by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2010 08:53:00 PM

Just a reminder ... in addition to the existing home sales report this morning, there is more negative news coming.

First, as I noted in the existing home inventory post, the months-of-supply will probably stay in double digits for some time and anything over 7 or 8 months of supply will put downward pressure on house prices. However it will take some time for reported house prices to start declining. The Case-Shiller house price index for June will be reported next week (really a 3 month average of April, May and June). And prices probably didn't start falling until July. The July numbers will not be reported until the end of September, and that will be a 3 month average of May, June and July. So it might take until the end of October to see the price declines in the Case-Shiller indexes.

On Friday, the second estimate of Q2 GDP will be released. In the advance release, the BEA reported real GDP increased at a 2.4% annualized rate in Q2. However subsequent economic releases for construction spending, inventory and trade all suggest downward revisions in the second release. The consensus is for a downward revision to 1.3% real annualized growth.

And next week, the ISM manufacturing index will be released - and this will probably continue to decline based on the regional manufacturing reports (I'm tracking all the regional reports right now because I expect a slowdown in manufacturing).

And next Friday, the August employment report will be released. I expect another weak report - and I expect the unemployment rate to start ticking up.

Also I think the European situation is starting to heat up again with bond spreads widening to the May crisis levels for both Greece and Ireland.

Of course the next couple of days will be busy too (New home sales on Wednesday, the MBA Q2 National Delinquency Survey on Thursday, the FDIC Q2 quarterly banking profile). We've definitely entered a period of downbeat economic news.

Note: I still think the economy will avoid a technical double-dip recession, but the odds are uncomfortably high - and it will probably feel like a recession to millions of Americans. It will be especially discouraging - if I'm correct - when the unemployment rate starts increasing again, and when reported house prices start falling again.

by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2010 05:32:00 PM

From MarketWatch: S&P downgrades Ireland on financial sector cost

The 10-year Ireland-to-German bond spread has risen to 318 bps, and is now above the peak during the European crisis in May. The peak in May was 306 bps.

The 10-year Greece-to-German bond spread is now 885 bps, just below the peak level of 963 bps in May.

by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2010 03:39:00 PM

From the Congressional Budget Office: Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output from April 2010 Through June 2010

CBO estimates that in the second quarter of calendar year 2010, ARRA’s policies:

They raised real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) by between 1.7 percent and 4.5 percent,

Lowered the unemployment rate by between 0.7 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points,

Increased the number of people employed by between 1.4 million and 3.3 million, and

Increased the number of full-time-equivalent jobs by 2.0 million to 4.8 million compared with what would have occurred otherwise.

The effects of ARRA on output are expected to gradually diminish during the second half of 2010 and beyond. The effects of ARRA on employment and unemployment are expected to lag slightly behind the effects on output; they are expected to wane gradually in 2011 and beyond.

Here is the CBO's estimate of the impact on GDP by quarter:

Change Attributable to ARRA, GDP change (percent)
		Low Estimate	High Estimate
2009	Q1	0.1	0.1
2009	Q2	0.8	1.3
2009	Q3	1.2	2.4
2009	Q4	1.4	3.3
2010	Q1	1.7	4.1
2010	Q2	1.7	4.5
2010	Q3	1.5	4.2
2010	Q4	1.1	3.6

Note: the impact on GDP growth (the headline number reported each quarter by the BEA), is the change in spending from one quarter to the next. The ARRA impact on GDP peaks in Q2 2010 and is lower in Q3 2010 by both estimates. This change will show up as a drag on GDP growth in Q3.

Less stimulus spending in Q3 was one of the reason I expected a slowdown in growth in the 2nd half of 2010. There are other reasons that I've listed before: the end of the inventory correction, more household saving leading to slower growth in personal consumption expenditures, another downturn in housing (lower prices, less residential investment), slowdown in China and Europe and cutbacks at the state and local level.

The existing home sales report this morning - especially the high level of inventory and downward pressure on prices - are a key part of the 2nd half story.

by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2010 01:33:00 PM

Note: Usually I don't post all the regional manufacturing surveys, however with the inventory adjustment over, export growth slowing, and domestic consumer demand sluggish, these surveys provide an early look at weakness in the manufacturing sector.

