by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2014 05:35:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Now at 1-Month Lows

Mortgage rates continue making improvements so small and so steady that they're barely noticeable, but they're improvements just the same. That's recently left us in the best territory in nearly a month. Today extends those slow and steady gains just enough to technically claim the "1-month low" designation, despite the fact that rates aren't materially different than they have been. The most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate remains 4.0% for top tier borrowers, but each day of modest improvement brings us closer to 3.875% and puts 4.125% farther in the rearview

Here is a table from Mortgage News Daily:

Home Loan Rates

View More Refinance Rates

by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2014 01:14:00 PM

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). The timing of different house prices indexes; Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.

From Black Knight: U.S. Home Prices Down Slightly for the Month; Up 4.6 Percent Year-Over-Year

Today, the Data and Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services​ released its latest Home Price Index (HPI) report, based on September 2014 residential real estate transactions. The Black Knight HPI combines the company’s extensive property and loan-level databases to produce a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates every month for each of more than 18,500 U.S. ZIP codes. The Black Knight HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales.

The Black Knight HPI declined 0.01% percent in September, and is off 10.2% from the peak in June 2006 (not adjusted for inflation).

The year-over-year increases have been getting steadily smaller for the last year - as shown in the table below:

Month	YoY House Price Increase
Jan-13	6.7%
Feb-13	7.3%
Mar-13	7.6%
Apr-13	8.1%
May-13	7.9%
Jun-13	8.4%
Jul-13	8.7%
Aug-13	9.0%
Sep-13	9.0%
Oct-13	8.8%
Nov-13	8.5%
Dec-13	8.4%
Jan-14	8.0%
Feb-14	7.6%
Mar-14	7.0%
Apr-14	6.4%
May-14	5.9%
June-14	5.5%
July-14	5.1%
Aug-14	4.9%
Sep-14	4.6%

The press release has data for the 20 largest states, and 40 MSAs.

Black Knight shows prices off 41.0% from the peak in Las Vegas, off 34.3% in Orlando, and 31.7% off from the peak in Riverside-San Bernardino, CA (Inland Empire). Prices are at new highs in Colorado and Texas (Denver, Austin, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio metros). Prices are also at new highs in Honolulu, HI, Nashville, TN and San Jose, CA.

Note: Case-Shiller for September will be released tomorrow.

by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2014 10:37:00 AM

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Posts Slower Growth

Texas factory activity increased again in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell from 13.7 to 6, indicating output growth slowed in November.

Other measures of current manufacturing activity also reflected slower growth during the month. The capacity utilization index fell sharply from 18.1 to 9.8. The new orders index also declined notably from 14.2 to 5.6, although more than a quarter of firms continued to note increases in new orders over October levels. The shipments index was 12.1, nearly unchanged from its October reading.

Perceptions of broader business conditions remained positive this month, while outlooks were less optimistic. The general business activity index held steady at a solid reading of 10.5. The company outlook index dropped from 18.2 to 8.8, due to a smaller share of firms noting an improved outlook in November than in October.

Labor market indicators reflected continued employment growth and longer workweeks. The November employment index posted a sixth robust reading, coming in at 9.6.
emphasis added

The last of the regional Fed surveys (Richmond) will be released tomorrow. So far the surveys have been solid in November.

by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2014 08:41:00 AM

The Chicago Fed released the national activity index (a composite index of other indicators): Index shows economic growth decelerated in August

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved down to +0.14 in October from +0.29 in September. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from September, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in October.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined to –0.01 in October from +0.12 in September. October’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was near its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
emphasis added

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Click on graph for larger image.

This suggests economic activity was close to the historical trend in October (using the three-month average).

According to the Chicago Fed:

What is the National Activity Index? The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.

A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.

by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2014 07:30:00 PM

From Professor Hamilton at Econbrowser: Lower oil prices and the U.S. economy

Last year Americans consumed 135 billion gallons of gasoline. That means that if prices stay where they are, consumers will have an extra $108 billion each year to spend on other things. And if the historical pattern holds, spend it they will.
...
[A]nother thing that’s changed is that much more of the oil we consume is now being produced right here at home. While lower prices are a boon for consumers, they pose a potential threat to producers ... Nevertheless, there should be no question that at this point this is a favorable development on-balance for the U.S. economy. We’re still importing 5 million more barrels each day of petroleum and products than we are exporting. Importing fewer barrels, and paying less for the barrels we do import, is a good thing.

Overall a nice boost for the U.S. economy.

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a composite index of other data.

• At 10:30 AM, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for November.

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 16th

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently the S&P futures are up slightly and DOW futures are also up slightly (fair value).

Oil prices were up a little over the last week with WTI futures at $76.58 per barrel and Brent at $80.04 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $94, and Brent was at $108 - so prices are down more than 20%  year-over-year.

Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are around $2.82 per gallon (down about 30 cents from a year ago).  If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com