by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2009 09:00:00 PM

Loudon Wainwright III performs at Madison Square Park in NYC (June 17, 2009)

"Fear Itself"

Repeat: "The Krugman Blues"



*No, I don't think the economy is in a depression ...

by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2009 05:13:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

These are spot prices for Cushing WTI from the EIA (source).

It is fun to look back ... I started speculating in March '08 about a sharp decline in oil prices in the 2nd half of 2008.

And I posted many times in the late spring about demand destruction (like fewer U.S miles driven), Asian countries reducing gasoline subsidies, China stock piling oil for the Olympics, etc.

But this story was probably the key clue that oil prices were peaking (from June 28, 2008). From the NY Times: Cruise Night, Without the Car

For car-loving American teenagers, this is turning out to be the summer the cruising died.
...
From coast to coast, American teenagers appear to be driving less this summer. Police officers who keep watch on weekend cruising zones say fewer youths are spending their time driving around in circles...

We knew it was almost over when teenagers stopped cruising!

by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2009 01:38:00 PM

From the Telegraph: UK homeowners pay back a record £8.1bn of mortgage debt

Britons injected £8.1bn to pay off their mortgage debt in the first three months of 2009, the Bank of England said on Friday ... The figure compares with a £7.7bn injection in the final three months of 2008 ...

"Sharply falling house prices have made housing equity withdrawal increasingly unattractive, while very tight credit conditions have made it more difficult to carry out the process as well as to take out new mortgages," said Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight.

"In addition, ever lower savings rates have made it increasingly more attractive for many people to use any spare funds that they have to reduce their mortgages," he added.

This is the fourth consecutive quarter with homeowners reducing their mortgage debt in the U.K..

The following is from the Bank of England: Housing Equity Withdrawal (HEW) Q1 2009

HEW occurs when lending secured on housing increases by more than investment in the housing stocks. Investment comprises new houses, home improvements, transfers of houses between sectors, and house moving costs, such as stamp duty and legal fees (although these fees do not add to the value of the housing stock, they are measured as investment, so reduce the funds available for consumption). So HEW measures mortgage lending that is available for consumption or for investment in financial assets (or to pay off debt).

by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2009 10:39:00 AM

By popular request ...

The FDIC closed seven more banks yesterday, and the following graph shows bank failures by week for 2009.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

So far there have been 52 FDIC bank failures in 2009.

It appears the pace has picked up lately (12 bank closings over the last two weeks).

Note: Week 1 ends Jan 9th.

This is nothing compared to the S&L crisis. There were 28 weeks during the S&L crisis when regulators closed 10 or more banks, and the peak was April 20, 1998 with 60 bank closures (there were 7 separate weeks with more than 30 closures in the late '80s and early '90s).

The second graph covers the entire FDIC period (since 1934).

Back in the '80s, there was some minor multiple counting ... as an example, when First City of Texas failed on Oct 30, 1992 there were 18 different banks closed by the FDIC. This multiple counting was minor, and there were far more bank failures in the late '80s and early '90s than this year.

Of course the number of banks isn't the only measure. Many banks today have more branches, and far more assets and deposits. For a summary by size, see: FDIC Bank Failures: By the Numbers

by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2009 09:40:00 AM

From the NY Times: S.E.C. May Reinstate Rules for Short-Selling Stocks

The Securities and Exchange Commission appears poised to reverse itself and reinstate rules that would make shorting stocks ... somewhat more difficult.

...the most likely outcome may be for the S.E.C. to reinstate ... the uptick rule ...

“I don’t mind what I see as minor inconveniences,” said Whitney Tilson, an author and managing partner of T2 Partners, “if it will get rid of the critics who like to blame short-sellers every time a stock goes down.”

Some people will always blame the short sellers.

by Calculated Risk on 7/02/2009 11:41:00 PM

A little night music: Loudon Wainwright III performs 'The Krugman Blues' at Madison Square Park in NYC (June 17, 2009)

Note: The last music video I posted featuring an economist was Merle Hazard's discussion with John Taylor (very funny).

UPDATE: And here is Krugman's column tonight: That ’30s Show

Since the recession began, the U.S. economy has lost 6 ½ million jobs — and as that grim employment report confirmed, it’s continuing to lose jobs at a rapid pace. Once you take into account the 100,000-plus new jobs that we need each month just to keep up with a growing population, we’re about 8 ½ million jobs in the hole.

And the deeper the hole gets, the harder it will be to dig ourselves out. The job figures weren’t the only bad news in Thursday’s report, which also showed wages stalling and possibly on the verge of outright decline. That’s a recipe for a descent into Japanese-style deflation, which is very difficult to reverse. Lost decade, anyone?

Wait — there’s more bad news ...

by Calculated Risk on 7/02/2009 08:48:00 PM

A little sublease space in D.C. Click on photo for larger image in new window. Photo Credit: a reader in dc Taken today, July 2, 2009.

