by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2018 03:45:00 PM

From SacRealtor.org: Spring Surge: sales volume, median sales price increase for the month

March ended with 1,395 sales, marking a 23.3% increase from the 1,131 sales of February. Compared with one year ago (1,407), however, the current figure is a .9% decrease. Of the 1,395 sales this month, 192 (13.8%) cash financing, 809 (58%) used conventional, 249 (17.8%) used FHA, 89 (6.4%) used VA and 56 (4%) used Other types of financing.

Active Listing Inventory increased 5.4% from 1,724 to 1,817. The Months of Inventory, however, decreased from 1.5 to 1.3 Months. A year ago the Months of inventory was 1.1 and Active Listing Inventory stood at 1,525 listings (19.1% below the current figure).

The Average DOM (days on market) dropped from 31 to 25 month to month and the Median DOM dropped from 13 to 11.

“Days on market” represents the days between the initial listing of the home as “active” and the day it goes “pending.” 75% of all homes sold this month (1,046) were on the market for 30 days or less and 87.5% (1,222) of all homes sold in 60 days or less. Compare this to March 2014 where 79.1% of all homes sold (1,075) sold in 60 days or less.
emphasis added

CR Note: Inventory is still low, but now increasing year-over-year in Sacramento.

The statistics for March are here.

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2018 12:10:00 PM

Earlier for the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Business activity grew at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the April 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index, at 15.8, remained firmly in positive territory, although its seven-point decline from its March level pointed to a somewhat slower pace of growth. Similarly, the new orders index and the shipments index suggested ongoing, albeit more measured, growth, with the first index falling eight points to 9.0 and the second declining ten points to 17.5. Delivery times continued to lengthen, and inventories moved higher. Labor market indicators pointed to a small increase in employment and significantly longer workweeks.
emphasis added

This was below the consensus forecast, but still a solid reading.

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2018 10:04:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 69 in April, down from 70 in March. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From NAHB: Builder Confidence Slips One Point, Remains in Solid Territory

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes edged down one point to a level of 69 in April on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) but remains on firm ground.

“Strong demand for housing is keeping builders optimistic about future market conditions,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, a custom home builder from LaPlace, La. “However, builders are facing supply-side constraints, such as a lack of buildable lots and increasing construction material costs. Tariffs placed on Canadian lumber and other imported products are pushing up prices and hurting housing affordability.”

“Ongoing employment gains, rising wages and favorable demographics should spur demand for single-family homes in the months ahead,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “The minor dip in builder confidence this month is likely due to winter weather effects, which may be slowing housing activity in some pockets of the country. As we head into the spring home buying season, we can expect the market to continue to make gains at a gradual pace.”
...
The HMI index gauging buyer traffic held steady at 51, the chart measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell a single point to 77, and the component gauging current sales conditions dropped two points to 75.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the South remained unchanged at 73, the Northeast fell one point to 55, the Midwest declined two points to 66, and the West dropped three points to 76.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was close to the consensus forecast, and another solid reading.

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2018 08:38:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.6 percent from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.5 percent from March 2017.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $494.6 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent from the previous month, and 4.5 percent above March 2017. ... The January 2018 to February 2018 percent change was unrevised from down 0.1 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.6% in March.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 4.2% on a YoY basis.

The increase in March was above expectations, however sales in January and February were revised down slightly.

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2018 07:27:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of Apr 15, 2018

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for March will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in retail sales.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 18.2, down from 22.5.

• At 10:00 AM, The April NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of  70, unchanged from 70 in March. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for February.  The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in inventories.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 are up 18, and DOW futures are up 185 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $67.14 per barrel and Brent at $72.22 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $53, and Brent was at $55 - so oil prices are up about 30% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.71 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.40 per gallon - so gasoline prices are up 31 cents per gallon year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2018 11:57:00 AM

By request, a couple more graphs based on the February Personal Income and Outlays report.

The first graph is for the personal saving rate.

Click on graph for larger image.

The saving rate increased to 3.4% in February.

Personal saving was $497.4 billion in February and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 3.4 percent.

This graph shows the saving rate starting in 1959 (using a three month trailing average for smoothing) through the February Personal Income report.

After increasing sharply during the recession, and remaining around 6% for several years, the personal saving rate has decreased over the last couple of years.

The second graph shows real personal income less transfer payments in 2009 dollars. This was slow to recover following the recession, but is now increasing steadily.

From the BEA:

Personal current transfer receipts: Consists of income payments to persons for which no current services are performed and net insurance settlements.

Examples of transfer payments are Social Security (retirement and disability), Medicare, unemployment insurance and other social programs.

by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2018 08:11:00 AM

The key economic reports this week are March Housing Starts and Retail Sales.

For manufacturing, March industrial production, and the April New York, and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week.

----- Monday, Apr 16th -----
8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for March will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in retail sales.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 3.9% on a YoY basis in February.

8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 18.2, down from 22.5.

10:00 AM: The April NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of  70, unchanged from 70 in March. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for February.  The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in inventories.

----- Tuesday, Apr 17th -----

8:30 AM: Housing Starts for March.

This graph shows single and total housing starts since 1968.

The consensus is for 1.269 million SAAR, up from 1.236 million SAAR in February.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for March.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 78.0%.

----- Wednesday, Apr 18th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for March (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, Apr 19th -----
8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 226 thousand initial claims, down from 233 thousand the previous week.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 20.1, down from 22.3.

----- Friday, Apr 20th -----
10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for March 2018

by Calculated Risk on 4/13/2018 08:42:00 PM

Note: The Chinese New Year boosted inbound traffic in February, and slowed inbound traffic in March this year.

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was down 1.0% compared to the rolling 12 months ending in February.   Outbound traffic was down 0.2% compared to the rolling 12 months ending in February.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.

Trade has been strong - especially inbound - and setting record volumes most months recently.

In general imports have been increasing, and exports are mostly moving sideways recently.

by Calculated Risk on 4/13/2018 04:02:00 PM

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on Apr 13, 2018:

• Total US oil rigs were up, +7 to 815

• Horizontal oil rigs were flat at 717
...
• Not a lot of enthusiasm for adding horizontal oil rigs, high oil prices notwithstanding.

• Last week’s impression remains: Shale production growth is going to underperform expectations.

• Global oil demand growth has been running hot; +2.0 mbpd / year since November (EIA), explaining high oil prices and draws notwithstanding 1.6 mbpd US crude + ngl production growth over the last year.

• The Brent spread is above $5 / barrel – quite bullish

Click on graph for larger image.

CR note: This graph shows the US horizontal rig count by basin.

Graph and comments Courtesy of Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC.

by Calculated Risk on 4/13/2018 03:29:00 PM

Here are few Q1 GDP forecast.

From Merrill Lynch:

We continue to track 1.8% for 1Q GDP. [April 13 estimate].

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 2.0 percent on April 10, down from 2.3 percent on April 5. [April 10 estimate]

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.8% for 2018:Q1 and 2.9% for 2018:Q2. [April 13 estimate]

CR Note: It looks like another quarter around 2% or so, although there might still be some residual seasonality in the first quarter.