by Calculated Risk on 7/13/2015 11:59:00 AM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for April were released two weeks ago. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: Case-Shiller Expected to Continue Recent Leveling-Off Trend in May

The April S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS) data published [2 weeks ago] showed home prices continuing to rise slightly less than 5 percent annually for both the 10- and 20-city indices, and slightly more than 4 percent annually for the national index. April marks the eighth consecutive month in which the national home price index has appreciated at a less than 5 percent annual appreciation rate (seasonally adjusted).

In April, the 10-city index appreciated at an annual rate of 4.6 percent, compared to 4.9 percent for the 20-City Index (SA). The non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 10-City Index was up 1 percent month-over-month, while the 20-City index rose 1.1 percent (NSA) from March to April. We expect the change from April to May to show increases of more than 1 percent (NSA) for both the 10- and 20-city indices.

All Case-Shiller forecasts are shown in the table below. ... Officially, the SPCS Composite Home Price Indices for May will not be released until Tuesday, July 28.

So the year-over-year change in for May Case-Shiller National index will be about the same as in the April report.

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast
	Case-Shiller Composite 10		Case-Shiller Composite 20		Case-Shiller National
	NSA	SA	NSA	SA	NSA	SA
April Actual YoY	4.6%	4.6%	4.9%	4.9%	4.2%	4.2%
May Forecast YoY	4.7%	4.7%	5.0%	5.0%	4.0%	4.0%
May Forecast MoM	1.1%	0.2%	1.2%	0.3%	1.0%	0.0%

by Calculated Risk on 7/13/2015 10:08:00 AM

From the WSJ: Eurozone Leaders Reach Unanimous Agreement on Greece

Eurozone leaders said Monday morning that they would give Greece up to €86 billion ($96 billion) in fresh bailout loans as long as the government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras manages to implement a round of punishing austerity measures in the coming days.

From the Financial Times: Eurozone leaders reach deal on Greece

The beatings will continue until morale improves.

by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2015 08:29:00 PM

After some absurd demands from Germany, it appears there might be some movement towards a deal with Greece tonight. But maybe not ... crazy.

Monday:
• At 2:00 PM ET, the Monthly Treasury Budget Statement for June.

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of July 12, 2015

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are down 11 and DOW futures are down 87 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $52.13 per barrel and Brent at $58.00 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $102, and Brent was at $105 - so prices are down almost 50% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.77 per gallon (down about $0.85 per gallon from a year ago).

by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2015 11:43:00 AM

From the Financial Times: France and Germany split over bid to break Greece deadlock

While Paris is backing Greek plans for a deal, Berlin is leading a group of sceptical countries that insist that Athens first passes significant reform laws in the next few days before negotiations can begin on a new rescue programme.
excerpt with permission

From the WSJ: Greek Deal Prospects Slim as Eurozone Leaders Convene

Finance ministers from the currency area convened earlier in the day, and discussed a draft statement that contains a “timeout” for Greece from the eurozone as a potential option, two European officials said Sunday. The statement, which may still change, will form the basis for crisis talks of eurozone leaders later Sunday, these officials said.

The statement says that “in case no agreement [on a new bailout program] could be reached, Greece should be offered swift negotiations on a timeout from the euro area, with possible debt restructuring,” one official said. The sentence is still in brackets, indicating that it doesn’t have the backing of all 19 eurozone countries.

However, French President François Hollande later said, “There is no temporary Grexit. There is only Grexit or not Grexit.”

Too funny. Offered "debt resturcturing" if Grexit? It is called bankruptcy.

From Bloomberg: Tsipras Calls for Honest Compromise With EU Struggling to Trust

“The situation is extremely difficult if you consider the economic situation in Greece and the worsening in the last few months, but what has been lost also in terms of trust and reliability,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters as she arrived.

by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2015 08:11:00 AM

The key economic reports this week are June Housing Starts on Friday, and June Retail sales on Tuesday.

For manufacturing, the June Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report, and the July NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys, will be released this week.

For prices, CPI will be released on Friday, and PPI on Wednesday.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will present the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.

----- Monday, July 13th -----
2:00 PM ET: The Monthly Treasury Budget Statement for June.

----- Tuesday, July 14th -----
8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for June will be released.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992 through May 2015. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 1.2% from April to May (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.7% from May 2014.

The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.3% in June, and to increase 0.6% ex-autos.

9:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June.

10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for June.  The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in inventories.

----- Wednesday, July 15th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM ET: The Producer Price Index for June from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in prices, and a 0.1% increase in core PPI.

8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of 3.5, up from -2.0 last month (above zero is expansion).

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for June.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 78.1%.

10:00 AM: Testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, July 16th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 282 thousand from 297 thousand.

10:00 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of 11.5, down from 15.2 last month (above zero indicates expansion).

10:00 AM: The July NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 59, unchanged from 59 last month.  Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

10:00 AM: Testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate

----- Friday, July 17th -----
8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for June from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in prices, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.

8:30 AM: Housing Starts for June.

Total housing starts decreased to 1.036 million (SAAR) in May. Single family starts decreased to 680 thousand SAAR in May.

The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 1.125 million (SAAR) in June.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for July). The consensus is for a reading of 96.2, up from 96.1 in June.