by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2021 08:39:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending April 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 553,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 19,000 from 547,000 to 566,000. The 4-week moving average was 611,750, a decrease of 44,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 4,750 from 651,000 to 655,750.
emphasis added

This does not include the 121,749 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 133,358 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 651,000.

The previous week was revised up.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 3,813,109 (SA) from 3,886,198 (SA) the previous week.

Note: There are an additional 6,974,068 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 7,309,604 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And an additional 5,192,711 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 5,605,935.

Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2021 08:33:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2021, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2020, real GDP increased 4.3 percent. ...

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
emphasis added

The advance Q1 GDP report, with 6.4% annualized growth, was slightly below expectations.

I'll have more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 4/28/2021 09:00:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for a decrease to 525 thousand from 547 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2021 (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 6.5% annualized in Q1, up from 4.3% in Q4.

• At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for March. The consensus is for a 6.0% increase in the index.

by Calculated Risk on 4/28/2021 03:46:00 PM

Note: I'm looking forward to not posting this daily! I've been posting this data daily for over a year, and I'll stop once all three of these criteria are met:
1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and
2) new cases are under 5,000 per day, and
3) hospitalizations are below 3,000.

According to the CDC, 234.6 million doses have been administered. 37.8% of the population over 18 is fully vaccinated, and 54.5% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose (140.8 million people over 18 have had at least one dose).

And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. 

Almost 18,000 US deaths were reported so far in April due to COVID.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

Note: The ups and downs during the Winter surge were related to reporting delays due to the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.

This data is from the CDC.

The 7-day average is 53,934, down from 55,080 yesterday, and down from the recent peak of 69,878 on April 13, 2021. This is the lowest since March 21st, but well above the post-summer surge low of 34,668.

The second graph shows the number of people hospitalized.

This data is also from the CDC.

The CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, the area in grey will probably increase.

The current 7-day average is 37,606, up from 37,092 reported yesterday, and well above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.

by Calculated Risk on 4/28/2021 02:05:00 PM

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here starting at 2:30 PM ET.

FOMC Statement:

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Amid progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have strengthened. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement. Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus, including progress on vaccinations. The ongoing public health crisis continues to weigh on the economy, and risks to the economic outlook remain.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In addition, the Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 4/28/2021 09:30:00 AM

Watching existing home "for sale" inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing.

And the decrease in inventory eventually helped me correctly call the bottom for house prices in early 2012, see: The Housing Bottom is Here.

And in 2015, it appeared the inventory build in several markets was ending, and that boosted price increases.  

In 2020, with the pandemic, inventory dropped to record lows, and prices really increased (record low mortgage rates and demographics were factors too).

I don't have a crystal ball, but watching inventory helps understand the housing market.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph below shows existing home months-of-supply (from the NAR) vs. the seasonally adjusted month-to-month price change in the Case-Shiller National Index (both since January 1999 through February 2021).

There is a clear relationship, and this is no surprise (but interesting to graph).  If months-of-supply is high, prices decline. If months-of-supply is low, prices rise.

In February, months-of-supply was at 2.0 months, and the Case-Shiller National Index increased 1.1% month-over-month.  The arrow points to the February dot.

In the existing home sales report released last week, the NAR reported months-of-supply at 2.1 months in March. There is a seasonal pattern to inventory, but this is just above the record low of 1.9 months for December 2020 and January 2021 - and prices are increasing sharply.

by Calculated Risk on 4/28/2021 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 2.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 23, 2021.

... The Refinance Index decreased 1 percent from the previous week and was 18 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 34 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage applications decreased last week, even as mortgage rates dropped for the third week in a row. The 30-year fixed rate was down 3 basis points to 3.17 percent, which is still 32 basis points higher than the low reported in December 2020. Even with a few weeks of lower rates, most borrowers have likely already refinanced, which is why activity has decreased in seven of the last eight weeks,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The purchase market’s recent slide comes despite a strengthening economy and labor market. Activity is still above year-ago levels, but accelerating home-price growth and low inventory has led to a decline in purchase applications in four of the last five weeks.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) decreased to 3.17 percent from 3.20 percent, with points decreasing to 0.30 from 0.36 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With low rates, the index remains elevated, but below recent levels since mortgage rates have moved up from the record lows.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 34% year-over-year unadjusted.

Note: Until the 2nd half of May, the MBA index will be up sharply year-over-year since purchase activity collapsed in late March 2020 in the early weeks of the pandemic.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

by Calculated Risk on 4/27/2021 09:00:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: Mortgage Rates Continue Edging Slightly Higher From Recent Lows

Mortgage rates have fallen almost every single day in April. By the end of last week, that meant the average lender was offering the lowest conventional 30yr fixed rates in more than a month. The first two days of the current week have taken rates in the other direction, albeit at a very modest pace.
...
To be fair, sub-3% rates are currently available--especially for purchases--but they're the exception. The average lender is closer to 3.125% on refi transactions, and 3.25% for cash-out refis. Well-qualified borrowers who are willing to pay points (aka, higher closing costs in exchange for a lower rate) can easily get under 3%. [30 Year Fixed Average 3.14%]

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected at this meeting.

• At 2:30 PM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

by Calculated Risk on 4/27/2021 05:00:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for February were released today. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: February 2021 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Red Hot

Already rising at a blistering pace, home price appreciation pressed higher in February as competition for housing remained red hot.
...
As more signs emerge that the economy’s recovery is gathering steam, a wave of eager buyers – many of them seeking their first home purchase – remain determined to find their next home. But with relatively few for-sale homes on the market, bidding wars have become increasingly common, pushing sale prices higher and leading homes to sell at a record pace. In the near-term, it appears unlikely that these upward price pressures will relent meaningfully, particularly as recent retreats in mortgage rates offer many home shoppers increased buying power. However, after pausing in February, home listing activity has shown a meaningful improvement in recent weeks and some recent signs suggest that the historically tight inventory pressures may finally be starting to ease. Should those signs materialize, the meteoric rise in home prices may finally have a reason to come back down to earth. For now, red hot home price appreciation shows few signs of cooling.

Monthly growth in March as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to slow slightly from February in both of the smaller 10- and 20-city composite indices, and accelerate slightly in the national index. Annual growth is expected to accelerate across the board. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the March S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, May 25.
emphasis added

The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 12.8% in March, up from 12.0% in February.

The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be up 12.7% YoY in March from 11.9% in February, and for the 10-City index to increase to be up 12.3% YoY compared to 11.7% YoY in February.

by Calculated Risk on 4/27/2021 04:30:00 PM

Note: I'm looking forward to not posting this daily! I've been posting this data daily for over a year, and I'll stop once all three of these criteria are met:
1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine,
2) new cases are under 5,000 per day, and
3) hospitalizations are below 3,000.

According to the CDC, 232.4 million doses have been administered. 37.3% of the population over 18 is fully vaccinated, and 54.2% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose (139.9 million people over 18 have had at least one dose).

And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. 

Almost 17,500 US deaths were reported so far in April due to COVID.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

Note: The ups and downs during the Winter surge were related to reporting delays due to the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.

This data is from the CDC.

The 7-day average is 55,186, down from 56,013 yesterday, and down from the recent peak of 69,878 on April 13, 2021. This is also below the summer surge peak of 67,337 on July 23, 2020.

The second graph shows the number of people hospitalized.

This data is also from the CDC.

The CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, the area in grey will probably increase.

The current 7-day average is 37,092, up from 36,654 reported yesterday, and well above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.