by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2015 11:21:00 AM

The BLS reported this morning:

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) decreased 0.3 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 233.366 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index declined 0.2 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). The calculation dates have changed over time (see Cost-of-Living Adjustments), but the current calculation uses the average CPI-W for the three months in Q3 (July, August, September) and compares to the average for the highest previous average of Q3 months. Note: this is not the headline CPI-U, and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

Since the highest Q3 average was last year (Q3 2014), at 234.242, we only have to compare to last year. 

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows CPI-W since January 2000. The red lines are the Q3 average of CPI-W for each year.

Note: The year labeled for the calculation, and the adjustment is effective for December of that year (received by beneficiaries in January of the following year).

By law, COLA can't be negative, so if the average for CPI-W is down year-over-year, COLA is set to zero (no adjustment).

CPI-W was down 0.3% year-over-year in August.  We still need the data for September too, but it looks like COLA will be zero this year.

Contribution and Benefit Base

The law prohibits an increase in the contribution and benefit base if COLA is not greater than zero. However if the there is even a small increase in COLA, the contribution base will be adjusted using the National Average Wage Index.

From Social Security: Method for determining the base

The formula for determining the OASDI contribution and benefit base is set by law. The formula is applicable only if a cost-of-living increase becomes effective for December of the year in which a determination of the base would ordinarily be made. ...

This is based on a one year lag. The National Average Wage Index is not available for 2014 yet, but wages probably increased again in 2014. If wages increased the same as last year, then the contribution base next year would be increased to around $120,000 from the current $118,500.  However, if COLA is zero, the contribution base will remain at $118,500.

This is an early look. What matters is average CPI-W for all three months in Q3 (July, August and September).  Based on data for July and August, it appears COLA will be zero.

by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2015 10:06:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 62 in September, up from 61 in August. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Continues to Rise

Builder confidence in the market for newly constructed single-family homes continued its steady rise in September with a one point increase to a level of 62 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). It is the highest reading since November 2005.
...
"NAHB is projecting about 1.1 million total housing starts this year,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Today's report is consistent with our forecast, and barring any unexpected jolts, we expect housing to keep moving forward at a steady, modest rate through the end of the year.”
...
Two of the three HMI components posted gains in September. The index measuring buyer traffic increased two points to 47, and the component gauging current sales conditions rose one point to 67. Meanwhile, the index charting sales expectations in the next six months dropped from 70 to 68.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the West and Midwest each rose one point to 64 and 59, respectively. The South posted a one-point gain to 64 and the Northeast dropped one point to 46.

emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was above the consensus forecast of 61.

by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2015 08:34:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 0.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The gasoline index declined sharply in August and was the main cause of the seasonally adjusted all items decrease. ...

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in August, the same increase as in July. ... The 12-month change in the index for all items less food and energy also remained the same, at 1.8 percent for the 12 months ending August.
emphasis added

I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI. This was at the consensus forecast of a 0.1% decrease for CPI, and below the forecast of a 0.2% increase in core CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2015 07:04:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 7.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 11, 2015. The week’s results included an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday. ...

The Refinance Index decreased 9 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 16 percent compared with the previous week and was 5 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The Labor Day holiday shifted from the first week in September last year to the second week this year.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) decreased to 4.09 percent from 4.10 percent, with points increasing to 0.42 from 0.39 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index.

Refinance activity remains low.

2014 was the lowest year for refinance activity since year 2000, and refinance activity will probably stay low for the rest of 2015 (after the increase earlier this year).


The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.  

According to the MBA, the unadjusted purchase index is 5% higher than a year ago - but that is probably too low due to the shift in timing of Labor Day.  Last week, the MBA reported the index was up 41% YoY.   Next week will be a better YoY comparison.

by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2015 08:50:00 PM

From Tim Duy at Bloomberg: Why the Fed Is Likely to Stand Pat This Week

Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve is looking for a time with minimal downside risks to raise interest rates. The wavering global economy is likely creating enough downside risk to defer that first hike to a later meeting. But the Fed still wants to begin normalizing policy, and it will signal that it remains committed to a rate hike this year. Regardless of the global situation and the inflation picture, I suspect it will feel increasingly compelled to do just that as the unemployment rate drifts below 5 percent.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, the Consumer Price Index for August from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.

• At 10:00 AM, the September NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 61, unchanged from August. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.