RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2015 08:33:00 AM
Thursday, June 25, 2015
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 271,000
The DOL reported:
In the week ending June 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 271,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 267,000 to 268,000. The 4-week moving average was 273,750, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 276,750 to 277,000.The previous week was revised up by 1,000.
There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
Click on graph for larger image.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 273,750.
This was below the consensus forecast of 273,000, and the low level of the 4-week average suggests few layoffs.
Wednesday, June 24, 2015
Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2015 07:24:00 PM
Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 273 thousand from 267 thousand.
• At 8:30 AM, Personal Income and Outlays for May. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.7% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.
• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for June.
Economist Tom Lawler sent me an undated table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for a few selected cities in May.
On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in most of these markets mostly due to a decline in short sales (Mid-Atlantic is up year-over-year because of an increase in foreclosures in Baltimore).
Short sales are down in all of these areas.
The All Cash Share (last two columns) is declining year-over-year. As investors pull back, the share of all cash buyers will probably continue to decline.
As Lawler noted last month: The Baltimore Metro area is included in the overall Mid-Atlantic region (covered by MRIS). Baltimore is shown separately because a large portion of the YOY increase in the foreclosure share of home sales in the Mid-Atlantic region was attributable to the significant increase in foreclosure sales in the Baltimore Metro area.
| Short Sales Share | Foreclosure Sales Share | Total "Distressed" Share | All Cash Share | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May-15 | May-14 | May-15 | May-14 | May-15 | May-14 | May-15 | May-14 | |
| Las Vegas | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 15.3% | 17.0% | 21.9% | 40.2% |
| Reno** | 5.0% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 17.0% | ||
| Phoenix | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 10.7% | 24.0% | 29.5% |
| Sacramento | 4.7% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 15.3% | 17.4% | 20.5% |
| Minneapolis | 2.4% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 13.9% | ||
| Mid-Atlantic | 3.4% | 5.2% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 13.8% | 13.3% | 16.2% | 17.2% |
| Baltimore MSA**** | 3.6% | 5.8% | 16.3% | 11.9% | 19.8% | 17.6% | ||
| Orlando | 3.9% | 9.2% | 22.8% | 24.7% | 26.7% | 34.0% | 33.9% | 43.8% |
| Florida SF | 5.3% | 9.6% | 25.7% | 24.6% | 31.0% | 34.2% | 43.4% | 48.9% |
| Florida C/TH | 3.2% | 7.6% | 20.6% | 19.7% | 23.9% | 27.3% | 69.5% | 72.1% |
| Miami MSA SF | 6.2% | 9.6% | 16.1% | 16.4% | 22.3% | 26.0% | 34.9% | 42.6% |
| Miami MSA C/TH | 3.2% | 5.9% | 17.6% | 17.9% | 20.8% | 23.7% | 65.8% | 70.1% |
| Tampa MSA SF | 4.3% | 7.1% | 20.0% | 22.1% | 24.3% | 29.2% | 35.3% | 40.6% |
| Tampa MSA C/TH | 3.0% | 4.9% | 13.6% | 18.6% | 16.6% | 23.5% | 57.5% | 62.7% |
| Northeast Florida | 26.7% | 36.8% | ||||||
| Chicago (city) | 16.2% | 21.6% | ||||||
| Hampton Roads | 17.4% | 21.3% | ||||||
| Spokane | 12.8% | 17.0% | ||||||
| Hampton Roads | 17.4% | 21.3% | ||||||
| Spokane | 12.8% | 17.0% | ||||||
| Richmond VA MSA | 8.5% | 13.9% | 14.9% | 19.4% | ||||
| Memphis | 14.3% | 15.6% | 28.3% | 31.6% | ||||
| Springfield IL** | 5.4% | 8.7% | ||||||
| Tucson | 25.6% | 31.3% | ||||||
| Toledo | 26.1% | 36.6% | ||||||
| Des Moines | 14.0% | 17.5% | ||||||
| Peoria | 17.9% | 19.6% | ||||||
| Georgia*** | 20.3% | 26.0% | ||||||
| Omaha | 15.9% | 19.4% | ||||||
| Pensacola | 31.3% | 32.6% | ||||||
| Knoxville | 20.5% | 22.9% | ||||||
| *share of existing home sales, based on property records **Single Family Only ***GAMLS ****Baltimore is included in the Mid-Atlantic region, but is shown separately here | ||||||||
ATA Trucking Index increased 1.1% in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2015 04:08:00 PM
Here is an indicator that I follow on trucking, from the ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Rose 1.1% in May
American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 1.1% in May, following a revised loss of 1.4% during April. In May, the index equaled 132.1 (2000=100). The all-time high is 135.8, reached in January 2015.
Compared with May 2014, the SA index increased just 1.8%, which was well below the 2.7% gain in April and the smallest year-over-year gain since February 2013 (-4.3%). ...
“The good news is that truck tonnage increased in May,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “But tonnage is certainly not strong at the moment as factory output is soft and there is an inventory reduction occurring throughout the supply chain.”
Costello noted that truck tonnage is off 2.7% from the high in January.
“I believe the inventory correction should end this summer and truck freight, helped by better personal consumption, will accelerate,” he said, “which is good because I think it is unlikely factory output will boost truck tonnage much until later this year or next year.”
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.Here is a long term graph that shows ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage index.
The dashed line is the current level of the index.
The index is now up only 1.8% year-over-year.
Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies increased in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2015 01:11:00 PM
According to Black Knight's First Look report for May, the percent of loans delinquent increased 4% in May compared to April, and declined 12% year-over-year.
The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined 2% in May and were down 22% over the last year.
Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 4.96% in May, up from 4.77% in April.
The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined in May to 1.49%. This was the lowest level of foreclosure inventory since January 2008.
The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 326,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 212,000 properties year-over-year.
Black Knight will release the complete mortgage monitor for May in early July.
| Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2015 | Apr 2015 | May 2014 | May 2013 | |
| Delinquent | 4.96% | 4.70% | 5.62% | 6.08% |
| In Foreclosure | 1.49% | 1.55% | 1.91% | 3.05% |
| Number of properties: | ||||
| Number of properties that are 30 or more, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure: | 1,591,000 | 1,463,000 | 1,670,000 | 1,708,000 |
| Number of properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure: | 922,000 | 952,000 | 1,169,000 | 1,335,000 |
| Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: | 754,000 | 764,000 | 966,000 | 1,525,000 |
| Total Properties | 3,268,000 | 3,179,000 | 3,805,000 | 4,569,000 |
AIA: Architecture Billings Index increased in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2015 10:12:00 AM
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.
From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index Returns to Positive Territory
Led by growing demand for new schools, hospitals, cultural facilities and municipal buildings, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) increased in May following its second monthly drop this year. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the May ABI score was 51.9, up from a mark of 48.8 in April. This score reflects an increase in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 61.5, up from a reading of 60.1 the previous month.
“As has been the case for the past several years, while the design and construction industry has been in a recovery phase, we continue to receive mixed signals on business conditions in the marketplace,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “Generally, the business climate is favorable, but there are still construction sectors and regions of the country that are struggling, producing the occasional backslide in the midst of what seems to be growing momentum for the entire industry.”
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 51.9 in May, up from 48.8 in April. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services.
Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. The multi-family residential market was negative for the fourth consecutive month - and this might be indicating a slowdown for apartments - or at least less growth.
According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction. This index was positive in 10 of the last 12 months, suggesting an increase in CRE investment in 2015.
