by Calculated Risk on 1/29/2011 01:47:00 AM

From Al Jazeera English (All times are local in Egypt.). Latest entries ...

6:38 am Internet and mobile phone networks are still down in Egypt.

6:30 am The headquarters of the ruling National Democratic Party in Cairo are still on fire.

A couple of stories ...

From the WaPo: Cairo in near-anarchy as protesters push to oust president

From the NY Times: Mubarak Orders Crackdown, With Revolt Sweeping Egypt

by Calculated Risk on 1/28/2011 08:38:00 PM

Taos bank demise
The high price of low living
Malfeasance results
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: U.S. Bank, National Association, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Assumes All of the Deposits of First Community Bank, Taos, New Mexico

As of September 30, 2010, First Community Bank had approximately $2.31 billion in total assets and $1.94 billion in total deposits ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $260.0 million. ... First Community Bank is the eleventh FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in New Mexico.

A billion here, a billion there ...

by Calculated Risk on 1/28/2011 07:42:00 PM

Tier 1 capital.
Without it, which banks might fail?
Today: First Tier Bank.
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: FDIC Creates the Deposit Insurance National Bank of Louisville to Protect Insured Depositors of FirsTier Bank, Louisville, Colorado

As of September 30, 2010, FirsTier Bank had $781.5 million in total assets and $722.8 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $242.6 million. FirsTier Bank is the tenth FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in Colorado.

That makes three today - and another one with no buyer.

by Calculated Risk on 1/28/2011 05:45:00 PM

From Al Jazeera English Mubarak announces he is dismissing the government

Update: From the NY Times: Mubarak Orders Ministers to Resign but Backs Armed Response to Egypt Protests

Bank Failure #8 in 2011: First State Bank, Camargo, Oklahoma

As of September 30, 2010, The First State Bank had approximately $43.5 million in total assets and $40.3 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $20.1 million. ... The First State Bank is the eighth FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Oklahoma.

Billions vanishing
Innumerable losses
When will perp walks start?
by Soylent Green is People

Update: Bank Failure #9 in 2011: Evergreen State Bank, Stoughton, Wisconsin

As of September 30, 2010, Evergreen State Bank had approximately $246.5 million in total assets and $195.2 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $22.8 million. ... Evergreen State Bank is the ninth FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Wisconsin.

Shoots crisp to stubble
Evergreen's gone never green
Roots dead from red ink
by Soylent Green is People

by Calculated Risk on 1/28/2011 03:45:00 PM

This is from housing economist Tom Lawler (CR Note: I probably jumped the gun on the timing of the major revisions, but I believe they are coming):

As many readers may recall, over the last year and a half I have noted numerous times that the NAR’s estimates for existing home sales appear to have understated the decline in existing home sales since 2006, with the “gap” increasing from 2007 through 2009. The basis for that assertion was that existing home sales based on property records in some key states declined materially more than did the NAR’s estimate of existing home sales in those states. In addition, CoreLogic’s estimates of existing home sales based on property records in its database (which covers “over 80%”of the US housing market) show materially larger declines since 2006 than do the NAR’s estimates.

The NAR is aware of these “discrepancies” and has been since at least 2009, but changing its methodology is not a trivial task. However, reportedly the NAR (working with others) has been looking into this issue, and is exploring whether it needs to change its methodology to get better estimates of “actual” existing home sales.

Late last evening CalculatedRisk wrote that

‘The NAR is planning on releasing revisions for the past three years (2008 through 2010) on February 23rd along with the January existing home sales report. Many housing analysts expect these revisions to be significant - and to be down. Assuming the revisions are down, this will also reduce the "distressing gap" between existing and new home sales.’

Now it is true that the NAR plans to release revisions to it monthly existing home sales data for the past three years on February 23rd. However, it ALWAYS revises its monthly data at that time of year each year to reflect annual changes in seasonal factors. I’m not at all sure that the NAR will also be ready next month to revise its existing homes sales data based on a new methodology – though ultimately I expect it will do so.

To give one an idea of what such a revision might ultimately look like, below is a table showing the NAR’s estimate for existing home sales from 2006 to 2009 versus CoreLogic’s count of existing home sales from its property records database. Full year 2010 data from CL are not yet available; in addition, CL’s data for the past several months (through October) will be revised upward as new data from county recorders become available. (The CL data include “normal” existing home sales, REO sales, and short sales). Also shown are “grossed-up” CL estimates assuming that the NAR’s existing home sales estimate were “correct,” [in 2006] which would imply that CL’s database covers about 84.25% of total existing home transactions. That assumption, of course, may not be correct, but I’m showing the data that way anyway.

Existing Home Sales (thousands)
Year	NAR	CoreLogic	Grossed-up CoreLogic
2006	6,478	5,458	6,478
2007	5,652	4,465	5,299
2008	4,913	3,720	4,415
2009	5,156	3,641	4,321

One reason for the NAR/property records sales estimates gaps appears to be that since 2006 there was a cyclical increase in the share of home sales through local MLS. This reflects both the greater difficulty sellers had in selling homes, as well as the increased use of the internet by buyers in their home search.

CR Note: This was from housing economist Tom Lawler.

by Calculated Risk on 1/28/2011 02:07:00 PM

Update: Al Jazeera English (ht km4)

The Telegraph is providing updates on events in Egypt.

Oil prices have surged.

From the Financial Times: Oil price spikes towards $100 and from Dow Jones: Egypt Unrest Sends Oil Prices Surging

Light, sweet crude for March delivery rose $3.61, or 4.2%, at $89.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange gained $1.63, or $1.7%, at $99.02 a barrel. It earlier touched a 16-month high of $99.63 a barrel.

I usually track the West Texas Intermediate price (just under $90). The divergence between the two, according to the Financial Times, is due to rising inventories at a key hub in Oklahoma.

Comments from Secretary of State Clinton: Egypt must respect citizen rights, reform

"We are deeply concerned about the use of violence by Egyptian police and security forces against protesters, and we call on the Egyptian government to do everything in its power to restrain the security forces," Clinton told reporters at the State Department. "At the same time, protesters should also refrain from violence and express themselves peacefully."

"We urge the Egyptian authorities to allow peaceful protests and to reverse the unprecedented steps it has taken to cut off communication," she said. "These protests underscore that there are deep grievances within Egyptian society, and the Egyptian government needs to understand that violence will not make these grievances go away."