by Calculated Risk on 10/22/2010 07:11:00 PM

Great gaping gullet
Federal feeding frenzy
Huge heartland heartburn
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Seaway Bank and Trust Company, Chicago, Illinois, Assumes All of the Deposits of First Suburban National Bank, Maywood, Illinois

As of June 30, 2010, First Suburban National Bank had approximately $148.7 million in total assets and $140.0 million in total deposits ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $31.4 million. .... First Suburban National Bank is the 137th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 16th in Illinois.

From the FDIC: Hillcrest Bank, National Association, Overland Park, Kansas, Assumes All of the Deposits of Hillcrest Bank, Overland Park, Kansas

As of June 30, 2010, Hillcrest Bank had approximately $1.65 billion in total assets and $1.54 billion in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $329.7 million. ... Hillcrest Bank is the 138th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the third in Kansas.

by Calculated Risk on 10/22/2010 06:27:00 PM

Swing stable door shut
Far too late for Barnsville now
Money's ridden off
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: United Bank, Zebulon, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of The First National Bank of Barnesville, Barnesville, Georgia

As of June 30, 2010, The First National Bank of Barnesville had approximately $131.4 million in total assets and $127.1 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $33.9 million. ... The First National Bank of Barnesville is the 136th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 16th in Georgia.

Four down ...

by Calculated Risk on 10/22/2010 05:09:00 PM

Bright pyrite nuggets
Florida, Georgia failures
A phantom luster
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Ameris Bank, Moultrie, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of First Bank of Jacksonville, Jacksonville, Florida

As of June 30, 2010, First Bank of Jacksonville had approximately $81.0 million in total assets and $77.3 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $16.2 million. ... First Bank of Jacksonville is the 133rd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 26th in Florida.

From the FDIC: Bay Cities Bank, Tampa, Florida, Assumes All of the Deposits of Progress Bank of Florida, Tampa, Florida

As of June 30, 2010, Progress Bank of Florida had approximately $110.7 million in total assets and $101.3 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $25.0 million. ... Progress Bank of Florida is the 134th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 27th in Florida.

From the FDIC: Morris Bank, Dublin, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of The Gordon Bank, Gordon, Georgia

As of June 30, 2010, The Gordon Bank had approximately $29.4 million in total assets and $26.7 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $9.0 million. ... The Gordon Bank is the 135th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 15th in Georgia.

by Calculated Risk on 10/22/2010 04:07:00 PM

From the National Employment Law Project: 1.2 Million Workers Out in the Cold for the Holidays If Congress Fails to Renew Federal Jobless Benefits that Expire November 30th

A new analysis released by the National Employment Law Project today reveals that 1.2 million workers will be cut off of federal jobless benefits by year’s end if Congress fails to renew the federal emergency extensions that expire on November 30th.
...
Of the 1.2 million workers at risk of losing federal benefits, 387,000 are workers who were recently laid-off and are now receiving the six months (26 weeks) of regular state benefits. After exhausting state benefits, these workers would be left to fend for themselves in a job market with just one job opening for every five unemployed workers and an unemployment rate that has exceeded nine percent for 17 months in a row—with no federal unemployment assistance whatsoever.

This doesn't include the '99ers - the workers who have exhausted all available unemployment benefits.

by Calculated Risk on 10/22/2010 12:58:00 PM

I usually focus on Case-Shiller and Corelogic repeat sales house price indexes. Case-Shiller is the mostly widely followed, and the Federal Reserve uses Corelogic.

The Clear Capital index is also repeat sales, with a price-per-square-foot model, and is a rolling three months average that can be updated daily. I thought I'd pass along this alert today:

Clear Capital™ Reports Sudden and Dramatic Drop in U.S. Home Prices

“Clear Capital’s latest data through October 22 shows even more pronounced price declines than our most recent HDI market report released two weeks ago,” said Dr. Alex Villacorta, senior statistician, Clear Capital. “At the national level, home prices are clearly experiencing a dramatic drop from the tax credit-induced highs, effectively wiping out all of the gains obtained during the flurry of activity just preceding the tax credit expiration.”

This special Clear Capital Home Data Index (HDI) alert shows that national home prices have declined 5.9% in just two months and are now at the same level as in mid April 2010, two weeks prior to the expiration of the recent federal homebuyer tax credit. This significant drop in prices, in advance of the typical winter housing market slowdowns, paints an ominous picture that will likely show up in other home data indices in the coming months.

... if previous correlations between the Clear Capital and S&P/Case-Shiller indices continue as expected, the next two months will show a similar downward trend in S&P/Case Shiller numbers.

The most recent Case-Shiller numbers were for July (actually a three month average of May, June and July). The August numbers will be released next Tuesday (an average of June, July and August) - so there is a significant lag in the numbers.

by Calculated Risk on 10/22/2010 10:00:00 AM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the high and low unemployment rates for each state (and D.C.) since 1976. The red bar is the current unemployment rate (sorted by the current unemployment rate).

Eleven states now have double digit unemployment rates. A number of other states are close.

