by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2009 07:13:00 PM

Greater Atlantic
Demoted, downsized, shrunken
Sold to Sonabank
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Sonabank, McLean Virginia, Assumes All of the Deposits of Greater Atlantic Bank, Reston, Virginia

Greater Atlantic Bank, Reston, Virginia, was closed today by the Office of Thrift Supervision, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of October 20, 2009, Greater Atlantic Bank had total assets of approximately $203.0 million and total deposits of approximately $179.0 million. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $35 million. ... Greater Atlantic Bank is the 130th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Virginia. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was New Atlantic Bank, National Association, Norfolk, on August 12, 1993.

That makes six today.

by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2009 06:48:00 PM

Benchmark sets new high
(Is "down" the new "up" today?)
Not a wanted prize
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: MB Financial Bank, National Association, Chicago, Illinois, Assumes All of the Deposits of Benchmark Bank, Aurora, Illinois

Benchmark Bank, Aurora, Illinois, was closed today by the Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of November 16, 2009, Benchmark Bank had total assets of approximately $170.0 million and total deposits of approximately $181.0 million....

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $64 million. ... Benchmark Bank is the 129th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the twentieth in Illinois. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Park National Bank, Chicago, on October 30, 2009.

That makes five today ...

by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2009 06:12:00 PM

Wow, a bright comet...
Giant "Amtrust-Rex" looks up.
Annihilation

Cold Winter bears down
Many banks fall like snowflakes
No two are alike
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: HeritageBank of the South, Albany, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of the Tattnall Bank, Reidsville, Georgia

The Tattnall Bank, Reidsville, Georgia, was closed today by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of September 30, 2009, The Tattnall Bank had total assets of $49.6 million and total deposits of approximately $47.3 million. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $13.9 million. .... The Tattnall Bank is the 127th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 24th in Georgia. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was First Security National Bank, Norcross, earlier today.

And from the FDIC: New York Community Bank, Westbury, New York, Assumes All of the Deposits of AmTrust Bank, Cleveland, Ohio

AmTrust Bank, Cleveland, Ohio, was closed today by the Office of Thrift Supervision, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of October 27, 2009, AmTrust Bank had total assets of approximately $12.0 billion and total deposits of approximately $8.0 billion. ...

As part of this transaction, the FDIC will acquire a cash participant instrument. This will serve as additional consideration for the transaction. The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $2.0 billion.

Furthermore, the FDIC transferred to New York Community Bank all qualified financial contracts to which AmTrust was a party.

... AmTrust Bank is the 128th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in Ohio. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Peoples Community Bank, West Chester, which closed on July 31, 2009.

by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2009 05:11:00 PM

New white elephants
Gifts to US from Sheila Bair
No return receipt.
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: State Bank and Trust Company, Macon, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of the Buckhead Community Bank, Atlanta, Georgia

The Buckhead Community Bank, Atlanta, Georgia, was closed today by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of November 6, 2009, The Buckhead Community Bank had total assets of approximately $874.0 million and total deposits of approximately $838.0 million. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $241.4 million. ... The Buckhead Community Bank is the 125th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 22nd in Georgia. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was United Security Bank, Sparta, on November 6, 2009.

From the FDIC: State Bank and Trust Company, Macon, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of First Security National Bank, Norcross, Georgia

First Security National Bank, Norcross, Georgia, was closed today by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver....

As of September 30, 2009, First Security National Bank had total assets of approximately $128.0 million and total deposits of approximately $123.0 million. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $30.1 million. ... First Security National Bank is the 126th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 23rd in Georgia. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was The Buckhead Community Bank, Atlanta, earlier today.

by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2009 04:00:00 PM

While we wait for the FDIC ... a couple of market graphs:

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the S&P 500 since 1990.

The dashed line is the closing price today. The S&P 500 was first at this level in April 1998; about 11 1/2 years ago.

The S&P 500 is up 63% from the bottom (429 points), and still off 29% from the peak (459 points below the max).


The second graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2009 12:02:00 PM

In August, when it was reported that the July unemployment rate dipped slightly to 9.4% from 9.5% in June, I pointed out that the dip in unemployment was just monthly noise: Jobs and the Unemployment Rate

FAQ: How can the unemployment rate fall if the economy is losing net jobs, especially since the population is growing?

This data comes from two separate surveys. The unemployment Rate comes from the Current Population Survey (CPS: commonly called the household survey), a monthly survey of about 60,000 households.

