RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2015 01:17:00 PM
Friday, June 19, 2015
STR on Hotels: "The Best Fundamentals (Maybe in Our Lifetime)"
First from HotelNewsnow.com: Record US results set stage for more growth
April 2015 saw the highest annualized occupancy in the U.S. hotel industry’s history, [Amanda Hite, president and COO of STR said].
During the 12 months ending in April, demand was up 4.5%, which is above the industry’s 20-year compound annual growth rate of 1.6%.
BLS: Twenty-Five States had Unemployment Rate Increases in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2015 10:44:00 AM
From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary
Regional and state unemployment rates were little changed in May. Twenty-five states had unemployment rate increases from April, 9 states and the District of Columbia had decreases, and 16 states had no change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
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Nebraska had the lowest jobless rate in May, 2.6 percent. West Virginia had the highest rate among the states, 7.2 percent. The District of Columbia had a rate of 7.3 percent.
Click on graph for larger image.Fed: Q1 Household Debt Service Ratio Very Low
by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2015 09:36:00 AM
The Fed's Household Debt Service ratio through Q1 2015 was released this week: Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratios. I used to track this quarterly back in 2005 and 2006 to point out that households were taking on excessive financial obligations.
These ratios show the percent of disposable personal income (DPI) dedicated to debt service (DSR) and financial obligations (FOR) for households. Note: The Fed changed the release in Q3 2013.
Thursday, June 18, 2015
Greece Update
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2015 08:41:00 PM
A timeline from Peter Spiegel Greek debt crisis: Key dates on the road to a possible Grexit. There is very little time left.
Also from the Financial Times: Greece’s defiant youth opt for ‘chaos’ over more of the same
Looking at Payroll Employment and Unemployment Claims
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2015 04:53:00 PM
A reader asked about the relationship between initial unemployment claims and monthly payroll employment. And if claims are so low, does that mean a surge in employment gains?
There is definitely a general relationship as shown in the first graph. Note that unemployment claims are graphed inverted.
Note: For smoothing, this graph use a 3-month centered average of net payroll employment, and the 4-week average of initial unemployment claims.
Key Measures Show Low Inflation in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2015 12:32:00 PM
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.2% annualized rate) in May. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.1% (1.4% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey increased to 15.2 in June
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2015 10:05:00 AM
From the Philly Fed: June Manufacturing Survey
Manufacturing conditions in the region improved in June, according to firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments remained positive and increased over their readings in May. Employment and average work hours increased, on balance, at the reporting firms. Firms reported higher prices for raw materials and other inputs in June compared with reported price decreases in recent months. The survey’s indicators of future activity suggest that firms expect continuing growth in the manufacturing sector over the next six months.
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The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from 6.7 in May to 15.2 this month. This is the highest reading for the index since December ...
CPI increased 0.4% in May, Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 267,000
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2015 08:36:00 AM
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index was unchanged before seasonal adjustment.
Wednesday, June 17, 2015
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, CPI, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2015 08:34:00 PM
Off topic: A bizarre sight in California ... crabs attack!
Click on photo for larger image.
Photo taken at China Cove in Newport Beach, CA by Steven.
Report: Socal Home Sales up 5% year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2015 05:55:00 PM
Note: This is the data that used to be released by DataQuick (now part of CoreLogic).
