by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2015 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 6.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 4, 2015. ...

The Refinance Index decreased 10 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 41 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The annual change is inflated due to the shift in Labor Day from the first week in September last year to the second week this year.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) increased to 4.10 percent from 4.08 percent, with points increasing to 0.39 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index.

Refinance activity remains low.

2014 was the lowest year for refinance activity since year 2000, and refinance activity will probably stay low for the rest of 2015 (after the increase earlier this year).


The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.  

According to the MBA, the unadjusted purchase index is 41% higher than a year ago - but is misleading due to the shift in timing of Labor Day.

by Calculated Risk on 9/08/2015 08:01:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Indecisively Higher

Mortgage rates moved back up into their recent indecisive range today, foiling a halfhearted attempt to move lower late last week. Much of the indecision is assumed to be due to the Fed's upcoming meeting. Many market participants think the Fed will hike rates for the first time since the Financial Crisis, though just as many think they'll hold off until December at the earliest. Mortgage rates are not directly dictated by the Fed's policy rate, but they tend to move higher during periods where the Fed is raising rates.
...
Most consumers will continue to see the same contract interest rates they've been seeing, and the adjustments will instead be seen in the form of slightly higher or lower closing costs. Most lenders continue to quote conventional 30yr fixed rates of 4.0% on top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 10:00 AM, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for July from the BLS. Jobs openings decreased in June to 5.249 million from 5.357 million in May. The number of job openings were up 11% year-over-year, and Quits were up 1% year-over-year.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Q2 Quarterly Services Report from the Census Bureau.

by Calculated Risk on 9/08/2015 04:43:00 PM

More good news ... the budget deficit in fiscal 2015 will probably decline more than 10% compared to fiscal 2014.

From the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) today: Monthly Budget Review for August 2015

The federal government’s budget deficit amounted to $528 billion for the first 11 months of fiscal year 2015, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That deficit was $61 billion smaller than the one recorded during the same period last year. Revenues and outlays were both higher than last year’s amounts, by 8 percent and 5 percent, respectively. Adjusted for shifts in the timing of certain payments (which otherwise would have fallen on a weekend), the deficit for the 11-month period decreased by $42 billion.

In its most recent budget projections, CBO estimated that the deficit for fiscal year 2015 (which will end on September 30, 2015) would total $426 billion, about $59 billion less than the shortfall in fiscal year 2014. ...

The Treasury will run a surplus in September, and it appears the deficit for fiscal 2015 (ends in September) will be below 2.4% of GDP.

by Calculated Risk on 9/08/2015 01:57:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.  These key markets hopefully show us changes in trends for sales and inventory.

For the ninth consecutive month, inventory was down year-over-year in Phoenix. This is a significant change from last year.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in August were up 9.2% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 22.6% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now down 13.7% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

Now, with falling inventory, prices are increasing a little faster in 2015 (something to watch if inventory continues to decline).   Prices are already up 2.5% through June (prices increased more in 6 months in 2015, than all of 2014).

August Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
Aug-08	5,660	---	1,004	17.7%	53,5691	---
Aug-09	8,008	41.5%	2,849	35.6%	38,085	-28.9%
Aug-10	7,358	-8.1%	3,129	42.5%	44,307	16.3%
Aug-11	8,712	18.4%	3,953	45.4%	26,983	-39.1%
Aug-12	7,574	-13.1%	3,382	44.7%	20,934	-22.4%
Aug-13	7,055	-6.9%	2,409	34.1%	21,444	2.4%
Aug-14	6,431	-8.8%	1,621	25.2%	26,138	21.9%
Aug-15	7,023	9.2%	1,588	22.6%	22,554	-13.7%
1 August 2008 probably includes pending listings

by Calculated Risk on 9/08/2015 10:42:00 AM

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for July today. According to BKFS, 4.71% of mortgages were delinquent in July, down from 4.82% in June. BKFS reported that 1.40% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 1.85% in July 2014.

This gives a total of 6.11% delinquent or in foreclosure. It breaks down as:

• 1,503,000 properties that are 30 or more days, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure.
• 886,000 properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure.
• 711,000 loans in foreclosure process.

For a total of ​​3,100,000 loans delinquent or in foreclosure in July. This is down from 3,785,000 in July 2014.

Press Release: Black Knight’s July Mortgage Monitor: Total Equity in U.S. Mortgage Market at $7.6 Trillion, Up $825 Billion Year-to-Date; $4.5 Trillion in Equity “Tappable” by Borrowers

Today, the Data and Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services, Inc. (NYSE: BKFS) released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based on data as of the end of July 2015. Looking at the nation’s population of mortgage holders and comparing first and second lien debt against May property values, Black Knight has determined that total home equity in the U.S. has increased by nearly $1 trillion in the past year to the highest level since 2007. As Black Knight Data & Analytics Senior Vice President Ben Graboske explained, this growth in available equity has direct implications for borrowers’ ability to access the equity in their homes.

“We’ve seen total home equity in the mortgage market expand by $825 billion in just the first five months of this year,” said Graboske. “At $7.6 trillion, total net equity is nearly 2.5 times more than it was at the end of 2011, and is at the highest level it’s been since the start of the housing crisis. To put this growth in perspective, consider that the average American homeowner with a mortgage has about $19,000 more equity in his or her home today than a year ago."

Click on graph for larger image.

From Black Knight:

Second lien HELOC delinquency rates are currently at 1.9 percent, the lowest level seen since April 2007

Delinquency rates on second lien HELOCs have declined by over 11 percent so far in 2015, slightly behind the 16 percent reduction on first lien mortgage delinquencies

There is much more in the mortgage monitor.