by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2015 02:21:00 PM

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.

From Black Knight: April Transactions U.S. Home Prices Up 1.0 Percent for the Month; Up 4.9 Percent Year-Over-Year

Today, the Data and Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services, Inc. (NYSE: BKFS) released its latest Home Price Index (HPI​) report, based on April 2015 residential real estate transactions. The Black Knight HPI combines the company’s extensive property and loan-level databases to produce a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates every month for each of more than 18,500 U.S. ZIP codes. The Black Knight HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales.

For a more in-depth review of this month’s home price trends, including detailed looks at the 20 largest states and 40 largest metros, please download the full Black Knight HPI Report.

The Black Knight HPI increased 1.0% percent in April, and is off 7.6% from the peak in June 2006 (not adjusted for inflation).

The year-over-year increase in the index has been about the same for the last seven months.

The press release has data for the 20 largest states, and 40 MSAs.

Black Knight shows prices off 39.5% from the peak in Las Vegas, off 33.4% in Orlando, and 29.1% off from the peak in Riverside-San Bernardino, CA (Inland Empire). Prices are at new highs in Colorado, New York, Tennessee and Texas, and several other cities around the country.

Note: Case-Shiller for April will be released tomorrow.

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2015 10:44:00 AM

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Still Contracting

Texas factory activity declined again in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose to -6.5 but remained in negative territory, suggesting a fourth consecutive month of contracting output.
...
Perceptions of broader business conditions worsened further, although not as sharply in June as in prior months. The general business activity index jumped nearly 14 points to -7, its highest reading since January.
...
Labor market indicators reflected slight employment declines and shorter workweeks. The June employment index was negative for a second month in a row but pushed up 7 points to -1.2. Fourteen percent of firms reported net hiring, compared with 15 percent reporting net layoffs. The hours worked index inched up from -11.6 to -10.7.
emphasis added

This was the last of the regional Fed surveys for June. Three of the five surveys indicated contraction in June, mostly due to weakness in oil producing areas. However there was less contraction in those areas in June.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through June), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through June) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through May (right axis).

It seems likely the ISM index will be weak again in June, but will probably increase from the May level. The consensus is for an increase to 53.2 for the ISM index, from 52.8 in May.

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2015 10:08:00 AM

From CNBC: Pending home sales rise 0.9% in May, highest level since 2006

Signed contracts to buy existing homes, so-called pending home sales, rose just 0.9 percent in May from April, according to the National Association of Realtors, after a downward revision to April's reading. That is slightly lower than analysts predicted, but is still the highest level on the association's index since April of 2006. Pending sales are now 10.4 percent higher than one year ago.

This was close to expectations of a 0.6% increase.

Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in June and July.

by Calculated Risk on 6/28/2015 09:15:00 PM

From the NY Times: Puerto Rico’s Governor Says Island’s Debts Are ‘Not Payable’

Puerto Rico’s governor, saying he needs to pull the island out of a “death spiral,” has concluded that the commonwealth cannot pay its roughly $72 billion in debts, an admission that will probably have wide-reaching financial repercussions.

And from the WSJ: Greece Orders Banks Closed, Imposes Capital Controls to Stem Deposit Flight

Greece shut down its banking system, ordering lenders to stay closed for six days starting Monday, and its central bank moved to impose controls to prevent money from flooding out of the country.

I hope Greece is ready with the Drachma (It seemed there was no way out four months ago).

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Pending Home Sales Index for May. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in the index.

• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for June.

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of June 28, 2015

• June 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 309 Institutions, Q2 2015 Transition Matrix

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are down 29 and DOW futures are down 217 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $58.80 per barrel and Brent at $62.55 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $106, and Brent was at $112 - so prices are down 40%+ year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.78 per gallon (down about $0.90 per gallon from a year ago).

by Calculated Risk on 6/28/2015 11:00:00 AM

Some comments from analysts at the Financial Times Alphaville: Greece: bank analysts and eurowatchers on what to expect on Monday

The analysts make good point on Greek banks, and also on the odds of the Greeks voting for more austerity, an excerpt:

"according to recent polls there may be a majority in the Greek population supporting the creditor-proposed package. Hence if the vote was a ‘yes’ then the creditor side will likely work hard at keeping Greece within the Eurozone. We may thus not see full-blown risk off sentiment tomorrow as there is still a fair chance of Grexit being avoided in the end."

However no analyst mentions that the austerity program failed miserably (see: Did Germany Fulfill their Promises? Did Austerity in Greece Deliver?). The definition of insanity is repeating the same thing (austerity) and expecting different results.  More austerity means more depression.  Europe has been Schauble'd!

And from the WSJ: ECB to Keep Level of Emergency Loans for Greek Banks Unchanged

The European Central Bank said Sunday it will freeze for now the level of emergency loans for Greek banks at Friday’s level, a step that could push the country closer to having to impose capital controls to halt a deposit flight that appeared to have accelerated over the weekend.

And from the NY Times: European Central Bank Limits Aid to Greek Banks Amid Debt Crisis