by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2019 11:19:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

We continue to track 1.7% for 2Q GDP growth. [July 12 estimate]
emphasis added

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.5% for 2019:Q2 and 1.8% for 2019:Q3. [July 12 estimate].

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2019 is 1.4 percent on July 10, up from 1.3 percent on July 3. [July 10 estimate]

CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 1.5% annualized in Q2.

by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2019 09:29:00 AM

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 6 July

The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 30 June through 6 July 2019, according to data from STR.

In comparison with the week of 1-7 July 2018, the industry recorded the following:

• Occupancy: +2.6% to 65.3%
• Average daily rate (ADR): +2.6% to US$127.31
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): +5.2% to US$83.18
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2019, dash light blue is 2018 (record year), blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels).

Occupancy has been solid in 2019, close to-date compared to the previous 4 years.

Seasonally, the occupancy rate will now stay at a high level during the Summer travel season.

Data Source: STR, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2019 04:05:00 PM

Special note: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted a few years ago), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast.

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was down 0.4% in June compared to the rolling 12 months ending in May.   Outbound traffic was down 0.3% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year (February 5th in 2019).

In general imports have been increasing, and exports have mostly moved sideways over the last 8 years.

by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2019 11:19:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% (3.7% annualized rate) in June. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.2% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report.

Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.1% (0.7% annualized rate) in June. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.3% (3.6% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for June here. Motor fuel was down 36% annualized.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.8%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.1%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 2.1%. Core PCE is for May and increased 1.6% year-over-year.

On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 3.7% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 2.2% annualized, and core CPI was at 3.6% annualized.

Overall, these measures are at or above the Fed's 2% target (Core PCE is below 2%).

by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2019 10:15:00 AM

The BLS reported this morning:

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 1.4 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 249.747 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index was unchanged prior to seasonal adjustment.

CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). The calculation dates have changed over time (see Cost-of-Living Adjustments), but the current calculation uses the average CPI-W for the three months in Q3 (July, August, September) and compares to the average for the highest previous average of Q3 months. Note: this is not the headline CPI-U, and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

• In 2018, the Q3 average of CPI-W was 246.352.

The 2018 Q3 average was the highest Q3 average, so we only have to compare Q3 this year to last year.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows CPI-W since January 2000. The red lines are the Q3 average of CPI-W for each year.

Note: The year labeled for the calculation, and the adjustment is effective for December of that year (received by beneficiaries in January of the following year).

CPI-W was up 1.4% year-over-year in June, and although this is very early - we need the data for July, August and September - my current guess is COLA will probably be between 1% and 2% this year, the smallest increase since 2016.

Contribution and Benefit Base

The contribution base will be adjusted using the National Average Wage Index. This is based on a one year lag. The National Average Wage Index is not available for 2018 yet, but wages probably increased again in 2018. If wages increased the same as in 2017, then the contribution base next year will increase to around $137,600 in 2020, from the current $132,900.

Remember - this is an early look. What matters is average CPI-W for all three months in Q3 (July, August and September).

by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2019 08:39:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.
...
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 in June, its largest monthly increase since January 2018.
...
The all items index increased 1.6 percent for the 12 months ending June, a smaller increase than the 1.8-percent rise for the period ending May. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.1 percent over the last 12 months, and the food index increased 1.9 percent. The energy index, in contrast, declined 3.4 percent over the last 12 months.
emphasis added

Inflation was above expectations in June. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.