RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2015 10:18:00 AM
Monday, August 10, 2015
FNC: Residential Property Values increased 5.7% year-over-year in June
In addition to Case-Shiller, and CoreLogic, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and several other house price indexes.
FNC released their June 2015 index data today. FNC reported that their Residential Price Index™ (RPI) indicates that U.S. residential property values increased 1.2% from May to June (Composite 100 index, not seasonally adjusted).
The 10 city MSA increased 1.7% in June, the 20-MSA RPI increased 1.6%, and the 30-MSA RPI increased 1.4%. These indexes are not seasonally adjusted (NSA), and are for non-distressed home sales (excluding foreclosure auction sales, REO sales, and short sales).
Notes: In addition to the composite indexes, FNC presents price indexes for 30 MSAs. FNC also provides seasonally adjusted data.
The year-over-year (YoY) change was larger in June than in May, with the 100-MSA composite up 5.7% compared to June 2014.
The index is still down 15.2% from the peak in 2006 (not inflation adjusted).
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the year-over-year change based on the FNC index (four composites) through June 2015. The FNC indexes are hedonic price indexes using a blend of sold homes and real-time appraisals.
Most of the other indexes are also showing the year-over-year change around 5%, but increasing a little faster over the last several months.
Note: The June Case-Shiller index will be released on Tuesday, August 25th.
Las Vegas Real Estate in July: Sales Increased 15% YoY
by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2015 08:11:00 AM
This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities.
The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported GLVAR reports local home sales, prices continue to climb steadily from last year
According to GLVAR, the total number of existing local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in July was 3,815, up from 3,314 one year ago. Compared to July 2014, 20.4 percent more homes, but 5.5 percent fewer condos and townhomes, sold this July.There are several key trends that we've been following:
...
For more than two years, GLVAR has been reporting fewer distressed sales and more traditional home sales, where lenders are not controlling the transaction. In July, 7.1 percent of all local sales were short sales – which occur when lenders allow borrowers to sell a home for less than what they owe on the mortgage. That’s down from 11.5 percent one year ago. Another 7.7 percent of July sales were bank-owned, down from 9.1 percent one year ago.
...
The total number of single-family homes listed for sale on GLVAR’s Multiple Listing Service in July was 13,616, down 0.7 percent from one year ago. GLVAR tracked a total of 3,465 condos, high-rise condos and townhomes listed for sale on its MLS in July, down 4.4 percent from one year ago.
By the end of July, GLVAR reported 7,636 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer. That’s up 5.1 percent from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 2,320 properties listed without offers in July represented a 0.4 percent decrease from one year ago.
emphasis added
1) Overall sales were up 15% year-over-year.
2) Conventional (equity, not distressed) sales were up 24% year-over-year. In July 2014, 79.4% of all sales were conventional equity. In July 2015, 85.2% were standard equity sales.
3) The percent of cash sales has declined year-over-year from 35.6% in July 2014 to 27.1% in July 2015. (investor buying appears to be declining).
4) Non-contingent inventory is up 5.1% year-over-year. The table below shows the year-over-year change for non-contingent inventory in Las Vegas. Inventory declined sharply through early 2013, and then inventory started increasing sharply year-over-year. It appears the inventory build is slowing - but still ongoing.
| Las Vegas: Year-over-year Change in Non-contingent Inventory | |
|---|---|
| Month | YoY |
| Jan-13 | -58.3% |
| Feb-13 | -53.4% |
| Mar-13 | -42.1% |
| Apr-13 | -24.1% |
| May-13 | -13.2% |
| Jun-13 | 3.7% |
| Jul-13 | 9.0% |
| Aug-13 | 41.1% |
| Sep-13 | 60.5% |
| Oct-13 | 73.4% |
| Nov-13 | 77.4% |
| Dec-13 | 78.6% |
| Jan-14 | 96.2% |
| Feb-14 | 107.3% |
| Mar-14 | 127.9% |
| Apr-14 | 103.1% |
| May-14 | 100.6% |
| Jun-14 | 86.2% |
| Jul-14 | 55.2% |
| Aug-14 | 38.8% |
| Sep-14 | 29.5% |
| Oct-14 | 25.6% |
| Nov-14 | 20.0% |
| Dec-14 | 18.0% |
| Jan-15 | 12.9% |
| Feb-15 | 15.8% |
| Mar-15 | 12.2% |
| Apr-15 | 7.6% |
| May-15 | 7.8% |
| Jun-15 | 4.3% |
| Jul-15 | 5.1% |
Sunday, August 09, 2015
Sunday Night Futures
by Calculated Risk on 8/09/2015 10:55:00 PM
From the WSJ: Oil Futures Signal Weak Prices Could Last Years
Benchmark U.S. oil futures for September delivery are nearing the six-year low hit in March. But contracts for delivery in later years have taken an even bigger hit, with prices for 2016 and 2017 already trading below their March lows.This would be good news for consumers (bad news for producers).
That indicates that investors, traders and oil companies see the global glut of crude oil persisting beyond this year.
Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of August 9, 2015
Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, The Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI).
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are up 4 and DOW futures are up 20 (fair value).
Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $43.65 per barrel and Brent at $48.34 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $97, and Brent was at $104 - so prices are down over 50% year-over-year.
Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.60 per gallon (down about $0.85 per gallon from a year ago). Gasoline prices should follow oil prices down.
Update: Framing Lumber Prices down Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 8/09/2015 10:36:00 AM
Here is another graph on framing lumber prices. Early in 2013 lumber prices came close to the housing bubble highs.
The price increases in early 2013 were due to a surge in demand (more housing starts) and supply constraints (framing lumber suppliers were working to bring more capacity online).
Prices didn't increase as much early in 2014 (more supply, smaller "surge" in demand).
In 2015, even with the pickup in U.S. housing starts, prices are down year-over-year. Note: Multifamily starts do not use as much lumber as single family starts, and there was a surge in multi-family starts.
Overall the decline in prices is probably due to more supply, and less demand from China.
Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through July 2015 (via NAHB), and 2) CME framing futures.
Right now Random Lengths prices are down about 14% from a year ago, and CME futures are down around 24% year-over-year.
Saturday, August 08, 2015
Schedule for Week of August 9, 2015
by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2015 08:11:00 AM
The key economic report this week is July Retail sales on Thursday.
For manufacturing, the July Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report will be released this week.
For prices, PPI will be released on Friday.
10:00 AM ET: The Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI).
9:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for June from the BLS. This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.
Jobs openings increased in May to 5.363 million from 5.334 million in April.
The number of job openings (yellow) were up 16% year-over-year, and Quits were up 8% year-over-year.
2:00 PM ET: The Monthly Treasury Budget Statement for July.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to be unchanged at 270 thousand.
8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for July will be released.This graph shows retail sales since 1992 through June 2015. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). On a monthly basis, retail sales were down 0.3% from May to June (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 1.4% from June 2014.
The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.5% in July, and to increase 0.4% ex-autos.
10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for June. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in inventories.
11:00 AM: the New York Fed will Release the Q2 2015 Household Debt and Credit Report
8:30 AM ET: The Producer Price Index for July from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in prices, and a 0.1% increase in core PPI.
9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for July.This graph shows industrial production since 1967.
The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 78.1%.
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for August). The consensus is for a reading of 93.5, up from 93.1 in July.