The jobs number comes from Current Employment Statistics (CES: payroll survey), a sample of approximately 400,000 business establishments nationwide.

These are very different surveys: the CPS gives the total number of employed (and unemployed including the alternative measures), and the CES gives the total number of positions (excluding some categories like the self-employed, and a person working two jobs counts as two positions).
...
[T]he jobs and unemployment rate come from two different surveys and are different measurements (one for positions, the other for people). Some months the numbers may not seem to make sense (lost jobs and falling unemployment rate), but over time the numbers will work out.

Here are a couple of scatter graphs to illustrate this point ...

The first graph shows the monthly change in net jobs (on the x-axis) as a percentage of the payroll employment, and the change in the unemployment rate on the y-axis.

The data is for the last 40 years: 1969 through July 2009.

Click on graph for large image.

Although these surveys are different measures of employment - there is still a correlation - in general, the more payroll jobs added (further right on the x-axis), the more the unemployment rate declines (y-axis). And generally the more jobs lost, the more the unemployment rate increases.

But the graph sure is noisy on a monthly basis.

Look at the two red triangles - those are the data points for the last two months.

Notice that the increase in the October unemployment rate was much higher than expected based on the number of payroll jobs lost. And the opposite was true for November (the unemployment rate fell even though payroll employment declined slightly).

The second graph covers the same period but uses a two month rolling average:

Now we see a much sharper correlation.

The red triangles are the for the last two data points, and the Sept-Oct point is above the curve, whereas the Oct-Nov point is on the curve. All this means is the jump in the unemployment rate in October was higher than expected, and the decline in November balanced it out.

This also suggests the economy needs to be adding about 0.13 percent of payroll employment per month to keep the unemployment rate from rising. That is about 170 thousand net jobs per month - this accounts for both population growth and an expected increase in the employment-population ratio.

Note that the trend line is a 3rd order polynomial (equation on graph). When the economy starts to add jobs, more people start looking for work - and the relationship between net jobs and the unemployment rate is not linear. (see next graph).

If we use a six month rolling average for the above graphs, R-squared rises to 0.8.

This graph show the employment-population ratio; this is the ratio of employed Americans to the adult population.

Note: the graph doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

This measure was flat in November at 58.5%, the lowest level since the early '80s. However once the economy starts adding jobs, more people will be looking for work, and the employment-population ratio will start to increase. This means the stronger the economy, the more net jobs required each quarter to lower the unemployment rate by the same amount.

The bottom line is the decline in the unemployment rate this month was noise, and the unemployment rate will probably increase further. If the economy adds about 2 million payroll jobs next year, we'd expect the unemployment rate to still be at about 10% at the end of the year.

by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2009 11:09:00 AM

Two more graphs ...

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

Back in September, David Leonhardt wrote on the job churn rate in the NY Times:

Try thinking of it this way: All of the unemployed people in the country are gathered in a huge gymnasium that’s been turned into a job search center. The fact that this recession is the worst in a generation means that there are many, many people in the gym. The fact that the economy is churning so slowly means that there is not much traffic into and out of the gym.

If you’re inside, you will have a hard time getting out. Yet if you’re lucky enough to be outside the gym, you will probably be able to stay there.

Millions of workers are still stuck in that gymnasium, and a record number of workers have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks.

The blue line is the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. The red line is the same data as a percent of the civilian workforce.

According to the BLS, there are a record 5.887 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks (and still want a job). This is a record 3.8% of the civilian workforce. (note: records started in 1948)

Diffusion Index

The second graph shows the BLS diffusion indexes for total private employment and manufacturing employment.

Think of this as a measure of how widespread the job losses are across industries. The further from 50 (above or below), the more widespread the job losses or gains reported by the BLS.

Both the "all industries" and "manufacturing" employment diffusion indices had been trending up - meaning job losses are becoming less widespread.

Back in March, I pointed out the increase in the diffusion index was "a sliver of good news" in a very grim employment report. The diffusion index in March suggested that the situation was no longer getting worse.

Now the index shows job losses are less widespread. However this still shows a minority of industries are hiring, and the index will probably be above 50 when the employment recovery begins. (For more on how this is constructed, see the BLS Handbook)

Earlier employment posts today:

Employment Report: 11K Jobs Lost, 10% Unemployment Rate for graphs of unemployment rate and a comparison to previous recessions.

Seasonal Retail Hiring, Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers