	5.27
Apr-20	4.30	4.17	4.33
May-20	4.38	3.80	3.91
Jun-20	4.86	4.65	4.72
Jul-20	5.39	5.85	5.86
Aug-20	6.00	5.92	6.00
Sep-20	6.25	6.38	6.54
Oct-20	6.45	6.63	6.85
Nov-20	6.70	6.50	6.69
Dec-20	6.55	6.62	6.76
Jan-21	6.60	6.48	6.69
Feb-21	6.51	6.29	6.22
Mar-21	6.17	6.02	6.01
Apr-21	6.09	5.96	5.85
May-21	5.74	5.78	5.80
Jun-21	5.90	5.79	5.86
Jul-21	5.84	5.86	5.99
Aug-21	5.88	5.90	5.88
Sep-21	6.06	6.20	6.29
Oct-21	6.20	6.34	6.34
Nov-21	6.20	6.45	6.46
Dec-21	6.45	6.33	6.18
Jan-22	6.12	6.36	6.50
Feb-22	6.16	5.97	6.02
Mar-22	5.80	5.74	5.77
Apr-22	5.62	5.57	5.61
May-22	5.41	5.35	NA
1NAR initially reported before revisions.

by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2022 10:51:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Completions will Increase Sharply in 2022

A brief excerpt:

Even as housing starts slow, there will be a sharp increase in new supply in 2022 including both single family homes and apartments.

This graph shows total housing completions and placements since 1968 with an estimate for 2022. Note that the net additional to the housing stock is less because of demolitions and destruction of older housing units.

My current estimate is total completions (single family, multi-family, manufactured homes) will increase about 17% in 2022 to almost 1.7 million. If correct, this would be the most completions since 2006.
...

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2022 09:42:00 AM

Altos reports inventory is up 18.5% year-over-year.

Inventory usually declines in the winter, and then increases in the spring. Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 74% since then.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of June 17th, inventory was at 419 thousand (7-day average), compared to 396 thousand the prior week. Inventory was up 5.6% from the previous week.  Inventory is increasing much faster than normal for this time of year (both in percentage terms and in total inventory added).

Note: Next week, inventory will likely exceed the peak in 2021.

Inventory is still historically low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 18.5% from 353 thousand, however compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is down 39.3% from 690 thousand.  Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 56.5% from 963 thousand.

Here are the inventory milestones I’m watching for with the Altos data:

1. The seasonal bottom (happened on March 4th for Altos) ✅

2. Inventory up year-over-year (happened on May 13th for Altos) ✅

3. Inventory up compared to two years ago (currently down 39.3% according to Altos)

4. Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 56.5%).

Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021, 2020 (milestone 3 above) and 2019 (milestone 4).

The blue line is the year-over-year data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and dashed purple is compared to 2019.

Two years ago (in 2020) inventory was declining all year, so the two-year comparison will get easier all year.  

My current guess is inventory will be up in Q4 compared to the same week in 2020.

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2022 08:06:00 AM

These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.    It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides.  Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. Apple has discontinued "Apple mobility", and restaurant traffic is mostly back to normal.

----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -----
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.

This data is as of June 19th.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red).

The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average.

The 7-day average is down 12.1% from the same day in 2019 (87.9% of 2019).  (Dashed line) 

Air travel has been moving sideways over the last several months, off about 10% from 2019.

----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -----
This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue).  

Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.  

The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through June 16th.

Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.  

Movie ticket sales were at $297 million last week, up about 47% from the median for the week due to Jurassic Park.

----- Hotel Occupancy: STR -----
This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

This data is through June 11th. The occupancy rate was down 4.1% compared to the same week in 2019.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is slightly above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

----- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -----
This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019.

Blue is for 2020.  Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

As of June 10th, gasoline supplied was down 7.9% compared to the same week in 2019.

Recently gasoline supplied has been running somewhat below 2019 levels.

----- New York City Subway Usage -----
Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).

This graph is from Todd W Schneider. 

This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average).

Manhattan is at about 39% of normal.

This data is through Friday, June 17th.

He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings".

by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2022 10:12:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

A brief excerpt:

This is the third look at local markets in May. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I update these tables throughout each month as additional data is released.

We are seeing a significant change in inventory, and maybe a pickup in new listings. So far, most of the increase in inventory has been due to softer demand - likely because of higher mortgage rates - but we need to keep an eye on new listings too.

On a national basis, we saw record low inventory levels over the Winter. Last year, inventory didn’t bottom seasonally until early April. This year inventory bottomed in February (normal seasonal timing), and recent data from Altos Research and Realtor.com, indicate active inventory was up year-over-year in May. I expect the local market reports will show inventory up year-over-year in May too.
...
And a table of May sales. Sales in these areas were down 5.8% YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). There was one extra business day in May 2022 compared to May 2021, so the Seasonally Adjusted headline number will likely show a larger decline than 5.8%.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release May existing home sales on Tuesday, June 21, 2022, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 5.41 million SAAR.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report “seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million in May, down 4.6% from April’s preliminary pace and down 9.6% from last May’s seasonally adjusted pace.”

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2022 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

• Slowdown in Showings, Sharp Decline in California Pending Sales, Inventory Surges

• Fed Chair Powell: "Homebuyers need a bit of a reset"

• Comparing the Current Housing Market to the 1978 to 1982 period

• May Housing Starts: All-Time Record Housing Units Under Construction

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May


This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

Most content is available for free (and no Ads), but please subscribe!

by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2022 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are May New and Existing Home Sales.

Fed Chair Powell provides the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.

----- Monday, June 20th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day

----- Tuesday, June 21st -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May. This is a composite index of other data.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for May from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.41 million SAAR, down from 5.61 million.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 5.35 million SAAR for May.

----- Wednesday, June 22nd -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

9:30 AM: Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for May (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, June 23rd -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 225 thousand down from 229 thousand last week.

10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives

4:30 PM: The Fed will release the annual Bank Stress Tests results.

----- Friday, June 24th -----
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for May from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

The consensus is for 580 thousand SAAR, down from 591 thousand in April.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for June). The consensus is for a reading of 50.2.

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2022 09:01:00 PM

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	66.8%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	221.9	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3	100,733	109,098	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	24,201	23,686	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	266	326	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

New cases have quadrupled from the recent low.  

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2022 04:16:00 PM

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released yesterday from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending June 11, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory.

• Active inventory continued to grow, rising 17% above one year ago. Inventory was roughly even with last year’s levels at the beginning of May and the gains have mounted each week. Still, our May Housing Trends Report showed that the active listings count remained nearly 50 percent below its level at the beginning of the pandemic. In other words, we’re starting to add more options, but the market needs even more before home shoppers have a selection that’s roughly equivalent to the pre-pandemic housing market.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Note the rapid increase in the YoY change, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to up 17% YoY now. It will be important to watch if that trend continues.