by Calculated Risk on 7/05/2007 12:30:00 PM

For what it's worth, ADP reports:

Nonfarm private employment grew 150,000 from May to June of 2007 on a seasonally adjusted basis

The BLS reports June employment numbers tomorrow.

And from MarketWatch: Services expanding at best pace in more than year

More nonmanufacturing companies in the United States were growing in June than at any time since last April, according to a survey of companies released Thursday by the Institute for Supply Management.

The ISM nonmanufacturing index rose to 60.7% from 59.7% in May.

by Anonymous on 7/05/2007 12:01:00 PM

An update to this post:

A Brevard County judge on Thursday refused to shut down a Palm Bay appraiser's Web site that contained comments critical of the California-based appraisal management company First American eAppraiseIT.

The company was seeking a temporary injunction to prevent appraiser Pamela Crowley from making any comments, or posting comments from others, about it on her Web site, www.mortgagefraudwatchlist.org.

Crowley's Web site serves as a discussion platform for issues in the appraising industry. It also is a place for appraisers to report lending and appraisal fraud, and questionable activities in the industry.

First American eAppraiseIt acts as a middle party, finding appraisers for clients such as banks and mortgage companies.

Circuit Court Judge John Dean Moxley Jr. dismissed eAppraiseIT's request, because the company had not proved defamation or any financial harm based on the postings.

"If it's not defamation at this point, there's no need for an injunction," Moxley said. "What you asked for is not permissible under the law in the state. Therefore, I deny it."

And a word of warning for firms considering SLAPP suits against websites:

So far, one of the best-read postings to the site, which requires a registration, has been about eAppraiseIt's efforts to silence Crowley, Potts said.

by Calculated Risk on 7/05/2007 02:45:00 AM

From the WSJ: Number of Unsold Homes Increases

The number of homes on the market in 18 major metropolitan areas continues to grow.

Total listings of homes in these metro areas at the end of June was up 2.5% from May, according to figures compiled by ZipRealty Inc.

If the NAR number follows Zip Realty for June, then the June existing home inventory levels will be over 4.5 million - another all time record - and total inventory, including new homes, will be over 5 million units.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph is based on the Zip Realty estimate of the inventory increase for existing homes in June. Inventory usually increases in June, but the levels of inventory (already an all time record) are a reason for concern.

A 2.5% increase would put inventory at 4.54 million. A word of caution: we have seen the Zip Realty estimate vary significantly from the NAR estimate in the past, probably because the Zip Realty numbers are only a subset of the total NAR numbers.

The second graph shows the impact on the "months of supply" using the Zip Realty estimate for inventory, and the NAR estimate for pending home sales (down 3.5%).

This would put months of supply at about 9.4 months - very close to my estimate of the peak this summer of 9.5 months. Once again, this is just an estimate.

by Calculated Risk on 7/05/2007 02:39:00 AM

From the WSJ: Funds Accelerate Subprime Exit Strategy

Investors received a letter earlier this week from Braddock Financial Corp. of Denver. It said it was closing its Galena Street Fund, which mainly invests in bonds backed by subprime mortgages extended to borrowers with poor credit, and suspending redemptions until it can sell assets in the roughly $300 million fund.

by Calculated Risk on 7/04/2007 12:30:00 PM

Professor Hamilton looks at June auto sales.

by Calculated Risk on 7/04/2007 12:22:00 PM

From July 4th, 2005 in New York (just over 2 minutes long):