RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 1/25/2021 07:29:00 PM
Monday, January 25, 2021
January 25 COVID-19 Test Results and Vaccinations
Note: Bloomberg has great data on vaccinations.
It is possible the 7-day average cases has peaked. Stay safe! I'm looking forward to not posting this data in a few months.
"Vaccinations in the U.S. began Dec. 14 with health-care workers, and so far 23.5 million shots have been given, according to a state-by-state tally by Bloomberg and data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In the last week, an average of 1.25 million doses per day were administered."Also check out the graphs at COVID-19 Vaccine Projections The site has several interactive graphs related to US COVID vaccinations including a breakdown of how many have had one shot, and how many have had both shots.
It is possible the 7-day average cases has peaked. Stay safe! I'm looking forward to not posting this data in a few months.
The US is now averaging close to 2 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace.
There were 1,696,188 test results reported over the last 24 hours.
There were 133,067 positive tests.
Over 75,000 US deaths have been reported so far in January. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.
Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.
The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 7.8% (red line is 7 day average). The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending).
And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site)
The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.It is possible cases and hospitalizations have peaked, but are declining from a very high level.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases Slightly to 5.38%"
by Calculated Risk on 1/25/2021 04:00:00 PM
Note: This is as of January 17th.
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases Slightly to 5.38%
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased slightly from 5.37% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 5.38% as of January 17, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.7 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.
...
The small increase in the share of loans in forbearance was led by a gain in the portfolio/PLS loan segment. The good news is that the forbearance numbers for GSE loans continues to decline more consistently, as these borrowers typically have stronger credit and more stable employment,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The rate of exits from forbearance slowed in the prior week, while the rate of new forbearance requests remained steady at a low level.”
Fratantoni added, “The latest housing market data show strong momentum entering 2021, with both the pace of home sales and new construction booming. We expect that this strong market could benefit homeowners who need to sell their home, as record-low inventory is causing for-sale homes to go under contract quickly and is pushing up home prices.”
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has generally been trending down.
The MBA notes: "Weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) remained flat relative to the previous two weeks at 0.07 percent."
Record Low Mortgage Rates; Loans Taking 2 Months to Close
by Calculated Risk on 1/25/2021 02:02:00 PM
From Jann Swanson at MortgageNewsDaily: Loans Still Taking 2 Months to Close as Refi Demand Stays Strong
The interest rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages originated in December reached an all-time low in ICE Mortgage Technology's (formerly Ellie Mae's) records, an average of 2.93 percent and a 4-basis point decline from the November rate. ... The time to close all loans increased to 58 days from 55 days in November with purchase loans, at 56 days compared to 49 days, accounting for all the increase. The refinance timeline remained at 59 days. [Today's Most Prevalent Rates For Top Tier Scenarios 30YR FIXED - 2.78%]
Click on graph for larger image.This graph from Mortgage News Daily shows mortgage rates since January 2011.
Mortgage rates are essentially at record lows.
This graph is interactive, and you could view mortgage rates back to the mid-1980s - click here for interactive graph.
Housing Inventory Weekly Update: At Record Lows
by Calculated Risk on 1/25/2021 11:09:00 AM
One of the key questions for 2021 is: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2021?
Tracking inventory will be very important this year, and I'll be using some weekly sources.
Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of January 22nd, inventory is at 380 thousand (7 day average), compared to 736 thousand the same week a year ago. That is a decline of 48%.
A week ago, inventory was at 389 thousand, and seasonally inventory should bottom soon.
Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Moderates" in January
by Calculated Risk on 1/25/2021 10:42:00 AM
From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Expansion Moderates
Texas factory activity continued to expand in January, albeit at a markedly slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell from 26.8 to 4.6, indicating a sharp deceleration in output growth.
Other measures of manufacturing activity also point to more muted growth this month. The new orders index dropped 13 points to 6.3, and the growth rate of orders index fell from 15.9 to 5.9. The capacity utilization index declined 10 points to 9.2, and the shipments index fell from 23.4 to 13.5.
Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to improve in January. The general business activity index remained positive but edged down from 10.5 to 7.0. The company outlook index also stayed in positive territory but retreated, from 18.2 to 10.3. Uncertainty regarding companies’ outlooks continued to rise; the index increased six points to 19.3.
Labor market measures indicated slightly slower growth in employment and a continued increase in work hours. The employment index came in at 16.6, down from 20.9 but still indicative of increased head counts.
emphasis added
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
by Calculated Risk on 1/25/2021 08:19:00 AM
These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the vaccine is distributed.
IMPORTANT: Be safe now - if all goes well, we could all be vaccinated by Q2 2021.
----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -----
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.
Click on graph for larger image.
This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019-2020 (Blue) and 2020-2021 (Red).
The dashed line is the percent of last year for the seven day average.
This data is as of January 24th.