Nevada tied a series high at 14.4% and now has the highest state unemployment rate. Michigan held the top spot for over 4 years until May.

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Regional and state unemployment rates were little changed in September. Twenty-three states and the District of Columbia recorded unemployment rate decreases, 11 states registered rate increases, and 16 states had no rate change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
...
In September, Nevada’s unemployment rate held at 14.4 percent, again the highest among the states. The states with the next highest rates were Michigan, 13.0 percent, and California, 12.4 percent. North Dakota continued to register the lowest jobless rate, 3.7 percent, followed by South Dakota and Nebraska, at 4.4 and 4.6 percent, respectively.

by Calculated Risk on 10/22/2010 08:37:00 AM

From a letter .S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner sent to his G-20 counterparts:

“First, G-20 countries should commit to undertake policies consistent with reducing external imbalances below a specified share of GDP over the next few years, recognizing that some exceptions may be required for countries that are structurally large exporters of raw materials. This means that G-20 countries running persistent deficits should boost national savings by adopting credible medium-term fiscal targets consistent with sustainable debt levels and by strengthening export performance.

Conversely, G-20 countries with persistent surpluses should undertake structural, fiscal and exchange rate policies to boost domestic sources of growth and support global demand. Since our current account balances depend on our own policy choices as well as on the policies pursued by other G-20 countries, these commitments require a cooperative effort.

“Second, to facilitate the orderly rebalancing of global demand, G-20 countries should commit to refrain from exchange rate policies designed to achieve competitive advantage by either weakening their currency or preventing the appreciation of an undervalued currency.

G-20 emerging market countries with significantly undervalued currencies and adequate precautionary reserves need to allow their exchange rates to adjust fully over time to levels consistent with economic fundamentals. G-20 advanced countries will work to ensure against excessive volatility and disorderly movement in exchange rates.

Together these actions should reduce the risk of excessive volatility in capital flows for emerging economies that have flexible exchange rates.

And the proposal has plenty of opposition - no surprise - from the WSJ: G-20 Proposal on Curbing Trade Imbalances Faces Opposition

Japan and Germany, whose export-led growth models have built up major trade surpluses, are opposing such a solution at the meeting of G-20 finance ministers and central bankers in Gyeongju.

"The idea of setting numerical targets is unrealistic," Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said Friday.

by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2010 10:38:00 PM

Just an update ... it seems like the Shanghai and the S&P 500 (and oil prices too - not shown) are all moving together.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Shanghai SSE Composite Index and the S&P 500 (in blue).

The SSE Composite index is at 2,963.50, up about 14% since late August. The S&P 500 and oil are both up about 10% over the same period.

by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2010 06:17:00 PM

A few people have asked me for a summary of the views of current FOMC members concerning QE2. Although no one has committed, here is my best guess based on recent speeches or other information ... there appears to be a majority of FOMC member who will vote "Yes", not counting the three labeled as "probably".

Person, Position	FOMC Membership	QE2 Position
Ben S. Bernanke, Board of Governors, Chairman	FOMC	Yes
Janet L. Yellen, Fed Vice Chairman, Board of Governors	FOMC	Yes
William C. Dudley, New York, FOMC Vice Chairman	FOMC	Yes
James Bullard, St. Louis	FOMC	Yes
Elizabeth A. Duke, Board of Governors	FOMC	Yes (probably)
Thomas M. Hoenig, Kansas City	FOMC	No
Sandra Pianalto, Cleveland	FOMC	Yes
Sarah Bloom Raskin, Board of Governors	FOMC	Yes (probably)
Eric S. Rosengren, Boston	FOMC	Yes
Daniel K. Tarullo, Board of Governors	FOMC	Yes (probably)
Kevin M. Warsh, Board of Governors	FOMC	Undecided
Charles L. Evans, Chicago	Alternate	Yes
Richard W. Fisher, Dallas	Alternate	Undecided
Narayana Kocherlakota, Minneapolis	Alternate	Undecided
Charles I. Plosser, Philadelphia	Alternate	No
Christine M. Cumming, First Vice President, New York	Alternate	Unknown

by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2010 02:17:00 PM

Hotel occupancy is one of several industry specific indicators I follow ...

Important: Even though the occupancy rate is close to 2008 levels, 2010 is a much more difficult year for the hotel industry than 2008. RevPAR (revenue per available room) is up 9.4% compared to 2009, but still down 7.8% compared to 2008 - and 2008 was a very difficult year for the hotel industry.

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: Economy ADR performance falls short

Overall occupancy increased 8.3% to 63.8%, ADR was up 0.9% to US$100.40, and RevPAR ended the week up 9.4% to US$64.09.

The following graph shows the four week moving average for the occupancy rate by week for 2008, 2009 and 2010 (and a median for 2000 through 2007).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Notes: the scale doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The graph shows the 4-week average, not the weekly occupancy rate.

On a 4-week basis, occupancy is up 7.9% compared to last year (the worst year since the Great Depression) and 6.1% below the median for 2000 through 2007.

The occupancy rate is about at the levels of 2008, but RevPAR is still down 7.8%.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com