by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2014 05:17:00 PM

From the FDIC: Community & Southern Bank, Atlanta, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of Eastside Commercial Bank, Conyers, Georgia

As of March 31, 2014, Eastside Commercial Bank had approximately $169.0 million in total assets and $161.6 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $33.9 million. ... Eastside Commercial Bank is the 13th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Georgia.

There hasn't been a failure in Georgia since May 2013, but this is the 88th failure in Georgia since the crisis started - the most of any state.

by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2014 01:52:00 PM

Just a quick graph ... heavy truck sales really collapsed during the recession, falling to a low of 181 thousand in April 2009 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) from a peak of 555 thousand in February 2006.

Sales were above 382 thousand (SAAR) in June (after increasing to over 400 thousand SAAR in April for the first time since 2007).


Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is current estimated sales rate.

The recovery for heavy truck has slowed, but as construction for both residential and commercial picks up, heavy truck sales will probably increase further.

by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2014 10:45:00 AM

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed in June. Twenty-two states and the District of Columbia had unemployment rate decreases from May, 14 states had increases, and 14 states had no change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Forty-nine states and the District of Columbia had unemployment rate decreases from a year earlier and one state had an increase.
...
Mississippi and Rhode Island had the highest unemployment rates among the states in June, 7.9 percent each. North Dakota again had the lowest jobless rate, 2.7 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the current unemployment rate for each state (red), and the max during the recession (blue). All states are well below the maximum unemployment rate for the recession.

The size of the blue bar indicates the amount of improvement. 

The states are ranked by the highest current unemployment rate. Rhode Island and Mississippi had the highest unemployment rates in June at 7.9%.

The second graph shows the number of states with unemployment rates at or above certain levels since January 2006. At the worst of the employment recession, there were 10 states with an unemployment rate at or above 11% (red).

For the first time since mid-2008, no state has an unemployment rate at or above 8% (light blue), although 9 states are still at or above 7% (dark blue).

by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2014 09:55:00 AM

Click on graph for larger image.

The preliminary Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for July was at 81.3, down from 82.5 in June.

This was below the consensus forecast of 83.0. Sentiment has generally been improving following the recession - with plenty of ups and downs - and a big spike down when Congress threatened to "not pay the bills" in 2011.

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2014 08:12:00 PM

From DataQuick: California Foreclosure Starts Lowest Since 2005

A total of 17,524 Notices of Default (NoDs) were recorded at county recorders offices during the April-through-June period. That was down 8.8 percent from 19,215 in the prior quarter, and down 31.9 percent from 25,747 in second-quarter 2013, according to DataQuick, which is owned by Irvine-based CoreLogic, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider.

Last quarter's NoD tally was the lowest since fourth-quarter 2005, when 15,337 NoDs were recorded. NoD filings peaked in first-quarter 2009 at 135,431. DataQuick's NoD statistics go back to 1992.

"It looks like the mortgage servicers doing the foreclosure paperwork are systematically working through a backlog. While their pile is getting smaller, they're working at a steady pace. With one exception, the number of NoDs we've seen filed each quarter over the last year-and-a-half hasn't changed much, and probably just reflects staffing and workload logistics," said John Karevoll, DataQuick analyst.

In first quarter 2013 California saw 18,568 NoDs filed. In last year's second quarter the number was 25,747. In third quarter 2013 it was 20,314. Fourth quarter was 18,120. In first quarter 2014 the tally was 19,215, and last quarter it was 17,524.

"The relatively high NoD tally in second quarter last year reflected a one-time bump because of deferred activity and policy change. Otherwise the quarterly flow of NoDs since early last year has been remarkably flat, and probably doesn't reflect any meaningful changes in trends. The overall trend is that homeowner distress continues to decline because of a stronger economy and rising home prices," Karevoll said.

Most of the loans going into default are still from the 2005-2007 period.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the number of Notices of Default (NoD) filed in California each year.   2014 is in red (Q1 plus Q2 times 2).

Last year was the lowest year for foreclosure starts since 2005, and 2013 was also below the levels in 1997 through 2000 when prices were rising following the much smaller late '80s housing bubble / early '90s bust in California.

Overall foreclosure starts are close to a normal level in California (foreclosure starts were over 50,000 in 2004 and 2005 when prices were rising quickly).

Note: Foreclosures are still higher than normal in states with a judicial foreclosure process.