by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2012 03:35:00 PM

From Professor Tim Duy at EconomistView: Draghi Blinks. Maybe.. A few excerpts:

It looks like Draghi finally found that panic button. This is crucial, as the ECB is the only institution that can bring sufficient firepower to the table in a timely fashion. His specific reference to the disruption in policy transmission appears to be a clear signal that the ECB will resume purchases of periphery debt, presumably that of Spain and possibly Italy. The ECB will - rightly, in my opinion - justify the purchases as easing financial conditions not monetizing deficit spending.

So far, so good. But there is enough in these statements to leave me very unsettled. First, the claim that the Euro is "irreversible" should send a shiver down everyone's backs. Sounds just a little too much like "the crisis is contained to subprime" and "Spain will not need a bailout." Second, the bluster that "believe me, it will be enough" is suspect. The ECB always thinks they have done enough, but so far this has not been the case. Moreover, he is setting some pretty high expectations, and had better be prepared to meet them with something more than half-hearted bond purchases.

Also, note that despite Draghi's bluster, the rally in Spanish debt send yields just barely below the 7% mark.
...
More distressing to me was Draghi's clearly defiant tone, reminiscent of comments earlier this week from German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble. The message is that Europe has done all the right things, it is financial market participants that are doing the wrong things.

As Duy noted, Spanish 10 year bond yields have only fallen to 6.93% - not a huge vote of confidence.

Usually - whenever a European policymakers sounds like they have found the "panic button" - Schäuble speaks up and squashes all hope. Luckily Schäuble is going on vacation ...

by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2012 11:58:00 AM

From economist Tom Lawler:

The Ryland Group, the 8th largest US home builder in 2011, reported that net home orders in the quarter ended June 30th, 2012 (including discontinued operations) totaled 1,415, up 32.9% from the comparable quarter of 2011. The company’s sales cancellation rate, expressed as a % of gross orders, was 20.0% last quarter, down from 20.7% a year ago. Home deliveries totaled 1,149, up 30.0% from the comparable quarter of last year, at an average sales price of $253,000, up 3.3% from a year ago. The company’s order backlog at the end of June was 2,289, up 39.1% from last June.

Pulte Group, the 2nd largest US home builder in 2011, reported that net home orders in the quarter ended June 30th, 2012 totaled 5,578, up 32.1% from the comparable quarter of 2011. Home deliveries last quarter totaled 3,816, up 5.0% from the comparable quarter of last year, at an average sales price of $268,000, up 8.1% from a year ago. The company’s order backlog at the end of June was 7,560, up 30.9% from last June. The company attributed the increase in average sales prices to a favorable mix of home closings, improved pricing, and “value creation efforts.”

Meritage Homes, the 10th largest US home builder in 2011, reported that net home orders in the quarter ended June 30th, 2012 totaled 1,353, up 48.7% from the comparable quarter of 2011. The company’s sales cancellation rate, expressed as a % of gross orders, was 13% last quarter, down from 15% a year ago. Home deliveries last quarter totaled 1,042, up 21.7% from the comparable quarter of last year, at an average sales price of $270,000, up 5.0% from a year ago. The company’s order backlog at the end of June was 1,611, up 62.1% from last June.

M/I Homes, the 16th largest US home builder in 2011, reported that net home orders in the quarter ended June 30th, 2012 totaled 826, up 30.1% from the comparable quarter of 2011. The company’s sales cancellation rate, expressed as a % of gross orders, was 16% last quarter, down from 20% a year ago. Home deliveries last quarter totaled 625, up 5.9% from the comparable quarter of last year, at an average sales price of $259,000, up 14.1% from a year ago. The company’s order backlog at the end of June was 1,168, up 40.2% from last June.

So far five large public home builders have reported results for the quarter ended 6/30/2012, and with the exception of NVR net orders were above “consensus” and sales cancellation rates were down. In addition, all builders reporting so far have reported increases in average sales prices and higher margins from a year ago. While part of the sales price gains are probably “mix” related, in general it appears as if in most parts of the country home builders last quarter were able to sell comparable-type homes at “effective” (including sales incentives/discounts) prices higher than a year ago. This jives with other “incoming” home price index data.

