by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2011 07:20:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Drop the Week Before Christmas and Increase the Week After

For the week ending December 24, 2010, the Refinance Index decreased 7.2 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3.1 percent from one week earlier. The following week, the Refinance Index increased 3.9 percent and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.8 percent.
...
For the week ending December 31, 2010, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.82 percent with points increasing to 1.11.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

The four-week moving average of the purchase index is at about the levels of 1997 - and about 17% below the levels of April this year - suggesting weak existing home sales through the first couple months of 2011.

by Calculated Risk on 1/04/2011 07:57:00 PM

From Eric Pryne at the Seattle Times: Bellevue Towers developer turns project over to lenders

The developer of Bellevue Towers, the region's biggest condo project ever, has turned over the development to lenders to avoid foreclosure.

More price declines coming ...

The new owners announced price cuts to help spur sales at the 539-unit development, where just 118 sales have closed since the two towers were completed nearly two years ago.

by Calculated Risk on 1/04/2011 04:00:00 PM

Based on an estimate from Autodata Corp, light vehicle sales were at a 12.55 million SAAR in December. That is up 13.1% from December 2009, and up 2.7% from the November 2010 sales rate.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for December (red, light vehicle sales of 12.55 million SAAR from Autodata Corp).

This is the highest sales rate since September 2008, excluding Cash-for-clunkers in August 2009.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate. The current sales rate is still near the bottom of the '90/'91 recession - when there were fewer registered drivers and a smaller population.

This was above most forecasts of around 12.3 million SAAR.

by Calculated Risk on 1/04/2011 02:00:00 PM

From the December 14, 2010 FOMC meeting. These are probably the key sentences:

While the economic outlook was seen as improving, members generally felt that the change in the outlook was not sufficient to warrant any adjustments to the asset-purchase program, and some noted that more time was needed to accumulate information on the economy before considering any adjustment. Members emphasized that the pace and overall size of the purchase program would be contingent on economic and financial developments; however, some indicated that they had a fairly high threshold for making changes to the program.

And on the outlook:

Regarding their overall outlook for economic activity, participants generally agreed that, even with the positive news received over the intermeeting period, the most likely outcome was a gradual pickup in growth with slow progress toward maximum employment. However, they held a range of views about the risks to that outlook. A few mentioned the possibility that growth could pick up more rapidly than expected, particularly in light of the very accommodative stance of monetary policy currently in place. It was noted that such an acceleration would likely be accompanied by significantly more rapid growth in bank lending and in the monetary aggregates, suggesting that such indicators might prove to be useful sources of information. Others pointed to downside risks to growth. One common concern was that the housing sector could weaken further in light of the considerable supply of houses either on the market or likely to come to market. Another concern was the ongoing deterioration in the fiscal position of U.S. states and localities, which could lead to sharp cuts in spending and increases in taxes. In addition, participants expressed concerns about a possible worsening of the banking and financial strains in Europe, which could spill over to U.S. financial markets and institutions, and so to the broader U.S. economy. ...

Regarding the outlook for inflation, participants generally anticipated that inflation would remain for some time below levels judged to be most consistent, over the longer run, with maximum employment and price stability. In particular, most participants expected that underlying measures of inflation would bottom out around current levels and then move gradually higher as the recovery progresses.

by Calculated Risk on 1/04/2011 11:03:00 AM

Note: The real key is the seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) compared to the last few months, not the year-over-year comparison provided by the automakers.

From MarketWatch: GM posts 7.5% gain in December U.S. sales

[GM] reported a 7.5% increase in December U.S. sales to 224,185 cars and trucks.

Once all the reports are released, I'll post a graph of the estimated total December light vehicle sales (SAAR) - usually around 4 PM ET. Most estimates are for an increase to 12.3 million SAAR in December from the 12.2 million SAAR in November. Sales in December 2009 were at a 11.1 million SAAR.

I'll add reports from the other major auto companies as updates to this post.

Update: MarketWatch reports: Ford 2010 sales up 19% vs year ago

From CNBC:

Chrysler says its sales for December of 2010 were up 16.4 percent from the same time in 2009. The carmaker sold 100,702 vehicles in December vesus 86,523 in the same month of 2009.

by Calculated Risk on 1/04/2011 08:59:00 AM

From Bloomberg: U.S. Office Market Has First Gain in Occupied Space Since 2007, Reis Says

Office buildings added 2.5 million square feet ... of occupied space in the fourth quarter, compared with a loss of 14 million square feet a year earlier, Reis said in its report. It was the first rise in net absorption since the fourth quarter of 2007.

The office vacancy rate was unchanged from the third quarter at 17.6 percent, remaining at the highest level since 1993, as supply also increased. ... “Vacancy has finally appeared to have stabilized,” Ryan Severino, an economist at Reis, said ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the office vacancy rate starting in 1991.

Reis is reporting the vacancy rate was at 17.6% in Q4 2010, the same as in Q3 and up from 17.0% in Q4 2009.

Reis should release the Mall and Apartment vacancy rates over the next few days.