by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2015 05:24:00 PM

Nothing to add on Greece right now, so here is another forecast for June auto sales.

From WardsAuto: Forecast: SAAR Expected to Remain Above 17 Million in June

A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. automakers to deliver 1.48 million light vehicles this month.
...
The report puts the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales for the month at 17.2 million units, shy of last month’s 17.7 million SAAR, but ahead of the current 3-month SAAR (17.1 million) and the year-to-date SAAR through May (16.8 million).

The forecast reflects reports of very strong retail activity for most automakers continuing from May offset somewhat by a downturn in sales to fleets.
...
Projected June LV sales would bring year-to-date deliveries to 8.5 million units, a 4.6% improvement from same-period 2014. WardsAuto currently is forecasting 16.94 million LV deliveries for calendar 2015.

Another strong month, and on pace for close to 17 million for the year.

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2015 02:21:00 PM

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.

From Black Knight: April Transactions U.S. Home Prices Up 1.0 Percent for the Month; Up 4.9 Percent Year-Over-Year

Today, the Data and Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services, Inc. (NYSE: BKFS) released its latest Home Price Index (HPI​) report, based on April 2015 residential real estate transactions. The Black Knight HPI combines the company’s extensive property and loan-level databases to produce a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates every month for each of more than 18,500 U.S. ZIP codes. The Black Knight HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales.

For a more in-depth review of this month’s home price trends, including detailed looks at the 20 largest states and 40 largest metros, please download the full Black Knight HPI Report.

The Black Knight HPI increased 1.0% percent in April, and is off 7.6% from the peak in June 2006 (not adjusted for inflation).

The year-over-year increase in the index has been about the same for the last seven months.

The press release has data for the 20 largest states, and 40 MSAs.

Black Knight shows prices off 39.5% from the peak in Las Vegas, off 33.4% in Orlando, and 29.1% off from the peak in Riverside-San Bernardino, CA (Inland Empire). Prices are at new highs in Colorado, New York, Tennessee and Texas, and several other cities around the country.

Note: Case-Shiller for April will be released tomorrow.

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2015 10:44:00 AM

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Still Contracting

Texas factory activity declined again in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose to -6.5 but remained in negative territory, suggesting a fourth consecutive month of contracting output.
...
Perceptions of broader business conditions worsened further, although not as sharply in June as in prior months. The general business activity index jumped nearly 14 points to -7, its highest reading since January.
...
Labor market indicators reflected slight employment declines and shorter workweeks. The June employment index was negative for a second month in a row but pushed up 7 points to -1.2. Fourteen percent of firms reported net hiring, compared with 15 percent reporting net layoffs. The hours worked index inched up from -11.6 to -10.7.
emphasis added

This was the last of the regional Fed surveys for June. Three of the five surveys indicated contraction in June, mostly due to weakness in oil producing areas. However there was less contraction in those areas in June.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through June), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through June) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through May (right axis).

It seems likely the ISM index will be weak again in June, but will probably increase from the May level. The consensus is for an increase to 53.2 for the ISM index, from 52.8 in May.

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2015 10:08:00 AM

From CNBC: Pending home sales rise 0.9% in May, highest level since 2006

Signed contracts to buy existing homes, so-called pending home sales, rose just 0.9 percent in May from April, according to the National Association of Realtors, after a downward revision to April's reading. That is slightly lower than analysts predicted, but is still the highest level on the association's index since April of 2006. Pending sales are now 10.4 percent higher than one year ago.

This was close to expectations of a 0.6% increase.

Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in June and July.

by Calculated Risk on 6/28/2015 09:15:00 PM

From the NY Times: Puerto Rico’s Governor Says Island’s Debts Are ‘Not Payable’

Puerto Rico’s governor, saying he needs to pull the island out of a “death spiral,” has concluded that the commonwealth cannot pay its roughly $72 billion in debts, an admission that will probably have wide-reaching financial repercussions.

And from the WSJ: Greece Orders Banks Closed, Imposes Capital Controls to Stem Deposit Flight

Greece shut down its banking system, ordering lenders to stay closed for six days starting Monday, and its central bank moved to impose controls to prevent money from flooding out of the country.

I hope Greece is ready with the Drachma (It seemed there was no way out four months ago).

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Pending Home Sales Index for May. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in the index.

• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for June.

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of June 28, 2015

• June 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 309 Institutions, Q2 2015 Transition Matrix

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are down 29 and DOW futures are down 217 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $58.80 per barrel and Brent at $62.55 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $106, and Brent was at $112 - so prices are down 40%+ year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.78 per gallon (down about $0.90 per gallon from a year ago).