Employment

Here is a repeat of one of the graphs this morning:

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms (as opposed to the number of jobs lost).

The current recession is now the 2nd worst recession since WWII in percentage terms - and also in terms of the unemployment rate (only early '80s recession was worse).

And a few posts:
Employment Report: 467K Jobs Lost, 9.5% Unemployment Rate

Unemployment: Stress Test Scenarios, Diffusion Index, Weekly Claims

Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers, Hours Worked

From Paul Krugman on wages: Smells like deflation

The FDIC reports seven bank failures (a weekly high for this cycle).

Personal Bankruptcy Filings increase 40% in June (YoY)

Hotel RevPAR off 17.4%

Naught for the Naughts? Just an observation ...

On the '00s (the "Naughts") ...

Employment Dec 1999: 130.53 million
Employment Jun 2009: 131.69 million

A gain of just 1.16 million. What are the odds that the economy loses another 1.16 million jobs over the next 6 months? Pretty high. That would mean no net jobs added to the economy for the naughts: Naught for the Naughts!

by Calculated Risk on 7/02/2009 06:48:00 PM

Six was not enough
Founders gambled deposits
Then rolled a seven.
by Soylent Green is People

From the FDIC: The PrivateBank and Trust Company, Chicago, Illinois, Assumes All of the Deposits of Founders Bank, Worth, Illinois

As of April 30, 2009, Founders Bank had total assets of $962.5 million and total deposits of approximately $848.9 million. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $188.5 million. The PrivateBank and Trust Company's acquisition of all the deposits was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's DIF compared to alternatives. Founders Bank is the 52nd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the twelfth in Illinois. The last FDIC-insured institution to be closed in the state was The First National Bank of Danville, earlier today.

That makes SEVEN today and SIX in Illinois!

by Calculated Risk on 7/02/2009 06:13:00 PM

Sextuplet failure
Like Whack-A-Mole, banks pop up
Hammered by the man.
by Soylent Green is People

From the FDIC: Millennium State Bank of Texas, Dallas, Texas

From the FDIC: As of June 30, 2009, Millennium State Bank of Texas had total assets of approximately $118 million and total deposits of $115 million. State Bank of Texas agreed to purchase essentially all of the failed banks assets. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund will be $47 million. State Bank of Texas' acquisition of all the deposits was the "least costly" resolution for the DIF compared to alternatives. Millennium State Bank of Texas is the 51st FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year and the first in Texas. The last bank to fail in the state was Sanderson State Bank, Sanderson, on December 12, 2008.

From the FDIC: Elizabeth State Bank, Elizabeth, Illinois

As of April 30, 3009, The Elizabeth State Bank had total assets of $55.5 million and total deposits of approximately $50.4 million. ...The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $11.2 million. Galena State Bank and Trust's acquisition of all the deposits was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's DIF compared to alternatives. The Elizabeth State Bank is the 49th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the tenth in Illinois. The last FDIC-insured institution to be closed in the state was Rock River Bank, Oregon, earlier today.

From the FDIC: First National Bank of Danville, Danville, Illinois

As of April 30, 2009, The First National Bank of Danville had total assets of $166 million and total deposits of approximately $147 million. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $24 million. First Financial Bank's, N.A. acquisition of all the deposits was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's DIF compared to alternatives. The First National Bank of Danville is the 50th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the eleventh in Illinois. The last FDIC-insured institution to be closed in the state was The Elizabeth State Bank, Elizabeth, earlier today.

Six down today.

by Calculated Risk on 7/02/2009 05:45:00 PM

John Warner collapse
This Lincoln State bank fell hard
Now worth a penny.

First State... Second Fail
Winchester, shot by bank Regs
Any more Partner?

A vein has opened
Red ink drains from Rock River
No stop to the flow
by Soylent Green is People

From FDIC: John Warner Bank, Clinton, Illinois

As of April 30, 2009, The John Warner Bank had total assets of $70 million and total deposits of approximately $64 million ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $10 million. State Bank of Lincoln's acquisition of all the deposits was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's DIF compared to alternatives. The John Warner Bank is the 46th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the seventh in Illinois.

From the FDIC: First State Bank of Winchester, Winchester, Illinois

As of April 30, 2009, The First State Bank of Winchester had total assets of $36 million and total deposits of approximately $34 million. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $6 million. The First National Bank of Beardstown's acquisition of all the deposits was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's DIF compared to alternatives. The First State Bank of Winchester is the 47th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the eighth in Illinois

From FDIC: Rock River Bank, Oregon, Illinois

As of April 30, 2009, Rock River Bank had total assets of $77 million and total deposits of approximately $75.8 million ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $27.6 million. The Harvard State Bank's acquisition of all the deposits was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's DIF compared to alternatives. Rock River Bank is the 48th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the ninth in Illinois.