by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2015 08:13:00 AM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for July 2015.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for July 2015. During the month, the list fell from 309 institutions to 290 after 20 removals and one addition. Assets dropped by $5.9 billion to an aggregate $83.9 billion. A year ago, the list held 452 institutions with assets of $146.1 billion.

Actions have been terminated against Anderson Brothers Bank, Mullins, SC ($506 million); Pacific National Bank, Miami, FL ($379 million); Geauga Savings Bank, Newbury, OH ($357 million); The Peoples Bank, Chestertown, MD ($229 million); Home Loan Investment Bank, F.S.B., Warwick, RI ($216 million); Crown Bank, Edina, MN ($193 million); Farmers & Merchants Bank, Statesboro, GA ($170 million); Eagle Valley Bank, National Association, Saint Croix Falls, WI ($127 million); Evergreen National Bank, Evergreen, CO ($102 million); Surety Bank, DeLand, FL ($96 million); Peoples State Bank, Lake City, FL ($70 million); Liberty Savings Bank, FSB, Whiting, IN ($55 million); First Security Bank of Helena, Helena, MT ($40 million); Peoples Bank and Trust Company of Clinton County, Albany, KY ($33 million); and Hometown Community Bank, Cyrus, MN ($26 million).

Premier Bank, Denver, CO ($32 million) failed. Finding merger partners were Bank of Manhattan, N.A., El Segundo, CA ($481 million Ticker: MNHN); American Bank of St. Paul, Saint Paul, MN ($312 million); Pacific Rim Bank, Honolulu, HI ($131 million); and ProBank, Tallahassee, FL ($45 million).

The addition this month was Home Federal Savings and Loan Association of Nebraska, Lexington, NE ($56 million).

by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2015 06:27:00 PM

Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in June to 1.66% from 1.70% in May. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.05% in June 2014, and this is the lowest level since August 2008.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.

Note: These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".

Click on graph for larger image

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate has only fallen 0.39 percentage points over the last year - the pace of improvement has slowed - and at that pace the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% until 2017.

The "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%, so maybe serious delinquencies will be close to normal in 2017.  This elevated delinquency rate is mostly related to older loans - the lenders are still working through the backlog.

by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2015 04:16:00 PM

Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Dampened Outlook Causes Restaurant Performance Index Decline in June

As a result of a somewhat dampened outlook among restaurant operators, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) declined in June for the second consecutive month. The RPI – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 102.0 in June, down 0.4 percent from May and its lowest level in nine months. Despite the decline, June represented the 28th consecutive month in which the RPI stood above 100, which signifies continued expansion in the index of key industry indicators.

“Although same-store sales and customer traffic levels remained positive in June, the overall RPI declined as a result of dampened optimism among restaurant operators,” said Hudson Riehle, Senior Vice President of the Research and Knowledge Group for the Association. “The proportion of restaurant operators expecting sales growth fell to its lowest level in nine months, while operators’ outlook for the economy turned negative for the first time in nearly two years.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The index decreased to 102.0 in June, down from 102.4 in May. (above 100 indicates expansion).

Restaurant spending is discretionary, so even though this is "D-list" data, I like to check it every month. Even with the decline in the index, this is a solid reading.

by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2015 01:24:00 PM

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in June to 1.53%, down from 1.58% in May. Freddie's rate is down from 2.07% in June 2014, and the rate in June was the lowest level since November 2008.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.

These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". 

Note: Fannie Mae will report their Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate for May later today.

Click on graph for larger image

Although the rate is declining, the "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%. 

The serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.54 percentage points over the last year, and at that rate of improvement, the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% until mid-2016.

So even though delinquencies and distressed sales are declining, I expect an above normal level of Fannie and Freddie distressed sales through 2016 (mostly in judicial foreclosure states).

by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2015 10:02:00 AM

Chicago PMI July 2015: July Chicago Business Barometer Up 5.3 Points to 54.7

The Chicago Business Barometer increased 5.3 points to 54.7 in July led by a double digit gain in Production and accompanied by gains in New Orders and the other three components.
...
Companies reported a strong revival in output in July after five months of relatively weak business activity. Production rose sharply by 12.0 points to 61.8 amid a bounceback in inventory growth to the highest since April underpinned by a solid gain in New Orders.
...
Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said, “The recent weakness in the Chicago Business Barometer had sounded a few alarm bells over the resilience of the US economic recovery. The positive start to the third quarter, however, suggests that activity bounced back firmly as firms saw orders and output increase sharply.“
emphasis added

This was well above the consensus forecast of 50.0.


Click on graph for larger image.

The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for July was at 93.1, down from the preliminary reading of 93.3, and down from 96.1 in June.

This was below the consensus forecast of 94.1.