From the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Growth Continued to Ease in August; Expectations Drifted Lower

Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region advanced for the seventh consecutive month in August, but at a more modest pace than a month earlier, according to the Richmond Fed's latest survey. All broad indicators — shipments, new orders and employment — continued to grow but at a rate below July's pace. Other indicators were mixed, however. Capacity utilization grew nearly on par with last month, while growth in backlogs flatlined. Vendor delivery times grew at a slightly quicker rate and manufacturers reported somewhat faster growth in finished goods inventories.

Looking ahead, assessments of business prospects for the next six months were less optimistic in August. Survey contacts anticipated slower growth in shipments, new orders, capacity utilization, and capital expenditures and expected declines in backlogs and vendor lead time.

This is similar to the NY Fed and Philly Fed surveys - although the Philly Fed showed contraction in August. Growth in the manufacturing sector is clearly slowing.

by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2010 11:30:00 AM

Earlier the NAR released the existing home sales data for July; here are a couple more graphs ...

The first graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Inventory is not seasonally adjusted, so it really helps to look at the YoY change.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Although inventory increased from June 2010 to July 2010, inventory decreased 1.9% YoY in July. The slight year-over-year decline is probably because some sellers put their homes on the market in the Spring hoping to take advantage of the home buyer tax credit.

Note: Usually July is the peak month for inventory.

This level of inventory is especially bad news because the reported inventory is already historically very high, and the 12.5 months of supply in July is far above normal.

The months-of-supply will probably decline in August as sales rebound slightly and some sellers take their homes off the market, but I expect double digit months-of-supply for some time - and that will be a really bad sign for house prices ...

A normal housing market usually has under 6 months of supply. The following graph shows the relationship between supply and house prices (using Case-Shiller).

This graph show months of supply (through July 2010) and the annualized change in the Case-Shiller Composite 20 house price index (through May 2010).

Below 6 months of supply (blue line) house prices are typically rising (black line).

Above 6 or 7 months of supply, house prices are usually falling. This isn't perfect - it is just a guideline. Over the last year, there have been many programs aimed at supporting house prices, and house prices increased slightly even with higher than normal supply. However those programs have mostly ended.

This is a key reason why I expect house prices to fall further later this year as measured by the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic repeat sales house price indexes, although I don't expect huge declines like in 2008. My expectation is further price declines of 5% to 10% on the repeat sales indexes.

Notes: The Case-Shiller house price index for June will be reported next week (really a 3 month average of April, May and June). We really want to see prices for July - and those will not be reported until the end of September. And once again the July numbers will be a 3 month average. So it might take until the end of October to see the price declines that are already happening in the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2010 10:00:00 AM

The NAR reports: July Existing-Home Sales Fall as Expected but Prices Rise

Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 27.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units in July from a downwardly revised 5.26 million in June, and are 25.5 percent below the 5.14 million-unit level in July 2009.

Sales are at the lowest level since the total existing-home sales series launched in 1999, and single family sales – accounting for the bulk of transactions – are at the lowest level since May of 1995.
...
Total housing inventory at the end of July increased 2.5 percent to 3.98 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 12.5-month supply at the current sales pace, up from an 8.9-month supply in June.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in July 2010 (3.83 million SAAR) were 27.2% lower than last month, and were 25.5% lower than July 2009 (5.14 million SAAR).

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 3.98 million in July from 3.89 million in June. The all time record high was 4.58 million homes for sale in July 2008.

Inventory is not seasonally adjusted and there is a clear seasonal pattern with inventory increasing in the spring and into the summer. I'll have more on inventory later ...

The last graph shows the 'months of supply' metric.

Months of supply increased to 12.5 months in July from 8.9 months in June. A normal market has under 6 months of supply, so this is extremely high and suggests prices, as measured by the repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and CoreLogic, will start declining.

Ignore the median price! Double digit supply and lowest sales rate since 1996 are the key stories.

I'll have more soon.