CR Note: Here is a summary from Lawler of some stats reported by publicly traded home builders for last quarter.

	Settlements			Net Orders			Backlog
	6/12	6/11	6/10	6/12	6/11	6/10	6/12	6/11	6/10
PulteGroup	3,816	3,633	5,030	5,578	4,222	4,218	7,560	5,777	5,644
NVR	2,475	2,207	3,354	2,614	2,468	2,559	5,048	3,946	3,766
The Ryland Group	1,149	885	1,505	1,415	1,065	959	2,289	1,646	1,368
Meritage Homes	1,042	856	1,207	1,353	910	900	1,611	994	1,044
M/I Homes	625	590	790	826	635	602	1,168	833	748
Total	9,107	8,171	11,886	11,786	9,300	9,238	17,676	13,196	12,570
YoY % Change	11.5%	-31.3%		26.7%	0.7%		33.9%	5.0%

Note the large YOY change in order backlog, which is likely to translate into solid gains in SF housing starts and overall SF construction spending in the third quarter of this year.

Standard Pacific Homes, the 13th largest US home builder in 2011, reports results after the market close today. D.R. Horton, the largest US home builder in 2011, reports results tomorrow. MDC Holdings, the 11th largest US home builder in 2011, reports results on July 31st. And Beazer Homes, the 9th largest US home builder in 2011, reports results on August 3rd.

Results reported by home builders so far, however, suggest that the new SF housing market last quarter was considerably stronger than “consensus,” and right now I expect that the eight-month string of upward revisions to Census’ preliminary estimates for new SF home sales will continue in next month’s report.

CR Note: This was from housing economist Tom Lawler.

by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2012 11:00:00 AM

From the Kansas City Fed: Growth in Tenth District Manufacturing Remained Modest

Growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity remained modest in July, and producers were slightly more optimistic than a month ago.. ...

The month-over-month composite index was 5 in July, up from 3 in June but down from 9 in May ... The production index fell further from 12 to 2, and the shipments index dipped into negative territory. The new orders for export index dropped from -7 to -13, almost matching the all-time low of -14 in early 2009. However, the new orders index edged up from -7 to -4, and the employment and order backlog indexes also improved over last month.

The future composite index climbed from 8 to 13, and future new orders and order backlog indexes also rose after decreasing in June. The future employment index edged higher from 13 to 16, while the future production, shipments, and employee workweek indexes were unchanged. The future capital expenditures index increased from 17 to 20, and the future new orders for exports index improved slightly.

The regional manufacturing surveys have been mixed in July, although the Richmond Fed survey was especially weak.

The last of the regional surveys will be released next week (Dallas Fed).

by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2012 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Slip in June, Remain Above a Year Ago

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, slipped 1.4 percent to 99.3 in June from a downwardly revised 100.7 in May but is 9.5 percent higher than June 2011 when it was 90.7. The data reflect contracts but not closings.

The PHSI in the Northeast fell 7.6 percent to 76.6 in June but is 12.2 percent higher than a year ago. In the Midwest the index slipped 0.4 percent to 94.4 in June but is 17.3 percent above June 2011. Pending home sales in the South declined 2.0 percent to an index of 106.2 in June but are 8.8 percent above a year earlier. In the West the index rose 2.6 percent in June to 111.5 and is 3.0 percent higher than June 2011.

This was below the consensus forecast of a 0.9% increase for this index.

Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this is for sales in July and August.

by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2012 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending July 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 353,000, a decrease of 35,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 388,000.(Revised up from 386,000). The 4-week moving average was 367,250, a decrease of 8,750 from the previous week's revised average of 376,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims declined to 367,250.

The sharp swings over the last few weeks are apparently related to difficulty adjusting for auto plant shutdowns.

And here is a long term graph of weekly claims:

This was well below the consensus forecast of 380,000 and is the lowest level for the four week average since March.


All current Employment Graphs