by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2021 12:55:00 PM

In the Newsletter: 5 More Local Housing Markets in August

This brings the total to 25 local markets for August. This includes active inventory, new listings and sales added for Alabama, Austin, Maryland, Phoenix, Rhode Island

So far active inventory is down 1.1% compared to July for these markets

by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2021 10:46:00 AM

GDP forecasts had been downgraded sharply for Q3 due to COVID, but now seem to have stabilized. 

Here is a table of some of the forecasts over the last two months.

	Merrill	Goldman	GDPNow
7/30/21	7.0%	9.0%	6.1%
8/20/21	4.5%	5.5%	6.1%
9/10/21	4.5%	3.5%	3.7%
9/17/21	4.5%	4.5%	3.6%

From BofA Merrill Lynch:

We continue to track 4.5% qoq saar for 3Q GDP following the retail sales data as our forecast was far above consensus. [Sept 17 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

Following the stronger-than-expected retail sales report, we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 1pp at +4.5% (qoq ar). We are also lowering our 2021Q4 and 2022Q2 GDP forecasts by 0.5pp to reflect a smaller rebound from 2021Q3. [Sept 16 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 3.6 percent on September 16, down from 3.7 percent on September 10 after rounding. [Sept 16 estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2021 08:34:00 AM

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.

This data is as of September 14th.

From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Forbearances Below 1.6M For First Time Since Start of Pandemic

The number of active forbearance plans fell by 22K (-1.4%) this week, bringing the total number of U.S. homeowners in COVID-19 forbearance below 1.6M for the first time since the start of the pandemic.

Matching 15,000 declines in plans among both GSE and FHA/VA loans were partially offset by an 8,000 rise in PLS/portfolio plans. Overall, forbearances are now down 156K (-8.9%) from the same time last month.

As of September 14, nearly 1.6 million mortgage holders remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans, representing 3% of all active mortgages, including 1.7% of GSE, 5.2% of FHA/VA and 3.8% of portfolio held and privately securitized loans.

Both new forbearance plans and plan restarts rose this week, with new plan starts trending higher since mid-August.

The rise in new plan starts is almost solely limited to FHA/VA loans, coinciding with the deadline for entry into forbearance for such loans expiring at the end of September. That said, unemployment benefits lapsed over the Labor Day weekend and COVID caseloads continue to rise, so it’s difficult to pinpoint the exact cause.

With two weeks left in the month, we have already seen 218,000 plan exits over just the first half of September. Meanwhile, plan extensions are at their lowest since the onset of the pandemic, with only 45,000 plans extended this week.

With more than 462,000 plans scheduled for review for extension/removal in September, exit volumes could be poised to rise sharply at the start of October. As many as 330,000 are set to reach their final plan expirations based on current allowable forbearance term lengths.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2021 04:59:00 PM

The CDC is the source for all data.

The 7-day average deaths is the highest since March 1st.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 383,038,403, as of a week ago 377,622,065. Average doses last week: 0.90 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	54.2%	53.4%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	180.1	177.4	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	146,182	137,783	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	89,132	93,255	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	1,233	1,447	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  

This is all from the CDC - state data may differ!

KUDOS to the residents of the 11 states that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 68.8%, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland. New Jersey, Washington, New York, New Mexico, New Hampshire at 60.8%.

The following 16 states and D.C. have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Oregon at 59.5%, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, California, Hawaii, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, South Dakota, Kentucky and Arizona at 50.0%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Kansas at 49.9%, Nevada at 49.5%, Texas at 49.5%,  Ohio at 49.3%, Utah at 49.1% and Alaska at 48.6%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2021 01:32:00 PM

In the Newsletter: Household Formation Drives Housing Demand

If all the missing households from 2020 were formed in 2021, we’d expect about 2.3 million additional households formed this year!

by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2021 11:12:00 AM

Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.

The comparison to 2019 was difficult this week due to the timing of Labor Day.  Last week the occupancy rate was unchanged year-over-year.  If we average the last two weeks, occupancy is down about 7% compared to the same two weeks in 2019.

From CoStar: STR: Labor Day, Rosh Hashanah Contribute to US Hotel Performance Declines

U.S. hotel performance fell slightly from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through September 11.

September 5-11, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):

• Occupancy: 60.0% (-13.6%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $130.82 (-1.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $78.46 (-14.8%)

Despite the week-over-week dip, performance levels were solid on an absolute basis considering it was the week of Labor Day as well as Rosh Hashanah from Monday through Wednesday. Neither of those holidays were a factor in the corresponding week two years ago, thus creating steeper declines in comparison with 2019.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

With solid leisure travel, the Summer months had decent occupancy - but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel - usually weekly occupancy increases to around 70% in the weeks following Labor Day due to renewed business travel.

by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2021 08:46:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales were increased 0.7% from July to August (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 15.1 percent from August 2020.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $618.7 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent from the previous month, and 15.1 percent above August 2020 ... The June 2021 to July 2021 percent change was revised from down 1.1 percent to down 1.8 percent.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.8% in August.

The stimulus checks boosted retail sales significantly in March and April.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 13.4% on a YoY basis.

Sales in August were above expectations, however sales in June and July were revised down, combined.

by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2021 08:36:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending September 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 332,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 310,000 to 312,000. The 4-week moving average was 335,750, a decrease of 4,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 339,500 to 340,000.
emphasis added

This does not include the 28,456 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 94,638 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 335,750.

The previous week was revised up.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,656,747 (SA) from 2,662,844 (SA) the previous week.

Note (released with a 2 week delay): There were an additional 5,487,233 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that increased from 5,090,524 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And were an additional 3,805,795 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) up from 3,805,008.

Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2021 09:00:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  There were 310 thousand initial claims last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for August will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.7% decrease in retail sales.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of 20.0, up from 19.4.

by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2021 05:22:00 PM

The CDC is the source for all data.

The 7-day average deaths is the highest since March 2nd.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 382,294,795, as of a week ago 376,955,132. Average doses last week: 0.76 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	54.1%	53.3%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	179.7	177.1	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	145,675	141,275	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	90,593	93,243	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	1,358	1,125	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  

This is all from the CDC - state data may differ!

KUDOS to the residents of the 11 states that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 68.7%, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland. New Jersey, Washington, New York, New Mexico, New Hampshire at 60.8%.

The following 15 states and D.C. have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Oregon at 59.4%, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, California, Hawaii, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, South Dakota, and Kentucky at 50.3%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Arizona at 49.9%, Kansas at 49.8%, Ohio at 49.4%, Nevada at 49.4%, Texas at 49.4%, Utah at 49.0% and Alaska at 48.5%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.