by Calculated Risk on 3/21/2015 11:58:00 AM

The key economic reports this week are February new home sales on Tuesday, existing home sales on Monday, the Consumer Price Index on Tuesday, and the third estimate of Q4 GDP on Friday.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak on Monetary Policy on Friday.

----- Monday, March 23rd -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This is a composite index of other data.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for February from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The consensus is for sales of 4.94 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in January were at a 4.82 million SAAR. Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 4.87 million SAAR.

A key will be the reported year-over-year increase in inventory of homes for sale.

12:20 PM, Speech by Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, Monetary Policy Lessons and the Way Ahead, At the Economic Club of New York, New York, N.Y

----- Tuesday, March 24th -----
8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for February. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and for core CPI to increase 0.1%.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for January 2015. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for February from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the January sales rate.

The consensus is for a decrease in sales to 475 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in February from 481 thousand in January.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March.

----- Wednesday, March 25th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in durable goods orders.

----- Thursday, March 26th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 293 thousand from 291 thousand.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for March.

----- Friday, March 27th -----
8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2014 (third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.4% annualized in Q4, up from the second estimate of 2.2%.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for March). The consensus is for a reading of 91.8, up from the preliminary reading of 91.2, but down from the February reading of 95.4.

10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly), February 2015

3:45 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, At the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Conference: The New Normal for Monetary Policy, San Francisco, Calif

by Calculated Risk on 3/21/2015 09:05:00 AM

A few excerpts from a research piece by Goldman Sachs economist Kris Dawsey: The Path to the Exit

The March FOMC statement and “dot plot” were more dovish than the market expected. The probability of a September hike looks much higher than a June hike, with a risk that the first hike could be pushed even later. Despite this week’s events, the Fed is busily planning how it will lift off from the zero lower bound when the time comes  ...

We think that the most likely outcome for the first hike is an increase in the target range to 25 to 50 basis points (from 0 to 25 basis points currently). Although not likely, there is an outside chance that the Fed could decide to start with a “mini” hike. Once the first hike occurs, the Fed probably has sufficient tools to ensure that the effective fed funds rate trades within—but likely in the bottom half of—the target range most of the time.

Despite the Fed’s guidance that interest paid on excess reserves (IOER) will be the primary tool for firming rates, we think that the Committee will significantly increase the cap on the overnight RRP (O/N RRP) facility around the time of the first hike as an insurance policy. ... In our view, flexibility with regard to tactics and a process of “learning by doing” will probably be key features of the early part of the exit.

Sometime after the first hike the Fed will allow its balance sheet to begin shrinking, resulting in a gradual increase in the term premium. ... Our forecast for the start of portfolio runoff is 2016 Q1, with risk skewed toward a later date, and we think that the initial step will probably be a switch to a policy of partial reinvestment. Although the Fed has stated that asset sales are not part of its normalization plan at this time, it is possible to imagine scenarios which could push the Fed in this direction.

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2015 06:15:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates End Week at March Lows

Mortgage rates moved modestly lower on average today after doing an admirable job of holding their ground amid weaker market conditions yesterday. That weakness was largely the result of a technical correction to the immense strength seen after Wednesday's Fed Announcement and Press Conference. The following two days have essentially legitimized that strength as something other than a temporary knee jerk reaction.
...
Most lenders are now quoting a conventional 30yr fixed rate of 3.75% for top tier scenarios. There's more consensus on that one rate than normal. Many lenders that had been at 3.875% are just barely into the 3.75% territory after this week's gains, but underlying market levels are quite strong enough and haven't been maintained long enough for too many lenders to make the foray down to 3.625%.

Note: rates are still above the level required for a significant increase in refinance activity. Historically refinance activity picks up significantly when mortgage rates fall about 50 bps from a recent level.

Based on the relationship between the 30 year mortgage rate and 10-year Treasury yields, the 10-year Treasury yield would probably have to decline to 1.5% or lower for a significant refinance boom (in the near future). With the 10-year yield currently at 1.93%, I don't expect a significant increase in refinance activity.

Here is a table from Mortgage News Daily:

Home Loan Rates

View More Refinance Rates

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2015 01:30:00 PM

From Zillow: Even as Home Values Rise, Negative Equity Rate Flattens

In the fourth quarter of 2014, the U.S. negative equity rate – the percentage of all homeowners with a mortgage that are underwater, owing more on their home than it is worth – stood at 16.9 percent, unchanged from the third quarter. Negative equity had fallen quarter-over-quarter for ten straight quarters, or two-and-a-half years, prior to flattening out between Q3 and Q4 of last year.

While this may not seem very notable (after all, overall negative equity didn’t go up, merely flattened out), this represents a major turning point in the housing market. The days in which rapid and fairly uniform home value appreciation contributed to steep drops in negative equity are behind us, and a new normal has arrived. Negative equity, while it may still fall in fits and spurts, is decidedly here to stay, and will impact the market for years to come.
emphasis added

The following graph from Zillow shows negative equity by Loan-to-Value (LTV) in Q4 2014.

Click on graph for larger image.

From Zillow:

Nationally, of the homeowners who are underwater, around half are only underwater by 20 percent or less, which is to say they are close to escaping negative equity. (Figure 2) On the other hand, 1.9 percent of all owners with a mortgage remain deeply underwater, owing at least twice what their home is worth. Of the largest metro areas, markets with above average rates of deeply underwater homeowners include Las Vegas (3.8 percent), Chicago (3.8 percent), Atlanta (3.5 percent), Detroit (3.3 percent) and Miami (2.8 percent)

Almost half of the borrowers with negative equity have a LTV of 100% to 120% (8.2% in Q4 2014). Most of these borrowers are current on their mortgages - and they have probably either refinanced with HARP or their loans are well seasoned (most of these properties were purchased in the 2004 through 2006 period, so borrowers have been current for ten years or so). In a few years, these borrowers will have positive equity.

The key concern is all those borrowers with LTVs above 140% (about 5.2% of properties with a mortgage according to Zillow). It will take many years to return to positive equity ... and a large percentage of these properties will eventually be distressed sales (short sales or foreclosures).

Note: CoreLogic released their Q4 2014 negative equity earlier this week. For Q4, CoreLogic reported there were 5.4 million properties with negative equity, up slightly from Q3.

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2015 11:47:00 AM

Here is a survey I follow.

From Campbell Surveys: Spring Home Buying Season Expected To Be Strong, Particularly for First-Time Homebuyers, According to HousingPulse Survey (no link)

Trends in homebuyer traffic along with rising demand from first-time homebuyers point toward a strong spring home buying season, according to the latest Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey.

“Both the data and comments from real-estate agents support expectations for a strong spring/summer buyer season,” said Tom Popik, research director for Campbell Surveys.

The Homebuyer Traffic Diffusion Indexes for first-time homebuyers and current homeowners hit levels in February above those seen a year ago. Traffic was strongest from first-time homebuyers, with a traffic diffusion index of 61.4 in February compared with 56.8 in February 2014. Any reading on the index above 50 indicates increasing traffic.

We will see soon.