The seven day average is down 64.5% from last year (35.5% of last year). (Dashed line)
There was a slow increase from the bottom, with ups and downs due to the holidays - but TSA data has mostly moved sideways.
----- Restaurants: OpenTable -----
The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.
Thanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data:
This data is updated through January 23, 2021.
This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year."
Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown.
Dining picked up during the holidays. Note that dining is generally lower in the northern states - Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York. Note that California dining is off sharply with the orders to close.
----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -----
This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the years 2016 through 2019. Blue is 2020 and Red is 2021.
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.
Click on graph for larger image.This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019-2020 (Blue) and 2020-2021 (Red).
The dashed line is the percent of last year for the seven day average.
This data is as of January 24th.
The seven day average is down 64.5% from last year (35.5% of last year). (Dashed line)
There was a slow increase from the bottom, with ups and downs due to the holidays - but TSA data has mostly moved sideways.
The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.
Thanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data:This data is updated through January 23, 2021.
This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year."
Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown.
Dining picked up during the holidays. Note that dining is generally lower in the northern states - Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York. Note that California dining is off sharply with the orders to close.
This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the years 2016 through 2019. Blue is 2020 and Red is 2021. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through January 21st.
Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.
Movie ticket sales were at $12 million last week (compared to usually around $200 million per week at this time of year).
----- Hotel Occupancy: STR -----
This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.
The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - before 2020).
This data is through January 16th. Hotel occupancy is currently down 31.8% year-over-year. Seasonally we'd expect that business travel would start to pick up in the new year, but there will probably not be much pickup early in 2021.
Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
----- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -----
This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019.
Blue is for 2020. At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. Red is for 2021.
As of January 15th, gasoline supplied was off about 8.5% (about 91.5% of the same week in 2019).
Note: People driving instead of flying might have boosted gasoline consumption.
----- Transit: Apple Mobility -----
This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions.
There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. However the index is set "relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February", and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can't tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer.
This data is through January 24th for the United States and several selected cities.
The graph is the running 7 day average to remove the impact of weekends.
IMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data.
According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 47% of the January 2020 level. It is at 35% in Chicago, and 53% in Houston - and mostly moving sideways.
----- New York City Subway Usage -----
Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).
This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is daily data since early 2020.
This data is through Friday, January 22nd.
Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.
He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings".
Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.
Movie ticket sales were at $12 million last week (compared to usually around $200 million per week at this time of year).
This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - before 2020).
This data is through January 16th. Hotel occupancy is currently down 31.8% year-over-year. Seasonally we'd expect that business travel would start to pick up in the new year, but there will probably not be much pickup early in 2021.
Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019.Blue is for 2020. At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. Red is for 2021.
As of January 15th, gasoline supplied was off about 8.5% (about 91.5% of the same week in 2019).
Note: People driving instead of flying might have boosted gasoline consumption.
This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions.
There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. However the index is set "relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February", and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can't tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer.
This data is through January 24th for the United States and several selected cities.The graph is the running 7 day average to remove the impact of weekends.
IMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data.
According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 47% of the January 2020 level. It is at 35% in Chicago, and 53% in Houston - and mostly moving sideways.
Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).
This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is daily data since early 2020.This data is through Friday, January 22nd.
Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.
He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings".
Sunday, January 24, 2021
Sunday Night Futures
by Calculated Risk on 1/24/2021 09:07:00 PM
Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of January 24, 2021
• FOMC Preview
Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. This is a composite index of other data.
• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 6 and DOW futures are up 60 (fair value).
Oil prices were unchanged over the last week with WTI futures at $52.28 per barrel and Brent at $55.36 barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $54, and Brent was at $59 - so WTI oil prices are down about 5% year-over-year.
Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.39 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.54 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.15 per gallon year-over-year.
January 24 COVID-19 Test Results and Vaccinations
by Calculated Risk on 1/24/2021 07:20:00 PM
Note: Bloomberg has great data on vaccinations.
It is possible the 7-day average cases has peaked. Stay safe! I'm looking forward to not posting this data in a few months.
"Vaccinations in the U.S. began Dec. 14 with health-care workers, and so far 22.4 million shots have been given, according to a state-by-state tally by Bloomberg and data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In the last week, an average of 1.16 million doses per day were administered."Also check out the graphs at COVID-19 Vaccine Projections The site has several interactive graphs related to US COVID vaccinations including a breakdown of how many have had one shot, and how many have had both shots.
It is possible the 7-day average cases has peaked. Stay safe! I'm looking forward to not posting this data in a few months.
The US is now averaging close to 2 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace.
There were 1,700,000 test results reported over the last 24 hours.
There were 143,000 positive tests.
Over 73,000 US deaths have been reported so far in January. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.
Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.
The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 8.4% (red line is 7 day average). The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending).
