by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2015 10:05:00 AM

The BLS released the preliminary annual benchmark revision showing 208,000 fewer payroll jobs as of March 2015. The final revision will be published when the January 2016 employment report is released in February 2016. Usually the preliminary estimate is pretty close to the final benchmark estimate.

The annual revision is benchmarked to state tax records. From the BLS:

In accordance with usual practice, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is announcing the preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey employment series. The final benchmark revision will be issued on February 5, 2016, with the publication of the January 2016 Employment Situation news release.

Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. For National CES employment series, the annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have averaged plus or minus three-tenths of one percent of total nonfarm employment. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates a downward adjustment to March 2015 total nonfarm employment of -208,000 (-0.1 percent). ...

Using the preliminary benchmark estimate, this means that payroll employment in March 2015 was 208,000 lower than originally estimated. In February 2016, the payroll numbers will be revised down to reflect the final estimate. The number is then "wedged back" to the previous revision (March 2014).

There are 33,000 more construction jobs than originally estimated.

This preliminary estimate showed 255,000 fewer private sector jobs, and 47,000 additional government jobs (as of March 2015).

by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2015 08:45:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending September 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 264,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 275,000. The 4-week moving average was 272,500, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 275,750.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.

The previous week was unrevised.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 272,500.

This was below the consensus forecast of 275,000, and the low level of the 4-week average suggests few layoffs.

by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2015 08:40:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,126,000. This is 3.0 percent below the revised July estimate of 1,161,000, but is 16.6 percent above the August 2014 rate of 966,000.

Single-family housing starts in August were at a rate of 739,000; this is 3.0 percent below the revised July figure of 762,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 381,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,170,000. This is 3.5 percent above the revised July rate of 1,130,000 and is 12.5 percent above the August 2014 estimate of 1,040,000.

Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 699,000; this is 2.8 percent above the revised July figure of 680,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 440,000 in August.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.

Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) decreased in August.  Multi-family starts were up year-over-year.

Single-family starts (blue)  decreased in August and are up about 15% year-over-year.

The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

 The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then - after moving sideways for a couple of years - housing is now recovering (but still historically low),

Total housing starts in August were below expectations, and starts were revised down for June and July.   I'll have more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2015 06:18:00 PM

The focus tomorrow will be on the FOMC announcement, but there is some important data that will be released too ... such as August housing starts and the preliminary annual employment bench mark revision (that is usually very close to final revision).

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for August. Total housing starts increased to 1.206 million (SAAR) in July. Single family starts increased to 782 thousand SAAR in July. The consensus for 1.168, down from July.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 275 thousand initial claims, unchanged from 275 thousand the previous week.

• At 10:00 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of 6.3, down from 8.3.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the 2015 Current Employment Statistics (CES) Preliminary Benchmark Revision. From the BLS:

"Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. ... The final benchmark revision will be issued with the publication of the January 2016 Employment Situation news release in February."

• 2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC might raise the Fed Funds rate at this meeting.

• 2:00 PM: FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.

• 2:30 PM: Fed Chair Janet Yellen holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2015 02:31:00 PM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.1% annualized rate) in August. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% (1.2% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report.

Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers fell 0.1% (-0.8% annualized rate) in August. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.1% (0.9% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Note: The Cleveland Fed has the median CPI details for August here. Motor fuel was down sharply in August.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.3%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 1.7%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.8%. Core PCE is for July and increased 1.2% year-over-year.

On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 2.1% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 1.2% annualized, and core CPI was at 0.9% annualized.

On a year-over-year basis these measures suggest inflation remains below the Fed's target of 2% (median CPI is above 2%).

Inflation is still low.