by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2019 11:24:00 AM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From the AIA: Design services demand stalled in June, Project inquiry gains hit a 10-year low

Demand for design services at architecture firms decreased in June in comparison to the previous month, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).

AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for June was 49.1, which is down from 50.2 in May. Any score below 50 indicates a decrease in billings. Both the project inquiries index and the design contracts index continued to soften in June but remained positive.

“With billings declining or flat for the last five months, it appears that we are settling in for a period of soft demand for design services,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “With the new design contracts score reaching a 10-month low and the project inquiries score hitting a 10-year low, work in the pipeline may start to get worked off, despite current robust backlogs.”
...
• Regional averages: South (51.9); West (49.3); Midwest (48.9); Northeast (46.1)

• Sector index breakdown: mixed practice (54.3); commercial/industrial (52.3); institutional (47.0); multi-family residential (46.3)
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 49.1 in June, down from 50.2 in May. Anything below 50 indicates contraction in demand for architects' services.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction.  This index has been positive for 10 of the previous 12 months, suggesting some further increase in CRE investment in 2019 - but this is the weakest five month stretch since 2012.

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2019 08:52:00 AM

Earlier: Housing Starts at 1.253 Million Annual Rate in June

Total housing starts in June were slightly below expectations, and starts for April and May were revised down.

The housing starts report showed starts were down 0.9% in June compared to May, and starts were up 6.2% year-over-year compared to June 2018.

Single family starts were down 0.8% year-over-year, and multi-family starts were up 25.3%.

This first graph shows the month to month comparison for total starts between 2018 (blue) and 2019 (red).

Click on graph for larger image.

Starts were up 6.2% in June compared to June 2018.

Year-to-date, starts are down 3.7% compared to the same period in 2018.

Last year, in 2018, starts were strong early in the year, and then fell off in the 2nd half - so the early comparisons this year were the most difficult.

My guess was starts would be down slightly year-over-year in 2019 compared to 2018, but nothing like the YoY declines we saw in February and March. Now it looks like starts might be up slightly in 2019 compared to 2018.

Below is an update to the graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment).

These graphs use a 12 month rolling total for NSA starts and completions.

The blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions.

The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) increased steadily for several years following the great recession - but turned down, and has moved sideways recently.  Completions (red line) had lagged behind - however completions and starts are at about the same level now. 

As I've been noting for a few years, the significant growth in multi-family starts is behind us - multi-family starts peaked in June 2015 (at 510 thousand SAAR).

The second graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single family home and completion - so the lines are much closer. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions.

Note the relatively low level of single family starts and completions.  The "wide bottom" was what I was forecasting following the recession, and now I expect some further increases in single family starts and completions.

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2019 08:38:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately‐owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,253,000. This is 0.9 percent below the revised May estimate of 1,265,000, but is 6.2 percent above the June 2018 rate of 1,180,000. Single‐family housing starts in June were at a rate of 847,000; this is 3.5 percent above the revised May figure of 818,000. The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 396,000.

Building Permits:
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,220,000. This is 6.1 percent below the revised May rate of 1,299,000 and is 6.6 percent below the June 2018 rate of 1,306,000. Single‐family authorizations in June were at a rate of 813,000; this is 0.4 percent above the revised May figure of 810,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 360,000 in June.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.

Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) were down in June compared to May.   Multi-family starts were up 24% year-over-year in June.

Multi-family is volatile month-to-month, and  has been mostly moving sideways the last few years.

Single-family starts (blue) increased in June, and were down 0.8% year-over-year.

The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then eventual recovery (but still historically low).

Total housing starts in June were slightly below expectations, and starts for April and May were revised down.

I'll have more later …

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2019 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 12, 2019. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Fourth of July holiday.

... The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 87 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 21 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
...
“Mortgage rates increased across the board, with the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rising to its highest level in a month to 4.12 percent, which is still below this year’s average of 4.45 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Coming out of the July 4th holiday, applications were lower overall, with purchase activity slipping almost 4 percent. Refinance applications increased, with activity reaching its highest level in a month, driven mainly by FHA refinance applications. Historically, government refinance activity lags slightly in response to rate changes.”

Added Kan, “Buyer interest at the start of the second half of the year continues to outpace year ago levels, with activity last week up 7 percent.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) increased to 4.12 percent from 4.04 percent, with points increasing to 0.38 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Mortgage rates have declined from close to 5% late last year to around 4% now.

Just about anyone who bought or refinanced over the last year or so can refinance now.   But it would take another significant decline in rates for a further large increase in refinance activity.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 7% year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2019 07:40:00 PM

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for June. The consensus is for 1.260 million SAAR, down from 1.269 million SAAR in May.

• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for June (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2019 05:36:00 PM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports ("Stats Report"):

1) Overall sales increased to 9,313 in June, up from 9,079 in June 2018. Sales were down 9.9% from May 2019 (last month), and up 2.6% from June 2018.

2) Active inventory was at 15,188, down from 15,851 in June 2018. That is down 4.2% year-over-year.  This YoY decline in inventory follows seven consecutive months with a YoY increase in active inventory.

Months of supply increased from 2.07 in May to 2.12 in June. This is low.