And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site)
The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.It is possible cases and hospitalizations have peaked, but are declining from a very high level.
FOMC Preview
by Calculated Risk on 1/24/2021 10:10:00 AM
Expectations are there will be no change to rate policy when the FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
Here are some comments from Goldman Sachs economists:
"The January FOMC meeting should be fairly quiet. While the pace of economic recovery has faltered in recent months due to virus resurgence, nearly all Fed officials have said that the medium-term outlook remains bright. We expect the statement to acknowledge the negative growth news and worsening public health situation but to stop short of suggesting any downgrade to the medium-term outlook. ...Our best guess remains that the Fed begins tapering in 2022 ..."No projections will be released at this meeting. However, for review, here are the December FOMC projections.
emphasis added
Note that GDP decreased at a 5.0% annual rate in Q1, decreased at a 31.4% annual rate in Q2, and increased at 33.1% annual rate in Q3. Consensus forecasts are for GDP to increase around a 4.3% annual rate in Q4 (to be released this coming Thursday). This forecast would put the economy down around 2.4% Q4-over-Q4. Close to the bottom of the December projections.
Some early forecasts for 2021 are for GDP to increase 5% or more in 2021. For example, Merrill Lynch noted on Friday:
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
The unemployment rate was at 6.7% in December. This will put the unemployment rate in the middle of the range of the December projections for Q4.
"The economic outlook for the US is brightening. Our latest work on the consumer gives us another reason to call for upside risk to our already-above consensus GDP forecast of 5% in 2021. Tack on another targeted stimulus package of around $1tn, US growth could easily exceed 6% this year."But there also downside risk for 2021. For example, if there are vaccine resistant mutations to the virus, or it takes longer than expected to achieve "herd immunity". The pandemic is still a huge unknown.
| GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Dec 2020 | -2.5 to -2.2 | 3.7 to 5.0 | 3.0 to 3.5 | 2.2 to 2.7 |
The unemployment rate was at 6.7% in December. This will put the unemployment rate in the middle of the range of the December projections for Q4.
Note that the unemployment rate doesn't remotely capture the economic damage to the labor market. Not only are there 10.7 million people unemployed, and 4.1 million people have left the labor force since January. And millions more are being supported by various provisions of the CARES Act - that still hasn't been renewed and is schedule to expire on December 26th.
My sense is the FOMC was optimistic on the unemployment rate for 2021. Hopefully I'm wrong.
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
As of November 2020, PCE inflation was up 1.1% from November 2019.
PCE core inflation was up 1.4% in November year-over-year.
My guess is core PCE inflation (year-over-year) will increase in 2021 (from the current 1.4%), but I think too much inflation will NOT be a concern in 2021. Since we saw negative MoM PCE and core PCE reading in March and April, we should ignore a jump in YoY inflation in March, April and May!
My sense is the FOMC was optimistic on the unemployment rate for 2021. Hopefully I'm wrong.
| Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Dec 2020 | 6.7 to 6.8 | 4.7 to 5.4 | 3.8 to 4.6 | 3.5 to 4.3 |
As of November 2020, PCE inflation was up 1.1% from November 2019.
| Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Dec 2020 | 1.2 | 1.7 to 1.9 | 1.8 to 2.0 | 1.9 to 2.1 |
PCE core inflation was up 1.4% in November year-over-year.
| Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Dec 2020 | 1.4 | 1.7 to 1.8 | 1.8 to 2.0 | 1.9 to 2.1 |
My guess is core PCE inflation (year-over-year) will increase in 2021 (from the current 1.4%), but I think too much inflation will NOT be a concern in 2021. Since we saw negative MoM PCE and core PCE reading in March and April, we should ignore a jump in YoY inflation in March, April and May!
Saturday, January 23, 2021
January 23 COVID-19 Test Results and Vaccinations
by Calculated Risk on 1/23/2021 06:46:00 PM
Note: Bloomberg has great data on vaccinations.
It is possible the 7-day average cases has peaked. Stay safe! I'm looking forward to not posting this data in a few months.
"Vaccinations in the U.S. began Dec. 14 with health-care workers, and so far 21.1 million shots have been given, according to a state-by-state tally by Bloomberg and data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In the last week, an average of 1.06 million doses per day were administered."Also check out the graphs at COVID-19 Vaccine Projections The site has several interactive graphs related to US COVID vaccinations including a breakdown of how many have had one shot, and how many have had both shots.
It is possible the 7-day average cases has peaked. Stay safe! I'm looking forward to not posting this data in a few months.
The US is now averaging close to 2 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace.
There were 1,898,062 test results reported over the last 24 hours.
There were 173,729 positive tests.
Over 71,000 US deaths have been reported so far in January. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.
Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.
The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 9.1% (red line is 7 day average). The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending).
And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site)
The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.It is possible cases and hospitalizations have peaked, but are still at a very high level.
