by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2015 08:39:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales were down 0.3% from May to June (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 1.4% from June 2014.

From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $442.0 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent from the previous month, but up 1.4 percent above June 2014. ... The April 2015 to May 2015 percent change was revised from +1.2 percent to +1.0 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline decreased 0.4%.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales ex-gasoline increased by 3.5% on a YoY basis (1.4% for all retail sales).

The decrease in June was below the consensus expectations of unchanged, and sales in April and May were revised down. A weak report.

by Calculated Risk on 7/13/2015 05:56:00 PM

The verdict is almost unanimous. The Greek deal is bad for Greece, bad for Germany and bad for Europe. Everyone loses.

It appears the negotiations became personal - and destructive.  Europe was Schäuble'd.

From the WSJ: Third Time’s the Charm? Little Optimism Over New Greece Bailout

The plan repeats the central features of the previous bailouts in 2010 and 2012. In return for loans, Greece’s creditors—other eurozone governments and the International Monetary Fund—want to see stringent fiscal retrenchment as well as market-oriented overhauls of Greece’s economy.
...
Although heavy austerity greatly reduced Greece’s budget deficit, the economic collapse meant that its ratio of debt to gross domestic product—an indicator of solvency—rose even higher. ...
Critics including many economists and some policy makers have leveled a string of criticisms at Greece’s earlier bailouts. Among the most common charges: The scale and pace of fiscal austerity proved to be an overdose that Greece’s sclerotic economy and unstable political system couldn’t cope with. Forecasts for growth, tax revenues and privatization revenues were overly optimistic.

The definition of insanity: "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." (attributed to Einstein).

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for June will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.3% in June, and to increase 0.6% ex-autos.

• At 9:00 AM, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June.

• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for June. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in inventories.

by Calculated Risk on 7/13/2015 02:37:00 PM

From the WSJ: U.S. Annual Budget Deficit Remains Near 7-Year Low in June

The U.S. reported a $52 billion surplus in June, a month in which the government in recent decades has typically generated a surplus on account of corporate and individual taxes collected at month’s end.

The monthly surplus brought the budget deficit over the past 12 months to $431 billion, down nearly 20% from a year earlier.
...
Meanwhile, Congress has yet to raise the federal debt limit. The Treasury has been using emergency measures since mid-March to avoid breaching the ceiling.

The Treasury hasn’t said how long it might be able to do that, but budget analysts have said the emergency measures could last until November or December.

The most recent CBO projection was for the fiscal 2015 budget deficit to be 2.7% of GDP. Right now it looks like fiscal 2015 will be closer to 2.4% (a significant change).

by Calculated Risk on 7/13/2015 11:59:00 AM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for April were released two weeks ago. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: Case-Shiller Expected to Continue Recent Leveling-Off Trend in May

The April S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS) data published [2 weeks ago] showed home prices continuing to rise slightly less than 5 percent annually for both the 10- and 20-city indices, and slightly more than 4 percent annually for the national index. April marks the eighth consecutive month in which the national home price index has appreciated at a less than 5 percent annual appreciation rate (seasonally adjusted).

In April, the 10-city index appreciated at an annual rate of 4.6 percent, compared to 4.9 percent for the 20-City Index (SA). The non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 10-City Index was up 1 percent month-over-month, while the 20-City index rose 1.1 percent (NSA) from March to April. We expect the change from April to May to show increases of more than 1 percent (NSA) for both the 10- and 20-city indices.

All Case-Shiller forecasts are shown in the table below. ... Officially, the SPCS Composite Home Price Indices for May will not be released until Tuesday, July 28.

So the year-over-year change in for May Case-Shiller National index will be about the same as in the April report.

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast
	Case-Shiller Composite 10		Case-Shiller Composite 20		Case-Shiller National
	NSA	SA	NSA	SA	NSA	SA
April Actual YoY	4.6%	4.6%	4.9%	4.9%	4.2%	4.2%
May Forecast YoY	4.7%	4.7%	5.0%	5.0%	4.0%	4.0%
May Forecast MoM	1.1%	0.2%	1.2%	0.3%	1.0%	0.0%

by Calculated Risk on 7/13/2015 10:08:00 AM

From the WSJ: Eurozone Leaders Reach Unanimous Agreement on Greece

Eurozone leaders said Monday morning that they would give Greece up to €86 billion ($96 billion) in fresh bailout loans as long as the government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras manages to implement a round of punishing austerity measures in the coming days.

From the Financial Times: Eurozone leaders reach deal on Greece

The beatings will continue until morale improves.