by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2015 08:05:00 PM

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, 10:00 AM: New Home Sales for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for an increase in sales to 550 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in June from 546 thousand in May.

A few excerpts from an FOMC preview by Goldman Sachs economist Zach Pandl:

The July 28-29 FOMC meeting is shaping up to be the calm before the storm. Short-term interest rate markets imply a zero probability that the committee will raise policy rates next week, but show a high likelihood of at least one hike before the end of the year. Thus, although changes to the stance of policy look very unlikely, the upcoming statement will be closely watched for any clues on the precise timing of liftoff (we continue to see December as most likely). We will be focused on three main items:
...
• First, the description of economic conditions will likely acknowledge the decline in the unemployment rate. We expect the statement to drop its prior reference to stable oil prices, but to leave other comments about inflation unchanged.

• Second, we do not expect additional language intended to prepare for rate hikes in the statement. In 2004 the FOMC used the “measured” phrase for this purpose, but Fed Chair Yellen downplayed the need for new guidance at the June press conference. A change along these lines is a risk for next week, however.

• Third, we do not expect dissents, but see them as a risk from President Evans (dovish) and President Lacker (hawkish).

by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2015 05:37:00 PM

Excerpts from a research piece by Michelle Meyer at Merrill Lynch:

The moment of truth
• The annual revision to GDP growth on July 30th will adjust estimates of growth over the past few years. If growth is indeed revised higher it would help solve the puzzle of low productivity growth.

• This will also be the first release of the new GDP and GDI composite. This will show a stronger trend of growth given that GDI has outpaced GDP recently.

• Taking a step back and examining a range of indicators reveals an economy expanding at a mid-2% pace, largely consistent with the Fed’s forecasts.
...
On July 30th, along with the first release of 2Q GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the 2015 annual NIPA revision. We will be looking for the following:

1. Will GDP growth be revised higher over the past few years? If so, this would imply faster productivity growth, which has been puzzlingly slow.

2. How will the revision to seasonal factors adjust the “residual seasonality” issue to 1Q GDP growth over the years?

3. Will the new aggregated GDP and GDI figure take the spotlight away from GDP?

Although it is hard to say with any certainty, we believe GDP growth is likely to be revised up modestly. This will likely leave the Fed comfortable arguing that the economy is making progress closing the output gap, allowing a gradual hiking cycle to commence.

And on Q2:

The first estimate of 2Q GDP is likely to show growth of 3.0%, which would be a bounce from the contraction of 0.2% in 1Q. However, it is important to remember that the history will be revised along with this report.

by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2015 02:45:00 PM

From Black Knight: Black Knight Financial Services’ “First Look” at June Mortgage Data: Foreclosure Inventory at Lowest Level Since 2007, Still Three Times “Normal” Rate

According to Black Knight's First Look report for June, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 3% in June compared to May, and declined 15.5% year-over-year.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined 2% in June and were down 23% over the last year.

Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 4.82% in June, down from 4.96% in May.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined in June to 1.46%.  This was the lowest level of foreclosure inventory since 2007.

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 439,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 212,000 properties year-over-year.

Black Knight will release the complete mortgage monitor for June in early August.

Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	June 2015	May 2015	June 2014	June 2013
Delinquent	4.82%	4.96%	5.70%	6.68%
In Foreclosure	1.46%	1.49%	1.88%	2.93%
Number of properties:
Number of properties that are 30 or more, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure:	1,549,000	1,591,000	1,728000	1,983,000
Number of properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure:	895,000	922,000	1,155,000	1,345,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:	739,000	754,000	951,000	1,458,000
Total Properties	3,183,000	3,268,000	3,834,000	4,785,000

by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2015 11:00:00 AM

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Declined Again

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the July Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity declined again in July but less so than in previous months.

“Our headline index was closer to zero than in May or June but was still negative, indicating further contraction in regional factory activity. However, firms expect a modest pickup in activity in coming months.”
...
Tenth District manufacturing activity declined again in July, but less so than in previous months. Producers’ remained slightly optimistic about future activity, although the majority of contacts indicated difficulties finding qualified labor. Most price indexes indicated continued rising prices, but the rate of increase slowed a bit for raw materials.

The month-over-month composite index was -7 in July, up from -9 in June and -13 in May ... the new orders index eased from -3 to -6, and the employment index dropped to its lowest level since April 2009, with many firms noting difficulties finding qualified workers.
emphasis added

Some of this recent decline in the Kansas City region has been due to lower oil prices.

by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2015 09:48:00 AM

The Chicago Fed released the national activity index (a composite index of other indicators): Economic Growth Picked Up Slightly in June

Led by improvements in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved up to +0.08 in June from –0.08 in May. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from May, and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in June.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged up to –0.01 in June from –0.07 in May. June’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was very close to its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
emphasis added

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Click on graph for larger image.

This suggests economic activity was close to the historical trend in June (using the three-month average).

According to the Chicago Fed:

What is the National Activity Index? The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.

A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.