by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2021 03:29:00 PM

The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are also not made public.

CAMELS is the FDIC rating system, and stands for Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk. The scale is from 1 to 5, with 1 being the strongest.

As a substitute for the CAMELS ratings, surferdude808 is using publicly announced formal enforcement actions, and also media reports and company announcements that suggest to us an enforcement action is likely, to compile a list of possible problem banks in the public interest.

DISCLAIMER: This is an unofficial list, the information is from public sources only, and while deemed to be reliable is not guaranteed. No warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein and same is subject to errors and omissions. This is not intended as investment advice. Please contact CR with any errors.

Here are the quarterly changes and a few comments from surferdude808:

Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List through September 27, 2021. Since the last update at the end of June 2021, the list decreased by six to 59 institutions after two additions and eight removals. Assets increased by $3.1 billion to $54.9 billion, with the change entirely from nearly a $5.0 billion increase from updated asset figures through June 30, 2021. A year ago, the list held 64 institutions with assets of $52.4 billion. Additions this month included The Anna-Jonesboro National Bank, Anna, IL ($268 million) and First Savanna Savings Bank, Savanna, IL ($11 million). Removals because of action termination included Patriot Bank, National Association, Stamford, CT ($963 million); CFSBank, Charleroi, PA ($545 million); Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust, Chicago, IL ($245 million); South LaFourche Bank & Trust Company, Larose, LA ($145 million); AllNations Bank, Calumet, OK ($48 million); and Sainte Marie State Bank, Sainte Marie, IL ($16 million). Removals through unassisted merger included Jackson County Bank, Black River Falls, WI ($205 million) and Towanda State Bank, Towanda, KS ($11 million). On September 8, 2021, the FDIC released second quarter results and provided an update on the Official Problem Bank List. In that release, the FDIC said there were 51 institutions with assets of $46 billion on the official list, down from the 54 institutions with assets of $55 billion in the first quarter of 2021.

With the conclusion of the second quarter, we bring an updated transition matrix to detail how banks are transitioning off the Unofficial Problem Bank List. Since we first published the Unofficial Problem Bank List on August 7, 2009 with 389 institutions, 1,779 institutions have appeared on a weekly or monthly list since then. Only 3.3 percent of the banks that have appeared on a list remain today as 1,720 institutions have transitioned through the list. Departure methods include 1,014 action terminations, 411 failures, 276 mergers, and 19 voluntary liquidations. Of the 389 institutions on the first published list, only 3 or less than 1.0 percent, still have a troubled designation more than ten years later. The 411 failures represent 23.1 percent of the 1,779 institutions that have made an appearance on the list. This failure rate is well above the 10-12 percent rate frequently cited in media reports on the failure rate of banks on the FDIC's official list.

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2021 02:10:00 PM

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: August 2021 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics

With the Delta variant of the COVID virus spiking during the month, August visitation receded from the pandemic‐era peak in July, coming in at just under 3.0M visitors, down ‐ 9.2% MoM and down ‐16.2% from August 2019.

Hotel occupancy reached 72.8% for the month (down 6.6 pts MoM, down ‐14.9 pts vs. August 2019), as Weekend occupancy remained fairly strong at 87.1% (down ‐1.0 pts MoM) while Midweek occupancy dipped to 67.8% (down ‐6.8 pts MoM).

Although down from July, August ADR was the second highest in the pandemic era, exceeding $140, down ‐7.8% MoM but up 16.0% vs. August 2019. RevPAR came in at $102, ‐15.4% MoM and down ‐3.7% vs. August 2019.

Click on graph for larger image.

Thist graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (blue), 2020 (orange) and 2021 (red).

Visitor traffic was down 16.2% compared to the same month in 2019.

There had been no convention traffic since March 2020, but there have been a few conventions since June 2021 (data not available yet).

I'll add a graph of convention traffic once convention data is available.

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2021 10:47:00 AM

Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic, so CoStar is comparing to 2019.

From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Occupancy Stays Flat Week Over Week

U.S. hotel occupancy remained relatively flat week over week, while average daily rate rose, according to STR‘s latest data through September 25.

September 19-25, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):

• Occupancy: 63.2% (-11.0%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $133.69 (-2.0%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $84.54 (-12.8%)

A week after eclipsing 1 million for the first time since the earliest days of the pandemic, group demand rose again to almost 1.3 million for the week. At the same time, group ADR moved past $200 for the first time since February 2020.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The Summer months had decent occupancy with solid leisure travel, and occupancy was only off about 7% in July and August compared to 2019.

But it is uncertain what will happen over the next couple of months with business travel.  Usually weekly occupancy increases to around 70% in the weeks following Labor Day due to renewed business travel.

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2021 08:45:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending September 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 362,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 351,000. The 4-week moving average was 340,000, an increase of 4,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 335,750.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 340,000.

The previous week was unrevised.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,802,000 (SA) from 2,820,000 (SA) the previous week.

Note (released with a 2 week delay): There were an additional 1,059,248 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 4,896,125 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This was a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And threre were an additional 991,813 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 3,644,555.

Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2021 08:34:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised), 2nd Quarter 2021

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.7 percent in the second quarter of 2021, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 6.3 percent.

The "third" estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 6.6 percent. Upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, and private inventory investment were partly offset by an upward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP
emphasis added

Here is a Comparison of Third and Second Estimates. PCE growth was revised up from 11.9% to 12.0%. Residential investment was revised down from -11.5% to -11.7%. This was at the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2021 09:04:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 335 thousand initial claims, down from 351 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2021 (Third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 6.7% annualized in Q2, revised up from the second estimate of 6.6%.

• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 65.0, down from 66.8 in August.

by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2021 06:31:00 PM

The CDC is the source for all data.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 391,992,662, as of a week ago 387,493,716, or 0.75 million doses per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	55.9%	54.9%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	185.5	182.4	≥2321
New Cases per Day3	110,232	131,736	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	74,923	83,786	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	1,487	1,508	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  

KUDOS to the residents of the 13 states and D.C. that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 69.4%, Connecticut, Maine, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland, New York, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Washington, Oregon, Virginia, and District of Columbia at 60.1%.

The following 21 states have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Colorado at 59.3%, California, Minnesota, Hawaii, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Florida, Wisconsin, Texas, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Kentucky, South Dakota, Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Alaska, Utah and Ohio at 50.2%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are North Carolina 49.7%, Montana at 48.4%, and Indiana at 48.3% .

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2021 12:19:00 PM

Today, in the Newsletter: Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio and Price-to-Median Income in July

Excerpt:

This graph uses the year end Case-Shiller house price index - and the nominal median household income through 2020 (from the Census Bureau). 2021 median income is estimated at a 5% annual gain.

By all of the above measures, house prices appear elevated.

by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2021 10:03:00 AM

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Recover 8.1% in August

Pending home sales rebounded in August, recording significant gains after two prior months of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major U.S. regions mounted month-over-month growth in contract activity. However, those same territories reported decreases in transactions year-over-year, with the Northeast being hit hardest, enduring a double-digit drop.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, increased 8.1% to 119.5 in August. Year-over-year, signings dipped 8.3%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.
...
Month-over-month, the Northeast PHSI rose 4.6% to 96.2 in August, a 15.8% drop from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index climbed 10.4% to 115.4 last month, down 5.9% from August 2020.

Pending home sales transactions in the South increased 8.6% to an index of 141.8 in August, down 6.3% from August 2020. The index in the West grew 7.2% in August to 107.0, however still down 9.2% from a year prior.
emphasis added

This was well above expectations of a 1.3% increase for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in September and October.

by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2021 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 24, 2021.

... The Refinance Index decreased 1 percent from the previous week and was 0.4 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Increased optimism about the strength of the economy pushed Treasury yields higher following last week’s FOMC meeting. Mortgage rates in response rose across all loan types, with the benchmark 30- year fixed rate reaching its highest level since early July 2021,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The increase in rates – mostly later in the week – led to a decrease in both purchase and refinance applications, with a prominent decline in government loan applications. Conventional loan applications increased, driven by a rise in conventional refinances. This was perhaps a sign that some borrowers reacted to higher rates and decided to refinance.”

Added Kan, “With home-price appreciation continuing to run hot, increasing more than 19 percent annually in July, applications for larger loan amounts continue to outpace lower-balance loans. The average loan size for a purchase application reached $410,000, its highest level since May 2021.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.10 percent from 3.03 percent, with points increasing to 0.34 from 0.30 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With low rates, the index remains elevated.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 12% year-over-year unadjusted.

Note: The year ago comparisons for the unadjusted purchase index are now difficult since purchase activity picked up in late May 2020.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).